A SATURDAY SIZZLE, BEFORE THE HEAT STARTS TO FIZZLE

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD--- HIGH

1. Friday is hot, then the humidity spikes in the afternoon and evening. Becoming windy later in the day with temps in the mid 90s/upper 80s coast. 70s at night

2.  Saturday will feature dangerous heat for much of the region. High temps will cross the century mark in the urban centers (normal hotspots like La Guardia and Newark will go after records). 90s out on the island, with little refuge from the blazing heat Saturday (sea-breeze will be mitigated by northerly wind flow).


INTELLICAST

3. Threat of widespread thunderstorms gradually starts north of NYC during the day, but waits til Saturday evening/overnight for much of the region;  culprit will be super hot air mass getting sliced into by front from the north. Wind damage/hail threat with any storms. Storms will be generally fast-moving Saturday evening, but could linger into a portion of early Sunday morning before clearing ensues Sunday afternoon.

4. Sunday afternoon-Wednesday are tranquil, with temps in the low/mid 80s. Lower humidity values will make it very pleasant all around. Warming up Thursday and turning humid. Risk of a shower Thursday morning, with more cloud cover.


ACCUWEATHER

INTELLICAST TEMPS

5. NOAA local office did a great job on getting the jump on the overhyped thunderstorm threat for the Fourth. As predicted (by them), very little activity of consequence materialized.

JULY 4Th WEATHER ROUNDUP

STAYING THE COURSE FOR THE FOURTH-CAST

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY-HIGH 

The overview yesterday which covered the potential of thunderstorms the next 24-36 hours is unchanged. Showers and thunderstorms are on track to move into the region tonight (between 9-11pm)...

...with less concentrated areal coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening. The risk is less tomorrow than it is tonight, and most places will be left unscathed by any thunderstorms during the heart of the holiday celebrations.

The story for the remainder of the week will become the re-appearance of the heat. It is still maintained here, in spite of other forecasts from local TV from yesterday, that Saturday will be the hottest day of the weekend, before another batch of cooler air takes hold for much of next week. A risk of a strong thunderstorm can’t be ruled out for Saturday, which after tomorrow, will the next real opportunity for rainfall.

More later.

100-DEGREE HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY...

The re-vamp of the NOAA site is excellent. I invite you to play around and click on everything, because there are some really cool products. I think that lack of an organized website kept people like me from finding such things (see below), but still, they should be commended!

This is a chart showing the probability of a 100-degree "heat index" values being met for Saturday; the computer is estimating that the likelihood is between 40-70 percent, a rather high number for this far out.

Now you may say, "it's a probability scheme, and you don't like probability schemes in weather." True, but, in light of so many deaths caused by heat stroke, this could be a very useful tool to millions!

anyway, the bottom line is that there is a very good shot that saturday has heat index values near 100 again. This is in response to a forecast i saw on the local channels (you should be able to guess which one i'm talking about if you check the links now and again), that has Sunday the hottest day. I decided to "side" with NOAA on this point for now, but there is clear debate on the matter, and worth staying tuned about.

The thunderstorm scenario is a mess, with many different versions of the forecast for the fourth still out there.

more later.

A WARM WEEK OVERALL, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FOURTH

 

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY---Low

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY-SUNDAY-Medium

 

1. Temps running a bit warmer than forecasted from a few days ago. Highs near 90 Tuesday and Wednesday, with 80s on the coast. Fair on Tuesday. Noticeable increase in humidity values for Wednesday

 

2. High potential for thunderstorms early Wednesday. Storms will be most numerous from 12am Wednesday to 12pm Wednesday, then scale back to just “risk” after noontime. Hot. Highs near 90 with muggy conditions, even at times of cloudiness. Viewing for fireworks should be good most places, but a risk of a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

 

3. Some other sources are more bullish on thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday night just before/during the majority of fireworks celebrations. Update will be done (special edition) to account for uncertainty of the forecast for Wednesday. Look for one tomorrow.

intellicast temps

 

4. Continued very warm Thursday-Saturday, as temps rise above 90 NYC/upper 80s points east. Saturday's the hottest day next seven days. Risk of a thunderstorm late Saturday. Sunday’s dry and a bit cooler.

MODELS FORESAW HISTORIC HEAT WAVE

A look at the actual high temps from yesterday compared with the GFS forecast of the core of the heat wave shows that the models were pretty good in showing where the extreme readings would lie.

however, as impressive as the models' performance was, the overall international and American suite were fairly disorganized  in predicting a late night barrage of thunderstorms on Saturday, which begat a path of destruction and death.

As for our weather, another warm week is in store, with the growing likelihood of showers and thunderstorms at some point on the Fourth. However, the long term picture is starting to show a sign that a cool second week of July may be in the offing.

more tomorrow.