UNSETTLED, MUGGY WEATHER TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING WEEK...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY--LOW

Although Sunday (today) and Monday still look mostly dry around here, the overall pattern will promote the opportunity for numerous showers and heavy thunderstorms for the balance of the week beginning Tuesday. The main culprit will be rich tropical air that will have a free pass into the region from the southern states for much of the week; this muggy air mass will work in tandem with slow moving, small disturbances in the atmosphere to promote the daily occurrence of soaking thunderstorms capable of producing localized flash flooding for some spots.

The best shot at these storms will be on Tuesday and Tuesday night...but as noted already, peak heating during the days from Tuesday onward through Friday could deliver the necessary spark to ignite heavy showers.

Accu-weather Overall Pattern Slide...

To make it more complicated, not everyone will see rain this week. It will be very difficult to pinpoint the exact location of the heavy rainfall until an hour or two before it arrives in most cases. Additionally, a by-product of this unsettled pattern will be to keep the daily high temps in check to normal levels; there are currently no signs of a formidable stretch of 90-degree heat.

Intellicast temps are not that different than what was shown here this past Wednesday for this upcoming week.

So far, the NYC metro area has seen four "heat waves" of three straight days of 90+ actual temps, and none are in sight as we approach August. In fact, odds are that as the El Nino pattern takes a firmer foothold in the northern hemisphere, we will see an marked increase in rainfall, as well as a possible influence from the tropics as the 10th of the month draws near.

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle