DECEMBER OPENS UP AS WARM AS ADVERTISED

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

 

1. Spotty light rain Friday night towards the coast/NYC, with some light freezing rain/snow in Orange/Rockland/Putnam counties and adjacent counties in NJ/CT. Watch for icy roads late Friday night in these areas. Temps in the 30s everywhere Friday night.

 

2. Periods of light rain/drizzle will persist into Saturday and Saturday night before a break ensues Sunday during the day. Warm air makes inroads in the northern counties early Saturday, so that frozen/ice threat is shut off early. Temps rise throughout the weekend (persistent cloud cover notwithstanding). Readings will climb even at night; temps will gradually move into the 50s Sunday.

NOAA RAIN CHANCES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY:

 

3. A period of some heavier showers Sunday night. Break for Monday and much of Tuesday, with very mild temps close to 60! Plenty of clouds though; some partial breaks of sun

INTELLICAST TEMPS:

ACCUWEATHER OVERALL PATTERN SHOWS WARMTH DOMINATING THE LOWER 48 STATES

 

4. Sharp turn to colder temps (average temps) Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, as front comes through with showers. Blustery Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with highs in the 40s.

 

5. Signs in the long term still lean towards a turn to a more persistent cold, stormy pattern by mid-month. Previous posts, video and links handle this.

 

MORE ON MID WEEK STORM AND A VIDEO ON DECEMBER PROSPECTS

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

MID WEEK STORM: The old map is similar for NYC and points eastward, but the snow amounts were adjusted to lesser values north and west of NYC. The timing looks like Tuesday morning, with another shot of light to moderate precip Tuesday afternoon and night. Overall, less than a half of an inch of liquid will accompany this storm, thus making the impact low to commuting and everyday plans.

Old MAP

UPDATED NEW MAP

NOAA and Accuweather have basically the same idea accumulation-wise.

Accuweather - LEFT......NOAA-RIGHT

The next chance of precip (rain) will be sometime Saturday night into Sunday.

LATE THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEK: The theme of a back-and-forth, roller coaster winter will be showing itself in full force the next two weeks. After a very chilly start to the work week and the mid week storm, a big warming trend will commence as we open December. A stretch of very mild weather  
should encompass much of the lower-48 states through at least 12/5.

NOAA's Long Range temp outlook is quite bullish on the warm idea for Saturday through Wednesday of next week:

INTELLICAST TEMPS FOR NYC NEXT SEVEN DAYS show the trend nicely:

Thereafter, the overall pattern will reconfigure itself yet again; this transition should allow for a substantial period of wintry weather, which could last 10-15 days, leading us right into the heart of the holiday season.


VIDEO: December Looking Cold, Stormy:

The video shows what it takes in the overall pattern to make it cold and snowy in the northeast states. A comparison of last December versus the (likely) pattern going into this December (especially after the 5th):