BABY I AIN'T FOOLIN, WE COULD BE IN FOR SUMMER COOLIN'

Just pulled this out of American Weather Forum. The NOAA models are looking cool for the summer and fall, much like the Climate Forecast System model.

A word about Joe Bastardi and his most recent post. I can't give exact quotes because he's on a pay site, so i just have to summarize.  took two things. He is still sticking with the idea of a cool April, with a possible shot at snow for I-80 north in the 4/1-4/15 time period. In a worst case, he noted that any type of snow would damage the already sprouted foliage in the Northeast States. This is an idea he's carried forth for weeks now. Also, he he has been  banging the drum for a cool summer in the Great Lakes, which implies to me that we'll see an increase in rainfall the next two to three months. The combination of resistance from the cool pool over the Lakes and oncoming warmth from the souther plains screams to me that we'll start to level the playing field on the mini rainfall deficit that we've had since late fall.

In the meantime, a wicked shot of cool is coming for Monday and Tuesday, and the NAM model has low temps in the 20s for most of the region, including the coastal plain. That's not to say it'll happen, but it is to say that this model has been very consistent the last 24 hours on this idea.

Much like getting snow in October may have "jinxed" snow lovers, i'm beginning to wonder if too much heat too early will have a rubber band effect (coinciding with the oncoming El Nino) to make for less than ideal summer weather at times around these parts...

more later.

SPECIAL EDITION: Spring like temps return, with possible freezing temps Monday night and Tuesday night.

Full Screen Version:


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvcwLFdj0dc

BRIEF COLD SHOT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK

This will feel like a slap compared to what we've been experiencing lately.  Temps will actually fall into the 40s for lows Monday night, and highs will struggle to get out of the lower 50s for this coming Tuesday. THE RETURN OF NORMAL TEMPS for a day?? Hard to believe, but it's true:

But fear not, as very warm temps will move back in again on Wednesday...See the previous post.

The precip chances look about the same for Saturday into Sunday.

STILL VERY WARM, BUT WETTER THIS WEEKEND

1. Front crosses region Friday, which means temps start to level off Thursday evening into the weekend. No place to go but down considering the tremendous warmth the past few months.

NOAA weather map for Friday:

2. Highs still above normai in the 60s Friday, but near 60 over the weekend, with more cloud cover beginning friday night and then eventually some rain moving in late Saturday night.

Intellicast.com

3. Rain off and on from overnight saturday night into Sunday night. NYC and points to the south and east stand the best chance of rainfall greater than 1/2 inch.

Intellicast.com
4. Could see totals up to an inch of badly needed precip late Saturday into Sunday (especially south and east of I-95), as we're running well behind normal monthly rainfall for the month (the winter was also very dry).

5. Temps  will be in the low-mid 60s for Monday and Tuesday. Another surge of balmy summer-like temps looking likely Wednesday and Thursday, with highs near 70 inland/NYC, and solid 60s east of NYC.

THE BLIZZARD OF APRIL, 1982

Here is the weather map, courtesy of EWALL:

And check out the link from American Weather Forums for newspaper articles scanned in

HAPPY SPRING, EVERYBODY!!!!!

MORE RECORDS FELL TODAY...AND MORE RECORDS WILL BE BROKEN THIS WEEK

The warmth of this March is one for the ages. La Guardia's high temp record fell today

Courtesy of NOAA:

And ALL TIME MARCH RECORD HIGH TEMPS  ARE IN JEOPARDY THURSDAY at some locations. At the very least, we'll crack the top ten:

Here's Newark's All-Time March high temp records:

And here is their all time chart off of Wikipedia:

Central Park will make a run at theirs too for Thursday: Most reporting stations are running in double-digits for monthly mean temperatures, and we still have more than ten days to go.

Astounding stuff!

NEWARK'S 1938 RECORD IN JEOPARDY (FOR THIS COMING THURSDAY)

I just checked out the records for Newark for this coming thursday. and in light of the recent model runs, their record high of 80 back in 1938 is going to be broken.

Today's Euro model has temps hitting 85, which would smash the record to pieces.

New York's Central Park would not be far behind if this actually verified.

Meanwhile, the fog has rolled back into the coast:

This is the reason for the wacky cloud chart on the video today

VIDEO EDITION-RECORD WARMTH, FOG AND A POSSIBLE APRIL COOLDOWN...

VIDEO COMING THIS AFTERNOON...

Points To Ponder:

1. Another warm week in the making, with record-setting temps very likely (especially Wednesday according to NOAA morning disco and latest forecast models). This idea is virtually unchanged from last week.

2. Low clouds/fog to play havoc on temps for east of the city all week long

3. Sneaky showers Mon/Tues, then Saturday as temps TRY to cool down somewhat

4. CFS Graphic shows cool start to April. Long range models starting to show this as well. But how "cool" is cool? And will trend from winter hold or break (short, sharp shot of cool, followed by exceptional warmth)?