FUN WITH ERNESTO...

The track of Tropical Storm Ernesto is going to be very critical for the future evolution of the storm and its impact on the US coast.

That is an obvious statement.

But what is less obvious is the intensity forecast . Joe Bastardi of Weatherbell has a strikingly different forecast altogether intensity-wise than that of the National Hurricane Center, which just issued its forecast around 11 PM EDT.

SInce 5pm, the NHC track has shifted with the corrected fix on the actual center of the storm. This is typical in early storm development; the initialization of the storm's position is very elusive in the developing stages, and often times, Recon flights are necessary to hone in on the exact position.

I put together a slide showing the national hurricane Center forecast versus theWeatherbell forecast. I used the AccuWeather graphics for the second graphic but keep in mind,  JB does not work for AccuWeather any longer.

The difference is a stark. The national hurricane Center has a formidable hurricane rolling through the Caribbean in 60 to 72 hours. On the other hand JB has the storm being ripped apart by what he sees as  stronger than usual winds near the Central American coast for the very same time period.