A WARM WEEK OVERALL, WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FOURTH

 

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD THROUGH WEDNESDAY---Low

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD FROM THURSDAY-SUNDAY-Medium

 

1. Temps running a bit warmer than forecasted from a few days ago. Highs near 90 Tuesday and Wednesday, with 80s on the coast. Fair on Tuesday. Noticeable increase in humidity values for Wednesday

 

2. High potential for thunderstorms early Wednesday. Storms will be most numerous from 12am Wednesday to 12pm Wednesday, then scale back to just “risk” after noontime. Hot. Highs near 90 with muggy conditions, even at times of cloudiness. Viewing for fireworks should be good most places, but a risk of a thunderstorm can’t be ruled out.

 

3. Some other sources are more bullish on thunderstorms lingering into Wednesday night just before/during the majority of fireworks celebrations. Update will be done (special edition) to account for uncertainty of the forecast for Wednesday. Look for one tomorrow.

intellicast temps

 

4. Continued very warm Thursday-Saturday, as temps rise above 90 NYC/upper 80s points east. Saturday's the hottest day next seven days. Risk of a thunderstorm late Saturday. Sunday’s dry and a bit cooler.

MODELS FORESAW HISTORIC HEAT WAVE

A look at the actual high temps from yesterday compared with the GFS forecast of the core of the heat wave shows that the models were pretty good in showing where the extreme readings would lie.

however, as impressive as the models' performance was, the overall international and American suite were fairly disorganized  in predicting a late night barrage of thunderstorms on Saturday, which begat a path of destruction and death.

As for our weather, another warm week is in store, with the growing likelihood of showers and thunderstorms at some point on the Fourth. However, the long term picture is starting to show a sign that a cool second week of July may be in the offing.

more tomorrow.

VIDEO: DODGING FIREWORKS BEFORE THE FOURTH

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD: MEDIUM through Tuesday. LOW Wednesday and beyond.

IT'LL GET HOT, BUT...

If it's any consolation, the core of max heat the next five days will stay just south of us. A picture speaks a thousand words, so i doctored up a GFS model temp profile to show you how intense the heat is getting across the country and how, in spite of the heat wave this coming week and last week,  we have really lucked out this month.

From Dr Rayn Maue site. This shows a "mean" temp for the next five days. in the pink area, many long standing records will fall by the wayside.

However, notice we're on the edge of this blistering heat meaning twofold: a possibility of thunderstorms to be intense at some point this weekend (odds favor sunday, but see the last post) and 90s will be the rule, but century-mark readings in real terms may be averted.

HEAT WAVE ON THE WAY FOR NYC/NEWARK, WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD NOW THROUGH TUESDAY—MEDIUM

1. Warmer weather makes inroads beginning Thursday, with the warmest day on Saturday. Highs cooler at the coast (low/mid 80s) but low 90s will be prevalent in the urban areas through Sunday. Dry heat Thursday/Friday, as humidity levels remain tolerable.

ACCUWEATHER:

2 . Like last week, bona-fide “heat wave criteria” will likely be met in NYC/Newark, but not on the coast; sea-breeze and overall wind direction will keep temps in the low/mid 80s through the weekend.

NWS TEMPS FOR SAT/SUN SHOWS COOLER AT THE COAST

INTELLICAST TEMPS

3. Risk of a thunderstorm both Friday (morning) and Saturday (afternoon), especially areas north and west of NYC. Storms will generally not affect anyone during this time frame. 

4. Threat of heavy rain/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, as somewhat cooler air makes its way towards us for early next week. Bares watching. Late week video will handle thunderstorm threat for Sunday.

5. Monday through Wednesday looking tranquil, with temps in the low to mid 80s for Independence Day. 


6. June will finish with slightly below normal temps for the month, and less precipitation than average for the month. July will open with near normal temps overall, but heat will increase in duration and intensity, possibly peaking in mid-July before leveling off to near normal temps late month. 

DEBBY DROUGHT DENTING DIATRIBE.

Just wanted to comment on the NHC discussion at 11pm tonight...

i took the NHC forecast for debby and doctored it up with where over 5 more inches of rain could fall the next two to three days. the slow motion of the cyclone could easily lead to these totals being realized; although this flooding is dangerous for motorists, it can lead to an easing of the drought situation in the southeast states.

rain arrived around 11pm

Timing is the worst job in weather. I think most meteorologists are handcuffed by the forecast models that have revolutionized the whole science of meteorology. It's ironic, i know. but i'll try to explain it in a future post. 

more later.