STAYING THE COURSE FOR THE FOURTH-CAST

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY-HIGH 

The overview yesterday which covered the potential of thunderstorms the next 24-36 hours is unchanged. Showers and thunderstorms are on track to move into the region tonight (between 9-11pm)...

...with less concentrated areal coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening. The risk is less tomorrow than it is tonight, and most places will be left unscathed by any thunderstorms during the heart of the holiday celebrations.

The story for the remainder of the week will become the re-appearance of the heat. It is still maintained here, in spite of other forecasts from local TV from yesterday, that Saturday will be the hottest day of the weekend, before another batch of cooler air takes hold for much of next week. A risk of a strong thunderstorm can’t be ruled out for Saturday, which after tomorrow, will the next real opportunity for rainfall.

More later.

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle