FOCUS OF HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTS WEST OF THE COAST BEGINNING TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

please see the video from yesterday. the idea remains the same that the heaviest rains on the whole this week (starting tomorrow) will be confined to areas west of NYC. That's not to say that we'll be rain-free, but it's the best you can do in a pattern as tricky as this.

in light of the discussion out of NOAA this afternoon, i am beginning to doubt this scenario will pan exactly as portrayed even to the city and coast; i'm also wondering when (not if) the mid-summer heat truly builds in here after Sunday for a day or longer, like i think it might.

as it is, many places picked up over an inch of rain with this morning's torrential showers and storms.

accuweather's graphic is a good representation of the rest of the week and the story explains a lot as well...

notice the green area depicts the best chances of rainfall through friday, and does not include the coastal sections.  However i am skeptical because the models did a poor job of handling this mornings rains, and with the pattern not breaking down in a meaningful way, it seems to me that anyone's fair game for a surprise shower or storm most afternoons this week. Hedging my bet, i would guess that the primary area for this to take place would be north and west of town, so i went with that on the video.

By Saturday, we have to watch for an organized area of showers and storms for all locations in the afternoon.

it looks to remain humid through the week, as no real air mass change is apparent.

in situations like this, the point-and-click type forecasts are dubious and don't tell you much.  Text forecasts with probability of precipitation are useless. Straight up text forecasts in this situation should just read "risk of a shower" for low probability, or "showers likely" if the need is there.