Sunday, October 21, 2012

WARMTH TO DOMINATE THE LAST FULL WEEK OF OCTOBER

COLD HALLOWEEN WEEK LIKELY, WITH POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY-HIGH
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY-TUESDAY-LOW

1. After starting off cool, October will likely end up being a warmer-than-average month overall, with drier-than-average conditions.


2. TEMPS: mild is the rule through Saturday, with highs near 70 most days.  Cooler Wed/Thursday, with clouds prevailing and onshore winds leveling temps to near normal (low 60s). Late-week temp spike offers the very real possibility of temps soaring into the mid to upper 70s Friday for NYC and points north and west. 50s at night.

3. PRECIP: Best chance area-wide is Tuesday night, with showers a good bet. Otherwise, it's mainly dry, with only a risk of a shower wed/thursday. Wild-card will be late week interaction with system in Caribbean and oncoming cold front for Sunday into Monday.

4. Details are unknown, but said interaction with a developing tropical system, the clash of true winter temps versus the exiting summer-like air-mass and a full moon may be the ingredients needed to produce a very powerful east coast storm in the Sunday-Tuesday period. Bears very close watch.



5. Cold Halloween week likely, with temps in the low 50s to end October and open November. Cold air will persist through the first weekend of November.

PROJECTED PATTERN NEXT WEEK SHOWS COLD AIR LOCKED IN



6. Daylight savings will end the weekend of November 2-4. 

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