WINTER IS BACK, AND IT’S ON THE ATTACK!

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

HIGHLIGHTS:

1. Moderate snowstorm likely for southern coastal New Jersey Thursday into Thursday night. NYC metro misses the brunt of the storm, but light rain/snow mix is possible thursday night, especially near the southern shores. 

NOAA

2. Cold and dry Friday, with temps near the freezing mark for high temps. Windy friday. Warming up for the weekend, with temps in the 40s Saturday/Sunday.  

3. Turning sharply colder Sunday afternoon through Monday, with the coldest days Tuesday/Wednesday. Temps start out near freezing Monday, but then plunge at night. Teens at night Monday-Wednesday. Sub-freezing high temps likely during Tuesday and Wednesday. Low wind chill values Tuesday/Wednesday (wind chills perhaps near 0 on Tuesday night). 

intellicast

NOAA WInd Chill Forecast Mon/Tues

4. Storm chances beyond tomorrow: Tuesday (have to watch for light/moderate snowfall), then late next week/weekend.

5. Major flu outbreak underway nation-wide. Winter weather makes the flu virus worse. 

Synopsis Of Forecast Period: After a mostly mild January, there is good model agreement on a 3-4 week period (essentially starting now) of wintry weather in all forms. A very brief let up may occur around 1/26-1/30, before another intense cold spell settles in for much of February.  An abrupt ending to winter may occur around the end of February, but the signals are strong that the second half of winter will be much more pronounced than the first half was.

Cold: Temps will average below normal levels starting now through the next ten days. A wave of true arctic air will limit daytime highs in to only the 20s next week (it's likely that Tuesday and Wednesday are the coldest days) with single-digit lows possible Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning.  Wind chill values will be even lower.

Storms: Chances for as stormy of a pattern as we had in the last ten days of December (almost three inches of precip, but too warm for substantial snow) are unlikely. However, expect the possibility of at least one or two moderate snowfalls in the next 10-15 days. It is worth noting that our biggest snowfalls usually come in the middle of a stretch of well-below normal temps.

Next update will likely come around midnight, Tuesday morning due to travel. 

FORECASTED TEMPS VS CURRENT TEMPS. AND SNOW COVER TOO...

I'm not picking on Weather.com. Just thought it would be interesting to show what this "warm-up" is doing. The temps for the month are off to the races, but this is mainly due to the vast amount of very warm overnight lows we've had. So even thought the temps have been seasonably warm during the day for the first ten days of January, they've been downright balmy at night. Suppose the overnight low in NYC is 46 (like last night). That raises the actual "mean" temp for the month by a huge margin. WIth the normal "low" temp being closer to 25/26, this means that nyc had a plus 20 for an overnight low, thus skewing the average for the month so far.

Anyway, enough rambling! Here's the charts from weather.com

Notice it's A LOT colder in the west with the actual temps near 0 in a lot of spots. WOW

And for good measure (no pun intended), here's the current snow cover vs the snow cover earlier this month.

Snow cover 1/13/13.

VIDEO: LOOKING AT THE TRANSITION WEEK AHEAD

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

JANUARY WARM SPELL REACHES HIGH TIDE THIS WEEKEND

Temps: Temps are at their peak Saturday-Sunday, with near 60 degrees possible in the urban hot-spots. Widespread 50s elsewhere during the day are likely; this is some 15-20 degrees higher than normal, mid-January levels. Some daily high temp records are in jeopardy for Saturday and Sunday.

 RECORD HIGHS FOR 1/12 AND 1/13

CENTRAL PARK

1/12: 64 (1890)

1/13: 68 (1932)

NEWARK

1/12: 61 (1975)
1/13: 70 (1932)

LA GUARDIA

1/12: 60 1975)
1/13: 62 (1995)

JFK

1/12: 60 (1975)
1/13: 57 (1995)

ISLIP

1/12: 58 (1995)
1/13: 60 (1995)

Intellicast.com

Rain: Friday has some pesky light rain around in the afternoon, lasting on and off through the early morning hours of Saturday. Dry Saturday and much of Sunday with mostly cloudy skies; risk of a few showers Sunday night/Monday, with more organized rainfall Tuesday through Wednesday. Frontal boundary stalling close to the region means slow improvements through Wednesday.

 

The coming cold: Temps return to near normal January levels next Wednesday-Thursday and beyond. More typical mid-winter temps settle in, but core of the brutally cold weather will stay to our west through 1/20. Potential storm around 1/19 could mean frozen inland precip, but rain at the coast. More active wintry pattern should recommence through late month into February, as the overall pattern re-sets to the one which (eventually) settled in for late December. See previous post and embedded links on this.

GENERALLY MILD, BUT DON'T COUNT WINTER OUT!

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY-HIGH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FRIDAY-SUNDAY-LOW

The pervious overview is basically on track.

 A stretch of benign January weather is underway. Temperatures for the week will average well above their normal levels, which SHOULD be around 35-40 degrees during the day. Generally, this pattern is expected to continue into much of next week, before a sharp turn to colder weather arrives sometime around January 20. 

A storm system that was supposed to impact the area for the end of the week is being pushed back (timing-wise) for Friday into Saturday. Even though the timing remains in question, the late week storm will, in effect, serve to mark the beginning of a stretch of an overall increase in precip (mostly in the form of rain until 1/20) through the third week of January. 

cpc.noaa.gov

At this point, the intrigue as to whether Old Man Winter will make a comeback is not in doubt, as most long range forecasters are touting its return. 

weather.com

However, the severity is the nagging question; will we see a wintry onslaught in the coldest part of the year, which lasts into much of February, or will it come in waves, giving us opportunities for breaks to take place? Moreover, another scenario might involve the cold overwhelming the pattern so much, that it virtually stymies any prolific storms from coming out of the gulf of Mexico, thus sparing us of any appreciable snow/wintry precipitation for the remainder of the month. 

More later this week.......

ANOTHER DECIDEDLY WARM WINTER MONTH LOOKS LIKELY FOR JANUARY

predictability of forecast period: medium

 

1. Temps were adjusted upwards for late week period, as models generally backed off on their earlier depictions of 20s and lower 30s high temps. Expect temps in the 32-37 degree range for Thursday through Sunday. Windy on Friday. 

12/29 intellicast

New Intellicast

 

2. Appreciable snow/wintry precipitation had its chance (late December and this week) to make an impact. But with available cold getting swept away through at least mid-month (and a bit beyond), no significant winter storms are likely any time soon.

Accuweather Slide:

 

3.Temps next week are normal to mild, with a major spike possible wed-fri of next week ahead of an approaching storm; highs could surpass the 50 degree threshold late next week. 

 

4. Beyond what we have currently, prospects for sustained, renewed cold are weeks away. Pattern is one where Pacific air will dominate the lower 48 states and Southern Canada.

NOAA Monthly Temp Outlook

5. 2012 officially the warmest year on record at Central Park. Temps were buoyed by a very warm winter/spring, with astronomical warmth in March!

COLD WEATHER WILL RING IN 2013...

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: HIGH through FRIDAY, MEDIUM Saturday/Sunday

1. Monday and Tuesday are the warmest days of the week, with temps in the upper 30s. Lows in the 20s. A few flurries possible Tuesday morning. Mainly cloudy, especially towards evening Monday. Winds relax somewhat, but it will still remain a bit breezy this period.

ACCUWEATHER "BALL DROP" WEATHER

2. Tuesday night-Saturday: Significant cold shot (coldest air of the winter thus far) will assert itself. Much, if not all of the period should feature temps never making it to 32 degrees.

NOAA

NOAA

3. Wednesday night and thursday night: temps should plummet to single digits in the outlying areas for overnight lows, especially where snow covers the ground. Daytime HIGH temps Thursday and Friday will hover around 29-30 degrees, with wind-chill values in the teens.

4. Mainly precip free period, but have to watch for a storm threat over this coming weekend.

5. Mid-month warm up looking likely, as wintry pattern relaxes. However, a  rejuvenation of winter should start anew by 1/20.

6. Below are the Saturday 12/29 snowfall amounts: Compared to the forecasts, most places were close or even went over, but north of NYC. Coastal sections underperformed, while eastern CT got slammed!