Predictability of forecast period: HIGH through Wednesday
"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:
Thursday, June 14, 2012
VIDEO: FABULOUS FATHERS' DAY WEEKEND AND BEYOND
Predictability of forecast period: HIGH through Wednesday
Wednesday, June 13, 2012
RAIN HELD ON FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN SOME SPOTS
While parts of the city and west remained cloudy, eastern areas held onto the rain for most of the day. JFK airport had rain reported for several hours in a row, long after the expected stop time of around dusk.
The storm system responsible for this is stuck nearby, and meandered in a southward direction this afternoon. This allowed rainbands to build back into eastern sections.
All in all, not a bad outlook for the rain, but some areas did see rain for longer than advertised here
The storm system responsible for this is stuck nearby, and meandered in a southward direction this afternoon. This allowed rainbands to build back into eastern sections.
All in all, not a bad outlook for the rain, but some areas did see rain for longer than advertised here
Monday, June 11, 2012
EARLY SUMMER SOAKER WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: medium
1. Pattern is quiet until late afternoon/evening Tuesday (tomorrow), before heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and persist into early Wednesday. Rainfall should last 6-9 hours in any one location, and fall mostly in a 5pm-5am window. Some lingering numerous showers could persist through the morning commute, before rain quits for good Wednesday afternoon. Highs kept in check by clouds and rain through the period.
NOAA Rainfall amounts (Generally around an inch, with some isolated totals to two inches).
2. For the remainder of the week, broken cloudiness will persist, along with winds off the relatively cool ocean. While temps will remain somewhat cool, the recent threat of daily doses of rain will be few if any through the weekend.
Intellicast Temps not all that toasty for June:
Intellicast cloud coverage:
3. Huge disparity between last year's hot start for nation as a whole, and this year. Threat of no recorded 90-degree days in NYC looking like a real possibility now as we head towards mid and late month.
JUNE 2011 JUNE 2012
1. Pattern is quiet until late afternoon/evening Tuesday (tomorrow), before heavy rain and thunderstorms develop and persist into early Wednesday. Rainfall should last 6-9 hours in any one location, and fall mostly in a 5pm-5am window. Some lingering numerous showers could persist through the morning commute, before rain quits for good Wednesday afternoon. Highs kept in check by clouds and rain through the period.
NOAA Rainfall amounts (Generally around an inch, with some isolated totals to two inches).
Intellicast Temps not all that toasty for June:
Intellicast cloud coverage:
3. Huge disparity between last year's hot start for nation as a whole, and this year. Threat of no recorded 90-degree days in NYC looking like a real possibility now as we head towards mid and late month.
JUNE 2011 JUNE 2012
"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:
Saturday, June 9, 2012
Friday, June 8, 2012
THUNDERSTORM THREAT FOR SATURDAY STILL REAL
A quickie here as i wanted to update on thunderstorm chances for tomorrow. Check out the video if you haven't already.
But first, here is a cool graphic on NYC 100-degree days by decade, courtesy of Weatherbell:
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Now, about the storm prospects tomorrow, NOAA's outstanding Storm Predictions Center has the outlined threat:
In their discussion, they note that while widespread storms are very possible, the "severe" threat should be mitigated to a very small area. The "simulated radar" off of the NAM/WRF model denotes this nicely for tomorrow afternoon, with only a small cluster of intense storms embedded into a general area of rain showers...
However, it should be noted that this can change, and even with a small spacial area from which to work with, the prospect of an isolated tornado in this type of set-up is not uncommon.
I like the timing laid out in the video from yesterday.
But first, here is a cool graphic on NYC 100-degree days by decade, courtesy of Weatherbell:
.jpg)
In their discussion, they note that while widespread storms are very possible, the "severe" threat should be mitigated to a very small area. The "simulated radar" off of the NAM/WRF model denotes this nicely for tomorrow afternoon, with only a small cluster of intense storms embedded into a general area of rain showers...
However, it should be noted that this can change, and even with a small spacial area from which to work with, the prospect of an isolated tornado in this type of set-up is not uncommon.
I like the timing laid out in the video from yesterday.
Thursday, June 7, 2012
VIDEO: SATURDAY STORMS, BUT OVERALL WARM, DRY WEEKEND
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PREIOD through Saturday evening---Medium
Sunday through Wednesday---Remaining High
"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:
Monday, June 4, 2012
AFTER THIS WEEK'S DEBACLE, A WARM-UP IS INEVITABLE ...
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: Medium early, high after Thursday.
1. Temp ideas from NOAA's point and click from last Thursday (for today) were thrashed, as highs struggled into the 60s today. Video from Thursday caught this.
2.Expect temps in the low 60s again tomorrow (Tuesday), with numerous showers in the afternoon .
3. Numerous showers west of NYC, more of a low risk Wednesday/Thursday as temps creep up to near 70. 50s at night.
4. Warm weekend ahead, with little in the way of mechanism to spark precip through early next week. Temps rise to near 80.
5. Surge of warmth to continue into much of next week, before another cool surge late next week, which may have similar results of the past few days. Bears watching.
From the NOAA Mount Holly Facebook page:
1. Temp ideas from NOAA's point and click from last Thursday (for today) were thrashed, as highs struggled into the 60s today. Video from Thursday caught this.
2.Expect temps in the low 60s again tomorrow (Tuesday), with numerous showers in the afternoon .
3. Numerous showers west of NYC, more of a low risk Wednesday/Thursday as temps creep up to near 70. 50s at night.
4. Warm weekend ahead, with little in the way of mechanism to spark precip through early next week. Temps rise to near 80.
5. Surge of warmth to continue into much of next week, before another cool surge late next week, which may have similar results of the past few days. Bears watching.
From the NOAA Mount Holly Facebook page:
PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS
HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement
MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences
LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office
Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expectedRainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch.Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends.Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added inDrizzle-constant drizzleOccasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle
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