The latest forecasts are converging on a major storm for the late weekend. With even half of its potential, it would be the biggest storm in months – possibly the biggest since last October – and it would go a long way toward alleviating the severe, short-term drought conditions that have developed around the region since the wintertime.
Things get started Saturday, as a cold front ahead of the main storm pushes its way through the region with a threat of scattered thunderstorms in the late afternoon. Some areas, particularly from NYC north and west could pick up 1/2-1 inch of rainfall.
Despite some misleading forecasts, the weekend is NOT a complete washout:
Despite some misleading forecasts, the weekend is NOT a complete washout:
Then on Sunday, strong low pressure from the gulf will meander through the area, with heavy, soaking rains and a driving easterly wind overspreading the region Sunday afternoon and continuing through around mid-afternoon Monday. Thereafter, scattered lighter rains may persist intermittently from Monday night through Tuesday, before clearing finally ensues behind the departing storm system.
The potential is high for several inches of rainfall through the period from late Saturday through Tuesday, with 5-day cumulative totals exceeding 3 inches in some spotst; most places will easily average around 1 to 2 inches.
Latest short-term models are bullish now on a very heavy rain event for most, if not all of the tri-state area.
The NAM model shows widespread 3 inch plus amounts in red and deep red colors:
The best potential for highway flooding will occur with the heaviest period of rainfall, which looks to be Sunday afternoon through the Monday morning commute.
Latest short-term models are bullish now on a very heavy rain event for most, if not all of the tri-state area.
The NAM model shows widespread 3 inch plus amounts in red and deep red colors:
The best potential for highway flooding will occur with the heaviest period of rainfall, which looks to be Sunday afternoon through the Monday morning commute.
There is a threat of coastal flooding during Sunday evening and early Monday's high tide cycles. WInds will also mount along the coast, and could gust over 50mph Sunday night into Monday morning.
Incidentally, a damaging, heavy snowfall may result from this storm for Western New York and Pennsylvania:
Temps will be be in the 50s on Sunday through Tuesday, after being very warm on Saturday.
Intellicast:
Beyond Wednesday, temps will come up a bit to near normal, and things will briefly dry out for mid-week. However, clouds will be stubborn to completely leave the picture, particularly during the day time hours for much of the week.
Another system (weaker than the impending storm and quick-moving) will bring another round of rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday, before partial clearing begins again Thursday night.
No significant warmth appears on the horizon; this is a big flip from forecast models which were signaling big-time warmth for the last weekend in April. Temps will hover around 60 for daytime highs, and lows will be in the 40s.
The weekend next weekend looks dry for now.
stay tuned.
Another system (weaker than the impending storm and quick-moving) will bring another round of rainfall Wednesday night into early Thursday, before partial clearing begins again Thursday night.
No significant warmth appears on the horizon; this is a big flip from forecast models which were signaling big-time warmth for the last weekend in April. Temps will hover around 60 for daytime highs, and lows will be in the 40s.
The weekend next weekend looks dry for now.
stay tuned.
Very exciting. good job.
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