HEAT WAVE ON THE WAY FOR NYC/NEWARK, WITH A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIOD NOW THROUGH TUESDAY—MEDIUM

1. Warmer weather makes inroads beginning Thursday, with the warmest day on Saturday. Highs cooler at the coast (low/mid 80s) but low 90s will be prevalent in the urban areas through Sunday. Dry heat Thursday/Friday, as humidity levels remain tolerable.

ACCUWEATHER:

2 . Like last week, bona-fide “heat wave criteria” will likely be met in NYC/Newark, but not on the coast; sea-breeze and overall wind direction will keep temps in the low/mid 80s through the weekend.

NWS TEMPS FOR SAT/SUN SHOWS COOLER AT THE COAST

INTELLICAST TEMPS

3. Risk of a thunderstorm both Friday (morning) and Saturday (afternoon), especially areas north and west of NYC. Storms will generally not affect anyone during this time frame. 

4. Threat of heavy rain/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, as somewhat cooler air makes its way towards us for early next week. Bares watching. Late week video will handle thunderstorm threat for Sunday.

5. Monday through Wednesday looking tranquil, with temps in the low to mid 80s for Independence Day. 


6. June will finish with slightly below normal temps for the month, and less precipitation than average for the month. July will open with near normal temps overall, but heat will increase in duration and intensity, possibly peaking in mid-July before leveling off to near normal temps late month. 

"weather overview" terms to help kick the point-and-click:

PREDICTABILITY OF FORECAST PERIODS

HIGH- most credible sources are in excellent agreement

MEDIUM: most credible sources are in fairly good agreement, with some differences

LOW: widespread differences in forecasts, AND overall low confidence from NWS Upton office

Risk of a shower/thunderstorm-probability of a shower is low. Most of the forecast period will be dry.

Numerous (heavy can be inserted) Showers/thunderstorms- probability of showers is high, and could happen multiple times during the given forecast period. Constant rain is not expected

Rainy conditions-intermittent precip; rain can vary in duration, but usually will last more than an hour. Light to moderate intensity. Less than an inch expected during the forecast period.

Heavy Rain-soaking, constant rainfall for at least an hour (duration can be much longer); amounts over a half an inch. 

Light snow-very light snowfall. Little to no accumulation. Duration depends. 

Snowy conditions-intermittent snow can last more than an hour at a time, but generally average less than 3 inches total.

Heavy Snow-heavy snowfall. Snowfall of at least 3 hours in duration. Totals can be added in

Drizzle-constant drizzle

Occasional Drizzle-intermittent drizzle