FINAL UPDATE: SNOWSTORM FEB 1-2

The current forecast is a huge challenge yet again. Warm air will try and bully its way up the coast during the storm, but only make so much progress before getting beaten back by cold, denser air to the north of it. It is this boundary which will not only mark where the heaviest snows fall, but also where big problems with ice accumulation could occur on Monday during the morning.

Snow will begin in all locations in the evening on Sunday and continue to fall overnight.

During the overnight, plain rain probably gets into a good part of Jersey, saving the day there. But further north towards the city, Long Island and points north, headaches will start to mount by rush hour Monday. By mid to late morning, the green area is liable to have pockets of treacherous icing conditions which could be hard to clean up. In addition, brisk winds will follow in behind the storm, making some power lines vulnerable in the heaviest concentration of icing.

The precip should be done by midday Monday in most areas.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM, THEN BITTER COLD FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK

A far-reaching winter storm will affect the region Sunday night into Monday afternoon with moderate to heavy snow. We also need to monitor for mixing issues along the coast, which could cut down accumulations there. 

Accuweather.com

The erratic models have shifted the track more in our direction and in general, are converging on a storm that would deliver widespread totals of over 4 inches or more, with greater certainty of over 6 inches in the hudson Valley and all of Connecticut. 

Light snow will break out Sunday evening and become moderate to heavy at times overnight Sunday through Monday morning. Snow will taper off around noon on Monday.

  

The vast, far-reaching storm will affect areas of the mid-west all the way to the eastern seaboard (15 states in total); air travel will be significantly impacted throughout the weekend and through a good portion of Monday.

Behind the storm, dangerous cold will re-assert itself across the region. A deep snow pack will once again combine with a frigid Arctic air mass, which, in tandem will send actual air temps to the single digits Monday night and again Tuesday night. Wind-chill values will plummet to as much as -20 degrees on Tuesday. 

Clima: Smartphone App

The frigid blast of air will relent slowly through mid-week.

The active, wintry pattern will continue to produce generally cold, stormy weather through at least the 10^th, and probably beyond that time.

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Map to follow soon....

Stay tuned.

VERY COLD WEATHER SWEEPS IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY

1. On the heels of the blizzard, an Arctic front will swing through on Friday, re-enforcing the cold for the weekend. Before that, light snow should break out before the front comes through; expect light snow accumulations from Thursday night through early Friday morning, which will freshen the snow pack and also cause slippery travel on roadways.

Accuweather.com

2. Temps drop sharply friday afternoon and night, with single-digit lows likely overnight Friday night. Strong winds Friday night through most of Saturday will make for dangerously cold conditions to people with prolonged exposure to the elements.

Rutgers University Snow Lab
Left: Snow Cover 12/22/14
Right: Current Snow Cover

3. Storm cuts across the Mid-Atlantic Sunday night into Monday, with perhaps some light snow. There's a small chance that the storm puts down a few inches during this time frame, but the latest trends point towards a dry period for the majority of the weekend into early next week.

7online.com/weather

4. Renewed cold follows for Monday night into mid-week next week. Highs will once again struggle to get into the 20s for Tuesday, with wicked wind-chill values.

5. Overall cold pattern will combine with frequent storm chances through much of February; above normal snowfall is likely.

6. Blizzard Recap: The Snow Idea Here Vs. Reality.

FINAL UPDATE: BLIZZARD OF 2015

The latest information has led me to increase snowfall amounts from the previous post at 1am this morning:

Let's dissect the two heaviest bands. First, areas along coastal Jersey and in and around the 5 boroughs in the 12-18" band are likely to pick up closer to the 18" mark. For example, Central Park will likely see at least 15, with the very real threat of getting the elusive 18 inch mark that would put the storm in the company of the great ones (see previous post). Meanwhile, areas like New City in Rockland will have amounts closer to the one foot range. Of course, any county could see isolated outrageous totals.

In the 18" plus band, the storm will hit hard. Excessive snowfall totals are more prone to be over 20" in these areas.

Finally, in the 24 inch band, there will be widespread delays and disruptions that will take the balance of the week to sort out. Connecticut could be at a standstill until late Wednesday or early Thursday at the earliest with the current projections.

Coastal flooding will affect areas along the south shore of the Island overnight tonight, but only in the most vulnerable spots.

Lastly, a big thanks to all those who liked, shared or just clicked to this blog for information. Over 100 people tuned in to the video. I am very grateful.

Be safe

 

MY SNOWFALL IDEA: BLIZZARD OF 2015

The amounts posted here are on the conservative side for the reasons listed below:

In reviewing the data, generally, i have a feeling that some of these forecasts are a bit too bullish on widespread amounts of over 20" for the nyc metro area. To me, it's Long Island that stands the best chance right now; NYC's 5 boroughs get in the range of 12-18" tops....I took a compromise of Lee Goldberg of ABC 7 and Joe Cioffi. 

If the 18" at Central Park materialized, the storm would make the top ten list: 

NOAA

To help us, we look at the Blizzard of February 1978 in the previous video, which was a similar evolution to this particular event. It may very well end up that this clue was the best guidepost!

Significant blowing and drifting of the snow will make it hard to measure. Additionally, drifts of 2-3 feet are likely in most places, regardless of the snow amounts, especially over Long Island. Winds from NYC and points south and east are likely to howl at the rate of 30-50mph on Tuesday morning. Wind speeds could exceed 60mph in eastern Suffolk and eastern CT. 

I think you are liable to see amounts of double digits common, with some places (probably central/Eastern LI and most of Connecticut) getting more widespread upper teens and higher for amounts there. Given the poor continuity of the models, the idea of insane amounts---widespread --- are just not believable to me at this stage...

yet...

All in all, it would still be a memorable storm ...but not biblical!

Another update is coming later today....Godda sleep :)

VIDEO: DANGEROUS BLIZZARD POISED TO STRIKE THE TRI STATE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY

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