Wednesday, November 20, 2013

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SUNDAY, WITH RECORD COLD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING

The latest push of arctic air over the eastern states will out-do the last two shots beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Monday.
The worst of the cold will be accompanied by very strong gusty winds Saturday night through Sunday, so that wind-chill values will be in the teens on Sunday and Sunday night, with actual high temps struggling to reach the mid 30s. The point-and-click temps from a few days ago depicting highs near 40 on Sunday are in retreat mode, as the models pick up on the ferocity of the cold, which, for the time of year compared to normal, are nothing short of brutal!



Old Intellicast Temps From Monday




New Intellicast Temps
NOAA Forecast for this Sunday's Highs back on Monday

New NOAA forecasted HIGHS Sunday



Temps will come up gradually Monday; winds will relax on Monday, but highs will still be well below normal levels, only making to the mid and upper 30s for high temps.


Tuesday and Wednesday are problematic. A series of storm systems will be the focus for the extended forecast.
Overall, the pattern is becoming more volatile. Airport travel during one of the busiest times of the year next week may be a big issue nationwide, even if our area does not feel the effects of any particular storm.


In terms of our weather, the development of a coastal storm (and its path) and a renewed shot of well below normal temps for late next week will have to be fine-tuned over the weekend.
Thanksgiving weekend looks chilly at this time.


PRECIP: The sure shot at rain will arrive on Friday, but amounts and intensity will be very light. A coastal storm will not get its act together this weekend. The bulk of the steadier rains should arrive with the passage of the front sometime Saturday morning, before things clear out. 


Small disturbances on the heels of the powerful arctic frontal boundary on Saturday evening will lead to the development of snow showers in most locations.

more to come this weekend...

Monday, November 18, 2013

MORE FRIGID TEMPS ON TAP TO OPEN THANKSGIVING WEEK

After a tranquil, late week temp rebound, we'll see the development of a storm for Saturday night into Sunday. This storm will most likely bring us a chilly rainfall and gusty winds during this time frame. Some wet snow flakes will mix at the end when precip lightens up Sunday morning. Well north and west of the city,  there is the prospect of a wet snowfall at the end of the storm, but details are still in the works.

What is much more certain is a renewed push of well-below normal temps for Sunday and Monday, with some relaxation for Tuesday. The intellicast temps are cold, but likely overdone for Sunday; low-level cold rushing in behind the storm should be plentiful, which is tough for forecast models to pick up.

Intellicast
Notice how far south the freezing line is for daytime HIGHS on Sunday in the NOAA graphic. Also notice that readings are only near 20F up near Minnesota!

NOAA HIGHS Sunday


With all of Canada covered in snow, combined with the plunging of the jet stream like we've seen for the past two weeks or so, the stage is set for more waves of winter-like air to have a free pass at the eastern states as we move into December.

NAFES Model Temps Show Well Below Normal For 11/26-12/1
more tomorrow or Wednesday