DODGING SOME MID-WEEK STORMS THIS WEEK

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS MEDIUM THROUGH MONDAY

1. Dismal performance by the last overview, as timing of rain fell apart with the first wave coming last Friday around midday, then virtually no precip after! Only consolation was that rainfall amounts verified with torrential downpours this past Friday. Confirmed tornado touched down in Suffolk County Friday afternoon.

2. Humidity increases tomorrow, with showers and storms for areas west of NYC during the afternoon. First batch of storms will dissipate before reaching NYC in the early evening. NYC points east may not see a drop of rain until well into the evening/overnight.

NOAA has west of NYC in a greater risk for severe storms tomorrow as does Accuweather

3. Activity will become numerous for a period between 10pm Tuesday and 10am Wednesday for most spots. Heavy rain/storms, then becoming more scattered/isolated after noontime under a canopy of cloudiness. Continued muggy.

4. Thursday, another break from storms and high humidity, but then things will fire up Friday late afternoon west of NYC. Once again, storms will wait to penetrate the NYC region/points east until after dark. Showers will be numerous into Saturday morning. Weekend will be dominated by clouds, but rain chances will be widely scattered from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday. Slow clearing Sunday.

5. TEMPS: NYC running several degrees above normal for the month so far. Projection is for near-to-slightly above normal temps through Friday, then a cool-down in temps for a few days through early next week. Another spike could come after the 24^th.

Intellicast

6.  Aside from June, every month this year has registered “above-average” in terms of the “mean” monthly temp, and August will surely follow the overwhelming trend for 2012.