Just pulled this out of American Weather Forum. The NOAA models are looking cool for the summer and fall, much like the Climate Forecast System model.
A word about Joe Bastardi and his most recent post. I can't give exact quotes because he's on a pay site, so i just have to summarize. took two things. He is still sticking with the idea of a cool April, with a possible shot at snow for I-80 north in the 4/1-4/15 time period. In a worst case, he noted that any type of snow would damage the already sprouted foliage in the Northeast States. This is an idea he's carried forth for weeks now. Also, he he has been banging the drum for a cool summer in the Great Lakes, which implies to me that we'll see an increase in rainfall the next two to three months. The combination of resistance from the cool pool over the Lakes and oncoming warmth from the souther plains screams to me that we'll start to level the playing field on the mini rainfall deficit that we've had since late fall.
In the meantime, a wicked shot of cool is coming for Monday and Tuesday, and the NAM model has low temps in the 20s for most of the region, including the coastal plain. That's not to say it'll happen, but it is to say that this model has been very consistent the last 24 hours on this idea.
Much like getting snow in October may have "jinxed" snow lovers, i'm beginning to wonder if too much heat too early will have a rubber band effect (coinciding with the oncoming El Nino) to make for less than ideal summer weather at times around these parts...
more later.
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