SPRING ARRIVES IN NAME ONLY THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS

1. Talk of pre-St. Patrick's day precip is overdone, as only VERY light rain/snow could fall on the big parade during the day; higher chances are over southern NYC and the coast, but amounts will be pesky. Highs near 40. Light winds during the day, but becoming a bit breezy at night tomorrow night, with temps droping into the low 30s.

NOAA products show about a tenth of an inch of liquid falling tomorrow. 

2. Sunday into Monday morning are dry, than a soaking rainfall will encompass the region. Temps quite raw and chilly for this time of year Monday night into Tuesday, which is when the bulk of the rain will fall. Continued highs near 40 at best through the period.

WPC.gov shows potential for 1-2 inches of rain Monday night/Tuesda

3. Higher elevations north and west of NYC stand the best shot at mixed precip through the entire storm for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Accu-weather

4. Potential is high for a period of very strong winds to develop Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning; highest gusts could reach 50mph near the coast and in higher elevations.

5. Dry Wednesday-Friday, but temps will struggle to reach the mid-40s through the end of next week. Pattern remains bottled up and blocky, which will mean the persistent pattern of cold and storminess will continue until it breaks down.

A COLD ST PATRICKS DAY; WINTERS' GRIP WILL BE SLOW TO FADE AWAY

First though, while the rain will build in Monday night, the steadiest and heaviest rains will come during Tuesday, as the timing of the system heading towards us is a bit slower than originally thought.

A risk of an afternoon shower will still be possible on Wednesday, as very cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere combines with daytime heating; this set-up is common in late winter and early spring and typically poses the greatest risk of a shower away from the coastal sections and with higher elevations.

Thereafter, cold, dry weather takes charge once again, as the false spring of the last few days is wiped out.

Intellicast

The next chance for a significant storm system comes early the week of the 17th (the time to watch would be Monday through Wednesday). If it pans out to its fullest potential, parts or all of the region could see a significant winter storm right around the time of the Vernal Equinox.

Euro model shows a strong signal for an east coast storm around 3/20

In short, winter is not done for at least another week to ten days, and one more storm could make it so that March has a decent chance to be our snowiest month for the entire winter of 2012-13.

WARMER AIR ON THE MENU THROUGH MID WEEK NEXT WEEK

1. storm this past week under-performed precip-wise, but lashed the coast with high waves and strong winds. Overview was best north and west of town where the most snow fell (Thursday night, with virtually none Wednesday night).

2. Mild temps take over, with Saturday/Sunday blanketed by bright blue skies. Temps near 50 for the first time in weeks. 30s to near 40 at night.

Accu-weather

3. Monday turns cloudy, but it's even milder than Sunday, with temps surging in to the mid/upper 50s. Showers arrive at night Monday night into Tuesday morning, before clearing takes hold Tuesday through the remainder of the week.

4. Long range guidance indicates a period of cold weather arriving around the 17th. Chance for another coastal storm during this time frame, as the overall pattern is once again conducive for a time.

STORM UPDATE: WHAT TO WATCH FOR THROUGH FRIDAY

The overview from the past two days is basically on track. The snow amounts look good from yesterday, with the best chance of over six inches of snow for the eastern tip of Long Island and eastern Connecticut. However, keep in mind that the accumulation will take place after dark tonight and through the overnight hours.  If the precip changes over to snow sooner in your location, the chances for seeing higher snowfall totals are much greater.

The guidance is really picking up on the idea of the second shot of snowfall tomorrow night into very early Friday morning; so, the odds are looking good that after a lull tomorrow afternoon, a period of steady snow should develop tomorrow night, with the potential of 1-3 more inches on top of whatever you receive tonight into tomorrow!

There is the possibility of travel delays Thursday morning. Winds will remain fairly high through Friday, as the storm is slow to exit the region.

The weekend looks dry, with temps in the 40s.

FORECAST DE JOUR...

this is absurd for this late in the game to have this much disagreement. See the video for the explanation for all of the weather madness on the eve of what should be a fascinating storm the next few days.

VIDEO: STORM UPDATE

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL AND STRONG WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

MAJOR COASTAL STORM WILL LINGER INTO MUCH OF FRIDAY 

The models, which have had an awful time with the northward extend of this storm are now coming into better agreement. The trend over the past 24-36 hours is decidedly in favor of a further northward moving storm, putting the Tri-State area directly in the crosshairs of the storm on Wednesday evening into the overnight hours.

Rain will change to a heavy wet snowfall for the entire area, with intense snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The precipitation will change back to light rain in the afternoon on Thursday before tapering off at night thursday night. However, as the intense low pressure sits and spins over the North Atlantic on Friday, an additional round of snowfall -- probably light -- will be possible during the day.

Very windy conditions are likely for Wednesday evening; in fact, winds will only slowly subside on Thursday and Friday, as the pattern remains bottled up. At their peak, wind speeds could surpass 50mph Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

The prolong beating on our coastline cannot be overlooked; the coastal flood and beach erosion from the storm will only slowly abate. One positive note is that astronomical tides are not at their highest possible levels.

Accu-weather

Another update late tonight or tomorrow...