12/29/12 final snowfall map

for a fairly minor storm, this appeared to be a tough forecast. The track of the storm changed from an offshore one to that which was a bit closer to the coast. Adjustment to the west allowed for heavier precip to fall (which it will with liquid amounts near .50), but it also will allow milder air to penetrate the coastal plain. Much of the Island is out of the question for the three inch amounts, but they might receive a coating on the back end of the storm, once colder air is able to filter back in from the west. So overall, not a bad call, but could have been better.

The end of the week cold air mass is not to be trifled with.  It looks like bitter arctic air will make its first real push into the region, with perhaps some snowflakes around the time of the ball drop. The intellicast graphic for temps this week will take a beating; below is the old graph versus the new one, and there's no question that this is looking a  lot colder for Tuesday and beyond.

OLD INTELLICAST FROM THURSDAY

NEW INTELLICAST:

OUCH! We don't get out of the 20s for high temps for Thursday and Friday. Night time lows (especially in the snow covered areas) will hit single-digit territory for one of these night as well.

VIDEO ON THE SATURDAY SNOW...

LIGHT SNOWFALL LIKELY FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

The first accumulating snowfall is looking likely for NYC for the true winter season.

 Recall that we actually saw a decent accumulation ( and record snows for the date) but back on November 7th.

Areas nearest to the coast will get the most snow, as the storm system responsible for it will be far enough offshore to spare the region of a major winter storm.

KG- using accuweather/NOAA blend

Cold, blustery weather will take hold, with yet another storm around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week to watch out for.

Intellicast

Temps may plummet to their lowest levels of the winter by next Thursday and Friday.

TWO MAJOR COASTAL STORMS THIS WEEK

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH TUES EVE: HIGH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD WED THROUGH SUN-MEDIUM

Lets take them one at a time. Get use to this the next couple of weeks

CHRISTMAS EVE: Light precip (mostly rain at the coast) with a dusting-2" inland from 4pm-midnight. Dry, but chilly Christmas day, cold at night.

ACCUWEATHER OLD MAP

ACCUWEATHER NEWER MAP (VERY SIMILAR)

NOAA

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Heavy rain/strong winds near the coast, with mixed precip/ice inland. High potential for coastal flooding. Heaviest snows well inland, with upwards of a foot in the pure snow-zone, up to half that amount in the "mix" zones. Coast stays wet, while inland and points north are white. Windy conditions will persist into early Friday morning.

KG's Opinion

ACCUWEATHER

Intellicast temps:

SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY: Potential increasing for another winter storm. Strong shot of cold air arrive for New Years' Eve/Day, with arctic air mass enveloping the region.

CPC.NOAA.GOV

CPC.NOAA.GOV

POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR TWO ACCUMULATIING SNOWFALLS NEXT WEEK

The highly touted stormy weather pattern is evolving from warm and rainy to that of snowy and cold, and the next 10-15 days should produce two to perhaps three wintry weather events for the tri state area. Two of those three storms could carry substantial precipitation, with a minor even on Christmas eve/day.

ACCU-weather Mon/Tues Storm

ACCU-weather Wednesday night/Thursday storm

Any further south track of these storms could easily shift the heavy snows into NYC and Long Island. We've seen it happen several times in the past few years, where projected tracks favoring a mixed precip event ended up colder. 

The third system (not depicted in graphical form yet) would follow around New Years’ Eve/Day.

The rest of the overview is on track from the last two posts

More to come Sunday or early Monday

A PERIOD OF VERY STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

 

The latest in a series of storms will barrel towards the region on Friday; it will serve to usher in sustained cold through the holiday season, and as it does so, it will bring very strong winds and soaking rains to the region Friday morning.

 

A rough Friday morning rush hour may be in store, particularly from 6am onward.

 

NOAA Graphic says it all:

NOAA NWS New York on Twitter/Facebook

 

Expect airport and transit delays as well as some isolated power outages.

 

Although the winds will abate somewhat Friday, generally blustery weather will continue through the weekend, with scattered rain and snow showers during the afternoon hours for Saturday and Sunday.

Accuweather.com

 

Actual temps will finally remain near their normal December levels through Christmas, which is a far cry from a virtual sea of warmth which has, up until now, engulfed the lower 48 states for the majority of the month (opposite of November).

HPC.noaa.gov

 

Lows at night from Saturday through Tuesday will be in the 20s area-wide.

 

A weak storm may be able to produce some very light snowfall on Christmas (late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning). Thereafter, another storm – which looks to be much stronger – could impact the region around Thursday into Friday with both rain and snow.

 

The pattern is such that another storm will be possible around New Years’ Eve/Day, as the big blocking High pressure remains entrenched over Northeast Canada, and storms run underneath it to the eastern seaboard.

 

More to come over the weekend…

STORMY PATTERN TO GROW BOLDER AND COLDER THROUGH THE END OF 2012

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM

 

1. Main theme of Sunday/Monday storm still on track, but with even less emphasis on inland snow/frozen precip. Could start out frozen north and west of town, but it’s mainly periods of rain Sunday into early Monday. Temps start in the 30s, but rise into the 40s Sun-Mon.

NOAA HAS FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES THROUGH NOON SUNDAY IN AREAS IN PURPLE

 

2. A quick break, then another rainmaker arrives Monday night into Tuesday early afternoon. Temps in the 40s. Windy. Heavy rain likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with potential of an inch of precip. 

 

3. Quiet Wednesday through Thursday, but then another storm in the pipeline develops and heads into the region. Snow/rain mix Thursday afternoon, giving way to rain Thursday night/early Friday. Coldest air of the winter season filters in behind Friday storm, with temps in the 30s. Very cold looking weekend ahead.

ACCUWEATHER SLIDE:

 

4. Threat of yet another storm around Christmas.  Potential for more snow/frozen precip everywhere, as more cold air can be tapped from up north. Bears close watch.

intellicast Temps:

 

5. Expect more of the same through the New Year: Increasingly colder, with frequent opportunities for storms with wintry precip. Above average precip likely. Above average snowfall likely through at least the first week of January and quite possibly a bit beyond. Pattern resembles a very active one, with storms and prospects for storms.