In reviewing the data, generally, i have a feeling that some of these forecasts are a bit too bullish on widespread amounts of over 20" for the nyc metro area. To me, it's Long Island that stands the best chance right now; NYC's 5 boroughs get in the range of 12-18" tops....I took a compromise of Lee Goldberg of ABC 7 and Joe Cioffi.
If the 18" at Central Park materialized, the storm would make the top ten list:
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| NOAA |
To help us, we look at the Blizzard of February 1978 in the previous video, which was a similar evolution to this particular event. It may very well end up that this clue was the best guidepost!
Significant blowing and drifting of the snow will make it hard to measure. Additionally, drifts of 2-3 feet are likely in most places, regardless of the snow amounts, especially over Long Island. Winds from NYC and points south and east are likely to howl at the rate of 30-50mph on Tuesday morning. Wind speeds could exceed 60mph in eastern Suffolk and eastern CT.
I think you are liable to see amounts of double digits common, with some places (probably central/Eastern LI and most of Connecticut) getting more widespread upper teens and higher for amounts there. Given the poor continuity of the models, the idea of insane amounts---widespread --- are just not believable to me at this stage...
yet...
All in all, it would still be a memorable storm ...but not biblical!
Another update is coming later today....Godda sleep :)
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