A WEDNESDAY WALLOP WILL BREAK UP THE HEAT

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD - Medium

1.Strong storms will threaten by mid afternoon (western parts first, then further east), and continue through early evening before winding down to just a risk of a shower by mid evening/late at night. Hot, with temps in the low 90s; muggy once again before the storms scour out the humidity.

INTELLICAST map shows that the heaviest showers/storms will wind down around sunset. 

 

2. Numerous showers will continue Thursday and again Friday, both during the day. A lesser risk of a shower exists for areas east and south of NYC. Cooler, with highs in the 80s. Friday is predominantly cloudy. Humidity values low through the weekend.

 

3. Gorgeous weekend on tap, as comfortable summertime temps and low humidity values rule both Saturday and Sunday. Showers could creep in late Sunday/early Monday. Humidity and temps rise once again early next week, with another shot at 90 degrees or better by mid week.

4. Overall long-range pattern suggests a second consecutive east coast August tropical threat. 

 

BLISTERING HEAT, NO. STEAMBATH HEAT, YES

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY: Medium

1. Main theme the next week will be a discernible increase in humidity values the next seven days. Although not oppressively hot, the combination of very warm temps with abundant humidity will lead to an uncomfortable stretch of summertime conditions beginning Friday.

NWS TEMP/DEW POINT combo Sunday through Wednesday:

SUN/MON

TUES/WED

DEW POINT CHART shows our area in the "oppressive" category...

2. Rainfall- Best chance still appears to be Saturday night through Sunday night, with just a risk of a heavy shower/storm Saturday evening. More numerous showers/thunderstorms abound area-wide Sunday; Flash flood threat is high with any storm.

3. Temps- Near 90 each day, with low 90s common Monday-Wednesday. Only a risk of a thunderstorm exists Monday-Thursday (NOAA Idea). Hottest day is Tuesday, with highs near 95 and heat index values possibly over 100 degrees for NYC (Intellicast/Accuweather).

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle

VIDEO: AN ALL STAR SUMMER PATTERN

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD---- Medium

A SATURDAY SIZZLE, BEFORE THE HEAT STARTS TO FIZZLE

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD--- HIGH

1. Friday is hot, then the humidity spikes in the afternoon and evening. Becoming windy later in the day with temps in the mid 90s/upper 80s coast. 70s at night

2.  Saturday will feature dangerous heat for much of the region. High temps will cross the century mark in the urban centers (normal hotspots like La Guardia and Newark will go after records). 90s out on the island, with little refuge from the blazing heat Saturday (sea-breeze will be mitigated by northerly wind flow).


INTELLICAST

3. Threat of widespread thunderstorms gradually starts north of NYC during the day, but waits til Saturday evening/overnight for much of the region;  culprit will be super hot air mass getting sliced into by front from the north. Wind damage/hail threat with any storms. Storms will be generally fast-moving Saturday evening, but could linger into a portion of early Sunday morning before clearing ensues Sunday afternoon.

4. Sunday afternoon-Wednesday are tranquil, with temps in the low/mid 80s. Lower humidity values will make it very pleasant all around. Warming up Thursday and turning humid. Risk of a shower Thursday morning, with more cloud cover.


ACCUWEATHER

INTELLICAST TEMPS

5. NOAA local office did a great job on getting the jump on the overhyped thunderstorm threat for the Fourth. As predicted (by them), very little activity of consequence materialized.

JULY 4Th WEATHER ROUNDUP

STAYING THE COURSE FOR THE FOURTH-CAST

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY-HIGH 

The overview yesterday which covered the potential of thunderstorms the next 24-36 hours is unchanged. Showers and thunderstorms are on track to move into the region tonight (between 9-11pm)...

...with less concentrated areal coverage tomorrow afternoon and evening. The risk is less tomorrow than it is tonight, and most places will be left unscathed by any thunderstorms during the heart of the holiday celebrations.

The story for the remainder of the week will become the re-appearance of the heat. It is still maintained here, in spite of other forecasts from local TV from yesterday, that Saturday will be the hottest day of the weekend, before another batch of cooler air takes hold for much of next week. A risk of a strong thunderstorm can’t be ruled out for Saturday, which after tomorrow, will the next real opportunity for rainfall.

More later.

100-DEGREE HEAT INDICES POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY...

The re-vamp of the NOAA site is excellent. I invite you to play around and click on everything, because there are some really cool products. I think that lack of an organized website kept people like me from finding such things (see below), but still, they should be commended!

This is a chart showing the probability of a 100-degree "heat index" values being met for Saturday; the computer is estimating that the likelihood is between 40-70 percent, a rather high number for this far out.

Now you may say, "it's a probability scheme, and you don't like probability schemes in weather." True, but, in light of so many deaths caused by heat stroke, this could be a very useful tool to millions!

anyway, the bottom line is that there is a very good shot that saturday has heat index values near 100 again. This is in response to a forecast i saw on the local channels (you should be able to guess which one i'm talking about if you check the links now and again), that has Sunday the hottest day. I decided to "side" with NOAA on this point for now, but there is clear debate on the matter, and worth staying tuned about.

The thunderstorm scenario is a mess, with many different versions of the forecast for the fourth still out there.

more later.