ANOTHER DECIDEDLY WARM WINTER MONTH LOOKS LIKELY FOR JANUARY

predictability of forecast period: medium

 

1. Temps were adjusted upwards for late week period, as models generally backed off on their earlier depictions of 20s and lower 30s high temps. Expect temps in the 32-37 degree range for Thursday through Sunday. Windy on Friday. 

12/29 intellicast

New Intellicast

 

2. Appreciable snow/wintry precipitation had its chance (late December and this week) to make an impact. But with available cold getting swept away through at least mid-month (and a bit beyond), no significant winter storms are likely any time soon.

Accuweather Slide:

 

3.Temps next week are normal to mild, with a major spike possible wed-fri of next week ahead of an approaching storm; highs could surpass the 50 degree threshold late next week. 

 

4. Beyond what we have currently, prospects for sustained, renewed cold are weeks away. Pattern is one where Pacific air will dominate the lower 48 states and Southern Canada.

NOAA Monthly Temp Outlook

5. 2012 officially the warmest year on record at Central Park. Temps were buoyed by a very warm winter/spring, with astronomical warmth in March!

COLD WEATHER WILL RING IN 2013...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: HIGH through FRIDAY, MEDIUM Saturday/Sunday

1. Monday and Tuesday are the warmest days of the week, with temps in the upper 30s. Lows in the 20s. A few flurries possible Tuesday morning. Mainly cloudy, especially towards evening Monday. Winds relax somewhat, but it will still remain a bit breezy this period.

ACCUWEATHER "BALL DROP" WEATHER

2. Tuesday night-Saturday: Significant cold shot (coldest air of the winter thus far) will assert itself. Much, if not all of the period should feature temps never making it to 32 degrees.

NOAA

NOAA

3. Wednesday night and thursday night: temps should plummet to single digits in the outlying areas for overnight lows, especially where snow covers the ground. Daytime HIGH temps Thursday and Friday will hover around 29-30 degrees, with wind-chill values in the teens.

4. Mainly precip free period, but have to watch for a storm threat over this coming weekend.

5. Mid-month warm up looking likely, as wintry pattern relaxes. However, a  rejuvenation of winter should start anew by 1/20.

6. Below are the Saturday 12/29 snowfall amounts: Compared to the forecasts, most places were close or even went over, but north of NYC. Coastal sections underperformed, while eastern CT got slammed!