A SATURDAY SIZZLE, BEFORE THE HEAT STARTS TO FIZZLE

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD--- HIGH

1. Friday is hot, then the humidity spikes in the afternoon and evening. Becoming windy later in the day with temps in the mid 90s/upper 80s coast. 70s at night

2.  Saturday will feature dangerous heat for much of the region. High temps will cross the century mark in the urban centers (normal hotspots like La Guardia and Newark will go after records). 90s out on the island, with little refuge from the blazing heat Saturday (sea-breeze will be mitigated by northerly wind flow).


INTELLICAST

3. Threat of widespread thunderstorms gradually starts north of NYC during the day, but waits til Saturday evening/overnight for much of the region;  culprit will be super hot air mass getting sliced into by front from the north. Wind damage/hail threat with any storms. Storms will be generally fast-moving Saturday evening, but could linger into a portion of early Sunday morning before clearing ensues Sunday afternoon.

4. Sunday afternoon-Wednesday are tranquil, with temps in the low/mid 80s. Lower humidity values will make it very pleasant all around. Warming up Thursday and turning humid. Risk of a shower Thursday morning, with more cloud cover.


ACCUWEATHER

INTELLICAST TEMPS

5. NOAA local office did a great job on getting the jump on the overhyped thunderstorm threat for the Fourth. As predicted (by them), very little activity of consequence materialized.

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle