MORE ON MID WEEK STORM AND A VIDEO ON DECEMBER PROSPECTS

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

MID WEEK STORM: The old map is similar for NYC and points eastward, but the snow amounts were adjusted to lesser values north and west of NYC. The timing looks like Tuesday morning, with another shot of light to moderate precip Tuesday afternoon and night. Overall, less than a half of an inch of liquid will accompany this storm, thus making the impact low to commuting and everyday plans.

Old MAP

UPDATED NEW MAP

NOAA and Accuweather have basically the same idea accumulation-wise.

Accuweather - LEFT......NOAA-RIGHT

The next chance of precip (rain) will be sometime Saturday night into Sunday.

LATE THIS WEEK/NEXT WEEK: The theme of a back-and-forth, roller coaster winter will be showing itself in full force the next two weeks. After a very chilly start to the work week and the mid week storm, a big warming trend will commence as we open December. A stretch of very mild weather  
should encompass much of the lower-48 states through at least 12/5.

NOAA's Long Range temp outlook is quite bullish on the warm idea for Saturday through Wednesday of next week:

INTELLICAST TEMPS FOR NYC NEXT SEVEN DAYS show the trend nicely:

Thereafter, the overall pattern will reconfigure itself yet again; this transition should allow for a substantial period of wintry weather, which could last 10-15 days, leading us right into the heart of the holiday season.


VIDEO: December Looking Cold, Stormy:

The video shows what it takes in the overall pattern to make it cold and snowy in the northeast states. A comparison of last December versus the (likely) pattern going into this December (especially after the 5th):

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement.
MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences
LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle