Thursday, January 23, 2014
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
AFTER THE STORM, BRUTAL COLD WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION....
1. Unlike the early January storm, temps will remain below 20 degrees Fahrenheit from now through Saturday morning for the entire region. This stretch of such well-below normal readings is quite unusual, even by mid-winter standards.
2. Wednesday night and thursday night have a shot at 0 degrees in NYC, with the better shot Wednesday under clear skies, a fresh snow cover and light winds.
3. "Calm cold" of Wednesday night will be replaced by dangerous, wind-driven cold by Thursday night. Wind-chill values will range from -10 to -15 degrees below zero, with actual temps of around 5-10 degrees above zero in NYC.
4. Friday/Saturday: Remaining cold Friday, but winds die off. Saturday, we'll have to deal with a weak storm with light rain and snow, changing to light snow at night before ending. Minor accumulation.
5. Sunday/Monday: Wicked cold will be felt yet again, with single-digit wind-chill values likely. A more significant storm then moves near on Monday night and Tuesday, with the potential for more accumulating snow. Chance of hitting 0 at night again early next week.
2. Wednesday night and thursday night have a shot at 0 degrees in NYC, with the better shot Wednesday under clear skies, a fresh snow cover and light winds.
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| NOAA: Lows Wednesday night |
3. "Calm cold" of Wednesday night will be replaced by dangerous, wind-driven cold by Thursday night. Wind-chill values will range from -10 to -15 degrees below zero, with actual temps of around 5-10 degrees above zero in NYC.
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| NOAA Forecast map for Thursday |
4. Friday/Saturday: Remaining cold Friday, but winds die off. Saturday, we'll have to deal with a weak storm with light rain and snow, changing to light snow at night before ending. Minor accumulation.
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| Intellicast.com |
5. Sunday/Monday: Wicked cold will be felt yet again, with single-digit wind-chill values likely. A more significant storm then moves near on Monday night and Tuesday, with the potential for more accumulating snow. Chance of hitting 0 at night again early next week.
Monday, January 20, 2014
MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL IMPACT THE TRI STATE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...
Snow will overspread the area from west to east in the mid-afternoon hours and become heavy at times by late in the day.
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| Canadian Model shows a classic snowstorm for the area |
Snow will persist throughout the night Tuesday night; with increasing winds, the temps will be brutal (very similar to the January 2/3 storm) with readings near 10 degrees during the height of the storm.
A general 6-12" is likely, with amounts of over a foot likely for southern and eastern sections of Suffolk County. Snow will likely be over by 5-6am Wednesday morning.
Bitterly cold weather will persist behind the storm. NYC has another shot at 0 degree readings for Wednesday night.
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| Accuweather.com |
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| Intellicast.com |
Temps in the extended range are overdone for late this weekend, as another shot of arctic air will arrive by early next week.
Watch for snow chances for Thursday, with even a better chance over the weekend.
stay tuned
No video today due to technical difficulties...
Watch for snow chances for Thursday, with even a better chance over the weekend.
stay tuned
No video today due to technical difficulties...
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
A MORE SUSTAINED COLD WILL GRIP THE AREA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND
PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE SNOW THREATS, AS WELL AS BITTER SHOTS OF ARCTIC COLD THROUGH FEBRUARY 5...
The winter has had some pretty impressive cold shots thus far. Going back as far as the last week of November, we've seen bitterly cold air charge in for a day or two. However, while nasty in its own right, the cold we've seen has been transient; warm air has made quick inroads, scouring out the arctic air masses. Even the blizzard back in early January was a quick memory the following week, with most of the snow cover actually being wiped out in short order.
But as mid-winter arrives, there are strong signs that a more sustained wintry pattern will evolve over the eastern two thirds of the nation.
Beginning this weekend, successive cold shots from the north will carve out a dip in the jet stream; cold will be longer lasting and warm air will have limited opportunity to gain ground through the first week of February. Also, fast-moving disturbances will lead the arctic charge in a way that will promote deeper and deeper cold to get involved, making for times of potentially severe cold during this time frame. The combination of these two elements will ultimately mean numerous snow chances.
Through Tuesday of next week, any snow/mixed precipitation will be light. The first shots of precip will come Friday night, then again Sunday, both bringing very minor impacts to our region. However, a more organized storm will try to get going next Tuesday night into Wednesday near the coast. This storm could yield a more widespread snowfall for the region.
HIGHLIGHTS:
Friday/Saturday: light snow and rain during the day, then light snow Friday night into Saturday. Little to no accumulation.
Sunday: Another close call with a weak, fast moving storm, but at worst, it's a light snow Sunday with a dusting to an inch in some spots. The bigger story is the wind Sunday, with cold temps moving in Sunday night into Monday.
Tuesday/Wednesday: Stronger storm will develop, but its track is uncertain. A widespread snowfall would be felt if the storm is close enough to our coast. A cold shot will likely follow in for Thursday into Friday, where temps could stay in the teens and low 20s for Thursday and Friday. Watch for forecasted highs and lows to trend downward for late next week from where they are now!
Beyond the 24th: The sustained pattern of well-below normal temps should continue virtually unabated through the first 5-7 days of February.
The bottom line: Beginning this weekend, we're likely to be locked into a wintry regime, with multiple snow threats through at least the 5th of February and possibly a bit beyond that point, before the overall pattern can try and break down in a significant way!
stay tuned...
The winter has had some pretty impressive cold shots thus far. Going back as far as the last week of November, we've seen bitterly cold air charge in for a day or two. However, while nasty in its own right, the cold we've seen has been transient; warm air has made quick inroads, scouring out the arctic air masses. Even the blizzard back in early January was a quick memory the following week, with most of the snow cover actually being wiped out in short order.
But as mid-winter arrives, there are strong signs that a more sustained wintry pattern will evolve over the eastern two thirds of the nation.
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| Accuweather.com |
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| NOAA Temp Probabilities From Jan 23-Jan 29th, 2014 |
Beginning this weekend, successive cold shots from the north will carve out a dip in the jet stream; cold will be longer lasting and warm air will have limited opportunity to gain ground through the first week of February. Also, fast-moving disturbances will lead the arctic charge in a way that will promote deeper and deeper cold to get involved, making for times of potentially severe cold during this time frame. The combination of these two elements will ultimately mean numerous snow chances.
Through Tuesday of next week, any snow/mixed precipitation will be light. The first shots of precip will come Friday night, then again Sunday, both bringing very minor impacts to our region. However, a more organized storm will try to get going next Tuesday night into Wednesday near the coast. This storm could yield a more widespread snowfall for the region.
HIGHLIGHTS:
Friday/Saturday: light snow and rain during the day, then light snow Friday night into Saturday. Little to no accumulation.
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| Accuweather.com |
Sunday: Another close call with a weak, fast moving storm, but at worst, it's a light snow Sunday with a dusting to an inch in some spots. The bigger story is the wind Sunday, with cold temps moving in Sunday night into Monday.
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| Intellicast.com |
Tuesday/Wednesday: Stronger storm will develop, but its track is uncertain. A widespread snowfall would be felt if the storm is close enough to our coast. A cold shot will likely follow in for Thursday into Friday, where temps could stay in the teens and low 20s for Thursday and Friday. Watch for forecasted highs and lows to trend downward for late next week from where they are now!
Beyond the 24th: The sustained pattern of well-below normal temps should continue virtually unabated through the first 5-7 days of February.
The bottom line: Beginning this weekend, we're likely to be locked into a wintry regime, with multiple snow threats through at least the 5th of February and possibly a bit beyond that point, before the overall pattern can try and break down in a significant way!
stay tuned...
Monday, January 13, 2014
WINTER WEATHER WORRIES WON'T WANE AS WE HEAD INTO FEBRUARY...
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| NOAA New York on Facebook and Twitter |
1. Storm for tomorrow should not deliver as much rain as the one from Saturday did. Heaviest rains will be from 6am-3pm in most spots, with drying out for the evening commute. Total rainfall should average about a half an inch.
2. Wednesday and Thursday are dry. Temps remain on the "warmer" side, with readings staying above normal levels for this time of year. A weak coastal low misses us during this period.
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| Intellicast |
3. Friday night/Saturday: Some uncertainty with how close the next coastal low gets to our region. Best shot at snow is north and west of NYC, with several inches possible Friday night into early Saturday morning before things clear out for the majority of the weekend. For the city and coast, it would be a mixed bag/plain rain. Bears watching.
4. Saturday night/Beyond: Overall pattern points to a very formidable period of wintry weather in the form of storms and cold for the last ten days of January and early February. Indications are that plenty of cold air will be available to tap into for any storms that come along. Above average snowfall likely from Jan 21st-Feburary 5th. We'll have to see if another surge of arctic air can plummet into the east between the 25th and the 1st.
Wednesday, January 8, 2014
JANUARY THAW WILL FEATURE TWO POTENT STORMS...
Much like last year at this time, a spike in temps and a respite of sorts will commence for the next 5-7 days. Unlike last year however, we'll have two storms to deal with, which will spoil what should be a welcomed break from Old Man Winter's icy grip.
On Saturday, rain will overspread the region during a very warm mid afternoon, and become heavy by late afternoon and night. Winds will pick up from the south, with gusts as high as 50mph Saturday night. Urban flooding and Ice Jams along rivers are likely Saturday night.
Sunday through Tuesday are dry. Winds will remain somewhat elevated on Sunday behind the storm, but temps will still be solidly in the 40s throughout the period from Sunday through Tuesday for hight.
Another cold front and storm system will pass through Tuesday night into a good part of Wednesday. Rain should be the main factor with this storm, along with yet another push of strong southerly winds.
Near - to - below normal readings will build back in late next week. The last ten days of the month look generally stormy and cold for much of the northern U.S.
On Saturday, rain will overspread the region during a very warm mid afternoon, and become heavy by late afternoon and night. Winds will pick up from the south, with gusts as high as 50mph Saturday night. Urban flooding and Ice Jams along rivers are likely Saturday night.
Sunday through Tuesday are dry. Winds will remain somewhat elevated on Sunday behind the storm, but temps will still be solidly in the 40s throughout the period from Sunday through Tuesday for hight.
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| Intellicast |
Another cold front and storm system will pass through Tuesday night into a good part of Wednesday. Rain should be the main factor with this storm, along with yet another push of strong southerly winds.
Near - to - below normal readings will build back in late next week. The last ten days of the month look generally stormy and cold for much of the northern U.S.
Sunday, January 5, 2014
BEFORE THE TEMPS PLUNGE....
I've experienced few flash freeze events before, and the NWS is not exactly setting things in stone as of their last forecast discussion. It's going to be a "nowcast" situation; we'll have to see how much (and i suspect we'll have a lot) of rainfall and standing water freezing over tomorrow night.
That'll have to be reported by the public. it's not something that i think can be modeled well or, for that matter, forecasted well. I don't know of any models or product, aside from observations, which ascertains how much standing water is on the ground. Best you can hope for is a rapid snow melt between now and tomorrow night at around 8pm. We have temps surging into the 40s and lower 50s right now! Amazing!
So between now and then, I guess there's at least a shot at most of the liquid to melt and/or run off, but it's not likely in my humble opinion. In either case, people need to watch out on Tuesday morning for dangerous black ice, especially while driving. . .
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