Friday, September 14, 2012

LOCKING IN A FALL REGIME WITH A STORMY TUESDAY



PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD-HIGH 

1. Spotty light rainfall arrives overnight tonight (Saturday morning), but will clear by 8-10am most spots. Trace amounts expected. Fall-like weekend this weekend, with breezy conditions Saturday. Few changes from previous overview on the weekend weather picture.
 
2. Gradually warming Sunday-Monday, with fair skies Sunday. Clouds will build in Monday, and air mass will become muggy in advance of Tuesday’s very potent storm.

3. Tuesday: Heavy rain at times, with thunderstorms possible throughout the day and early evening. Flooding likely in the most susceptible urban/main highways. Rainfall amounts could exceed two inches in many locations. Temps in the 70s. Humid and very windy on Tuesday. Some coastal flooding likely. Clearing late.

ACCU-weather slide


 
NOAA Hazardous weather outlook days 3-7


4. Wednesday-Thursday are fair, with cooler temps. Windy early Wednesday, before things settle for Wednesday night into Thursday.
 
5. Cool will be the rule in the long term, as a cold pocket aloft lingers over the nations mid-section, blocking any advance of warmer air from the south. This will increase the prospects of fall-like weather dominating, with few if any opportunities for long stretches of mild temps to take hold. Readings in the 90s are done for the year, and days with highs in the 80s will be few and far between going forward.

intellicast temps



GFS 7-DAY MEAN TEMP SHOWS A PRONOUNCED POOL OF COOL OVER MUCH OF THE U.S.


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