MAJOR COASTAL STORM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

***Next update on or around 4/29/2012.***

The latest forecasts are converging on a major storm for the late weekend. With even half of its potential, it would be the biggest storm in months – possibly the biggest since last October – and it would go a long way toward alleviating the severe, short-term drought conditions that have developed around the region since the wintertime.

Things get started Saturday, as a cold front ahead of the main storm pushes its way through the region with a threat of scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Some areas, particularly from NYC north and west could pick up 1/2-1 inch of rainfall.

Despite some misleading forecasts, the weekend is NOT a complete washout:

Then on Sunday, strong low pressure from the gulf will meander through the area, with heavy, soaking rains and a driving easterly wind overspreading the region Sunday afternoon and continuing through around mid-afternoon Monday. Thereafter, scattered lighter rains may persist intermittently from Monday night through Tuesday, before clearing finally ensues behind the departing storm system.

The potential is high for several inches of rainfall through the period from late Saturday through Tuesday, with 5-day cumulative totals exceeding 3 inches in some spotst; most places will easily average around 1 to 2 inches.

Latest short-term models are bullish now on a very heavy rain event for most, if not all of the tri-state area.

The NAM model shows widespread 3 inch plus amounts in red and deep red colors:

The best potential for highway flooding will occur with the heaviest period of rainfall, which looks to be Sunday afternoon through the Monday morning commute.

There is a threat of coastal flooding during Sunday evening and early Monday's high tide cycles. WInds will also mount along the coast, and could gust over 50mph Sunday night into Monday morning.

Incidentally, a damaging, heavy snowfall may result from this storm for Western New York and Pennsylvania:

Temps will be be in the 50s on Sunday through Tuesday, after being very warm on Saturday.

Intellicast:

Beyond Wednesday, temps will come up a bit to near normal, and things will briefly dry out for mid-week.  However, clouds will be stubborn to completely leave the picture, particularly during the day time hours for much of the week.

Another system (weaker than the impending storm and quick-moving) will bring another round of rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday, before partial clearing begins again Thursday night.

No significant warmth appears on the horizon; this is a big flip from forecast models which were signaling big-time warmth for the last weekend in April. Temps will hover around 60 for daytime highs, and lows will be in the 40s.

The weekend next weekend looks dry for now.

stay tuned. 

JB'S MAP FOR STORM

This was out on the weatherbell site a few days ago, but he just tweeted it to all twittering twitters a few hours ago:

He doesn't specify rain amounts. it's a bit disappointing in that regard, but here it is:

ENSEMBLES WEST, EURO WEST!

The track of the storm is still in question. The general idea remains the same from the video yesterday, so check it out. Another overview will come tomorrow, before a 9-day hiatus from posting commences.

The GFS has many different variations of the precip totals around here. Its "ensemble" forecast has many members going with the 2-inch-plus idea that a more inland track would produce.

The euro model, after being east yesterday (see video) is now west on today's run, singing the tune of a heavier rain event here, and some Western New England snows!

VIDEO: DROUGHT DENTER OR DROUGHT BUSTER SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY?

Full Screen Version

GFS HINTING (AGAIN) AT WARM END TO APRIL AFTER UNSETTLED WEEKEND

The situation with the rain is still in the details, as a lot of model waffling is going on. I'll probably have a video tomorrow and one final update on Friday before i head out on travels. But the GFS tonight is signaling a return to warmer-than-normal temps for a 3-4 day period once we get rid of the eastern storm this weekend... Here is the men temp for next Thursday, showing much above normal readings building back into the eastern states in a big way. This would last through much of the weekend (verbatim) and then back off as we delve into the new month, but it is something that the model has been hinting at for a while now (to a varying degree, with some flip-flops not withstanding)

EASTERN WEEKEND STORM MAY BE THE MINI-DROUGHT’S DEATH KNELL

Here’s what I take from today’s various discussions form all different places:

1.  A major storm will develop along the east coast this weekend, and deliver much needed rain to parts, if not all of the tri state area. Timing is most likely going to be Sunday night into Monday, and possibly beyond if the storm slows to a crawl, but the evolution is still in doubt. The only outlet throwing out amounts that I could find was our forecast office in Upton, which hinted at up to two inches of rain if everything comes together.

2. Paul Pastelok, the Long Range Guru at Accuweather.com was quoted in a story today saying that the pattern will be conducive to more rainfall as we head into May. This idea is supported nicely by Joe Bastardi over at Weatherbell.

3. Barring a complete miss to our south or a fade too far out to sea, this storm this weekend COULD be the beginning of the end for the mini-drought we’ve been experiencing from the late fall to the present day. In addition, the prospects of summer-like temperatures are going to be sparse the next week to ten days, and there is support for below-normal temps with the storm threat in the day 6-10 time period, according to NOAA. Thereafter, towards the latter half of the week next week, warmer temps may try to make inroads for the last weekend in April.

HOT SHOT, COOLER MIDWEEK, POSSIBLE WEEKEND STORM HIGHLIGHT THIS WEEK

1. Hottest weather of the spring Monday (tomorrow) as advertised here for a while now. Gradually cooling temps through the week, but still mild overall.

NOAA:

 Intellicast:

2. Mid-week rain chances have dwindled, as storm will run out of moisture and part will stay to our south. Dry pattern means that weak impulses can only muster scattered showers Thursday and Thursday night, but nothing significant.

3. Growing threat of weekend storminess and cooler weather for early next week, as intense storm may try to form along the coast and deliver soaking rainfall Saturday into Sunday. Bares watching.

4. Mid week update will cover storm threat for weekend via a video

5. Overview hiatus due to travel begins this weekend and lasts through the 29th. Updates to resume on or after this date.

QUICK POST, WITH MORE LATER ON

In the face of conflicting signals, Weatherbell's been riding the idea that a cool period would follow the front-loaded warm week overall this week. Now, we're seeing the latest GFS mode come around to that idea in a big way, with its 7-day mean temperatures from this Tuesday through next Tuesday the 24rd looking very cool, particularly as we head for the period for this coming Saturday through Tuesday of next week

This is something to watch for

Now, if this pans out (the cool period) will it mean an opportunity for substantial rain? Already i notice that the mid week rain threat mentioned in a previous post is now basically off the table, as a developing low pressure area gets shunted out to sea mid week...

more later.