VIDEO: SPRING IS IN THE AIR THROUGH MID WEEK

SPRING IS NOT ALL IT’S CRACKED UP TO BE IN THE NORTHEAST!

1. Where we sit, near bodies of very cool water, spring is tenuous early on, with only gradually warming temps. Thus, expect typical spring-like weather, which around here, is on-again, off-again spells of increasingly warmer temps.

 

2. TEMPS: Only a gradual return to near-normal temps by the weekend. Dry and breezy on Wednesday will make the area fire-prone. Until then, highs around 50. 

 

3.  A period of light to moderate rainfall looks likely for Friday, ending in the evening and starting early in the morning. Windy Friday afternoon and night. More rain will be common the further south you travel to the coast on Friday. Skies clear for the weekend and things remain dry.

 

4. Monday-Wednesday. Area will be situated near a sharply divided frontal zone. Best shot at mild temps will be south of NYC into the Mid-Atlantic States; pattern is cool and damp for most of us, with chilly conditions building back in. Temps could be held back into the upper 40s. Update will be needed; high variability with such a set-up. 

Accu-weather

5. Hurricane Season several weeks away from starting: The overall pattern which has promoted above-normal tropical landfalls on the east coast since 2005 will remain through the 2013 season, with a more robust overall season than last year now being touted.

CHILLY WEATHER STILL LURKS AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL

1. Eastern winter storm left most of the area on Monday with nary a flake.  The worst of the snow was confined to coastal Jersey. The map from this past Saturday held serve for the most part.

2. Quiet week overall, but windy conditions develop Thursday. Temps in the upper 40s, with 30s at night. Showers are likely Thursday morning and afternoon, with clouds building late Wednesday and lasting through much of Thursday.

3. Nice Easter weekend, but then things start to get unsettled for late Sunday into Monday, as a cold front presses in. Yankees' and Mets' openers look good for now, as rain moves through early enough to not cause problems. Temps near 50 all weekend, with falling temps Monday afternoon, as a shot of chill whips in from the north.

WPC shows front crossing the region Monday morning

Intellicast

4. A return to chilly weather arrives Tuesday, with a possible storm mid-week. Temps below normal, with highs staying in the 40s.

Accu-weather

Accu-weather

MONDAY STORM SNAPSHOT

Here's the latest idea, which is a good blend the model guidance as well as Accuweather/Weatherbell.

If the forecast holds, the NYC metro would get a couple of inches at most, but the danger of the heavier precip sneaking in is making this a very low confidence situation; a deviation of 50-75 miles north of the placement of the main low pressure would double these amounts across the board in a hurry!

If anything drastic changes with respect to the "high impact" zone coming north, an update will be needed tomorrow night.

By the way, the cold will hold through the week, as the pattern remains locked in to a cold regime.

TWC temps for Tuesday and Wednesday struggle to reach 50; the normal high for this time of year is in the low to mid 50s.

Anyone hoping for spring to show up any time within the next week or so will be looking like an April fool...

ON THE FRINGE (FOR NOW) OF AN EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM

Even with the blizzard back in February, the tristate area has been on the periphery of storms; in other words, they would be either just to our south, or, as in the case of the February blizzard, too far to our east. Recall those places in eastern Long Island and Eastern Connecticut were an outlier as far as their astronomical totals, but most of the rest of the region had uniform snow totals of around 6-10 inches on average.

Sunday night and Monday, the song remains the same.

Once again, the question will become how far north the storm can get. Introducing heavier rates of precipitation will ultimately lead to a heavy wet snowstorm for most of the region, but especially in the higher terrain. Lighter rates with the storm would create a nuisance type situation for most of the NYC metro; this is mainly because of the time of year when ground temps are marginal at best to support snow.

So without further ado, here are the two scenarios! The bulk of the storm would be Monday.

Another update will come tomorrow.

SCENARIO #1: created by Accu-weather

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WATCHING FOR A CROSS-COUNTRY STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK

The overview which handled the storm yesterday was poor, as the snow changed over later than expected, making for widespread accumulations of up to five inches in some places Monday evening. Also, the winds never seemed to ramp up once the storm left town late Tuesday afternoon.

Snow showers and flurries should develop tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with light accumulations possible, especially near the coast (east of NYC).

ACCU-weather

A chilly, but fairly tranquil end of the week/weekend looks to be on tap.

However, a major storm will develop and sweep across the country at the same time. Any potential affects in our area would be around Monday, but how far north the storm comes remains in question. The potential is certainly there for a heavy precip/strong wind producer early next week, so updates will be needed.

As noted here since late February, the blocking pattern we're seeing is not breaking down; it will lead to continued chilly weather through at least the end of the month, along with additional coastal storms.

Bittersweet Bust

there's no denying it; i love snow. But also there's no denying the fact that there will be a lot of water cooler bashing of the weatherpeople tomorrow, and with good reason. Nearly 4 inches of snow has piled up in the Park, with places in coastal Northeast New Jersey getting close to 6 inches. The title of the post says it all; it's very rare when this blog is completely off the mark, but this is one of those occasions for NYC metro and Nassau counties.

So what do we take from this? It's only the second time since 2000 when snow accumulated in the park after March 15th TWICE. However, with the pattern being locked in for the foreseeable future, i cannot see why, at this juncture, many places won't end up with at least a trace of snow twice more before April first.

The first opportunity comes wednesday night into thursday, as the strong northwesterly flow will usher in a few small disturbances that can squeeze out a shot at some light snow on Wednesday night. '

A major storm will develop over the western states and chug eastward; the question will be how far north will it come Sunday into Monday. This looks like another slow-moving, pain-in-the-neck storm, and if we get caught in it,  we have the necessary cold air to work with to produce something significant.

I cannot for the life of me ever seeing this much of a signal towards cold being touted by CPC. it's very rare to see them this bullish on the chill in the 6-10 day period, but my guess is that, because of the enormous blocking pattern, a slow transition from winter to some semblance of spring, is all we can reasonably hope for going forward into April.