VERY ACTIVE MID-WINTER WEATHER ON TAP THIS WEEK...

The idea in the pre-season outlook that winter would be a "roller coaster ride" will be on display this week, with winter and spring in a see-saw battle for the next 3-5 days.

This weeks dramatic warm-up will begin Monday (ironically) with a mix of light wintry precip and a potential problamatic ice event in the immediate northern suburbs of NYC.

A mix of snow, sleet and freezing will begin Monday morning, and transition to rain along the coast and NYC during the afternoon. However, areas just outside the city will be dealt a longer period of freezing rain and sleet, making travel quite hazardous north and west of the I-95 corridor during the late afternoon and early evening.

This precip is, in effect, a shot of very warm air overrunning the arctic dome that has dominated the weather picture since last Monday.

Great South Bay almost frozen

Accu-weather

Temps Tuesday will be in the 40s to near 50, with a huge spike Wednesday; we should see readings well into the 50s by then, and possibly one or two 60-degree reports, particularly in the normally warmer locales. 

Intellicast

Waiting in the wings however, is another shot of arctic air, set to arrive by thursday and Friday. Heavy rain should move in Wednesday night into early thursday, with the potential for very strong winds. A reinforcing shot of arctic air may be accompanied by light snow Friday, with perhaps even another  light snowfall over the weekend (saturday night).

NOTE: The snowfall from this past friday was generally around 1-3 inches. But looking back, the prospects for a much bigger storm that were touted here earlier in the week obviously did not come true.

FRIDAY LOOKS WHITE, BUT AMOUNTS LOOK LIGHT

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD-HIGH

1. Wicked cold snap continues into Sunday, when the area will finally make it to the freezing mark during the day. until then, stay prepared for harsh cold/windchill values. 

2. Storm system for late week now looks weaker (until it’s well east of the area). Steadier snows will stay over southern Jersey/Mid-Atlantic areas, with NYC metro/LI Southern CT getting a glancing blow. Cold with temps near 20 Friday. Cold, dry weekend (near 30 day, 20s/upper teens at night).

3. New week will feature much warmer temps Monday through Wednesday, as arctic dome gets beaten down. Temps respond, with readings well into the 40s for highs Tuesday and Wednesday. A period of showers could accompany the warm up, especially tuesday night into Wednesday. 

4. Reload of cold weather is likely late next week. Prospects for a cold first half of February are high, with the coldest weather of the month relegated to the first 15 days or so. As mentioned before, sudden collapse of winter and “snap” into spring is something to watch for late Feb/early March.

CPC.NOAA.GOV

WATCHING FOR A FRIDAY SNOWSTORM ...

The previous overview from this past wednesday is on track...

The old adage that our more significant bouts of snowfall usually come in the middle of a period of below normal temps will be tested this week. A low pressure system will slide from the Ohio Valley towards the coast by friday, offering us a good shot at a significant snowfall for much of the tri state area. Sections closest to the coast, including NYC, have the best shot at seeing the heaviest snows, but the ultimate track of the storm will determine amounts. Places that get the most snow (to be determined) stand to get between 4-7 inches, with isolated totals over the 7 inch mark.

ACCU-weather

The timing of the event is a bit uncertain, but it should last between 8-12 hours in any one location, most likely during the afternoon and evening hours.

more to come Wednesday