PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL IDEA FOR UPCOMING WINTER STORM...

The idea that this storm can be a bigger deal is still on the table. Subtle differences in the models could mean a far greater impact to the region.  However, the idea of a complete miss is not in the offing using all available guidance.

For now though, the combination of the very cold temps for the duration of the storm (and afterwards) plus the amounts we will receive, will leave no doubt that this is shaping up to be a very formidable period of winter weather.

The fluff factor of the storm along with gusty northeasterly winds will create whiteout conditions for a brief time early Friday morning.

Accuweather.com

A storm will affect us Sunday night into Monday, but with much warmer temps before and during
the storm.  For the Monday-Tuesday period, we should look for more bitterly cold air to dive in and produce dangerously cold conditions for a time, before temps start to come up for mid to late next week.

more tomorrow

SNOWSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING....

ARCTIC COLD WAVE WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING

1. Significant snowstorm likely starting Thursday morning, but highest snowfall totals should peak for Thursday afternoon into Friday early morning before ending. Option for a more robust storm still an option, but a moderate-sized snow event remains more likely. Update to come tonight or tomorrow.

2. Significant travel delays likely Thursday night into Friday morning. Some blowing and drifting of the snow is likely due to falling temps Thursday, increasing winds and powdery nature of snow. Widespread significant accumulations of around 6” are likely for all areas.

3. Temps plummet Friday night in the storm’s wake. Actual temps will plummet to between 0 and 5 degrees for   NYC, with below-zero readings likely for north and west of town. Dangerous wind-chill values of below zero are likely Saturday morning. 

more later

LATE WEEK WINTER STORM SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID FIRST-HALF OF JANUARY

Most modeling is now converging on a storm for late week. The scenarios
are as follows:

The tendency for slightly more high-lattitude blocking over the pole of late would suggest that the option for a storm is certainly there.

North Atlantic Oscillation going "negative" is a signal for blocking

However, most modeling is very inconclusive as to the overall impact.

At the very least, barring a complete miss (least likely option), some accumulating snow and mixed precipitation is a good bet for Thursday into Thursday night, with at least a light/moderate impact on travel.

Scenario #1 would surely be a much bigger deal, producing a major impact to travel on Thursday night. This idea, while less likely,  cannot be ruled out just yet.

Cold temperatures would provide for a quick accumulation from a powdery snow in either case.

A quick shot of very cold air will move in behind the departing storm for Friday night into Saturday morning,  regardless of the magnitude of the storm's eventual impact.  The potential is growing for lows to be in the teens and single digits for Saturday morning's low temps in NYC. A threat of near 0 degree readings for far outlying areas Saturday morning becomes even more likely with an established snow cover in place.

The overall pattern of well-below normal temperatures should continue virtually unabated through the 15th. Any let up in temps below the average (our average is around 40 for a high temp) should be on the order of 1-2 days at most, before more bitter, arctic air makes headway into the eastern states.

For example, we should see a moderation in temps for Saturday night through Monday night, before more cold air plunges in for the middle of next week, probably around the 7th or 8th.

Intellicast

more later...

VIDEO: A COASTAL, THAN A COLD SHOT

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SHARP COLD SHOT WILL RING IN THE NEW YEAR IN NYC...

1. Isolated rain and snow showers possible under mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning into the afternoon, especially east of the city. Clearing and turning windy by day's end through the overnight hours into friday morning; temps start out near 40, then drop off with lows in the 20s.

Intellicast Precip Chances: 12am Thursday 12/26/13 through 11pm Thursday 12/26/13

2. Friday and Saturday are sunny, with temps starting in the 30s for highs Friday. Even warmer readings move in for Saturday, with highs well into the 40s -- pushing 50.

3. Clouds move in for Sunday with rain chances increasing during the day. Culprit would be a coastal storm, which could last into Monday before clearing out. This will need updating.

4. Significant cold shot moves in behind the departing low on Monday, with widespread below normal temps taking hold for the eastern two thirds of the nation through the end of the week. Ball drop on New Years' Eve should be quite cold, with readings in the low 20s a very good bet!

Intellicast Temps

NOAA Low Temp Forecast For New Years' Eve

5. Generally, much colder-than-normal weather looking likely through at least the 10th of January. We'll have to watch for a storm sometime around the 6th to see if the pattern delivers just cold, or cold, plus a significant winter storm.

RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THEN CHRISTMAS COLD

The strength of the warmth for this weekend will be bolstered by a high pressure cell that is typical of wintertime in the Southeast states. With a broad southwesterly flow, this high will flex its muscle, providing us with record-challenging warmth Sunday. At the same time, the high will keep precip at bay, especially near the coast through Sunday night, leading to a mostly dry weekend in and around NYC and Long Island.

Accuweather OLD map

Accuweather New Map

But the skies will remain cloud covered most of the weekend

Intellicast cloud cover

Intellicast Precip chances

Still, it will feel like a heat wave compared to the last week or so

Temps will return to normal levels for Christmas.

Intellicast Temps

The best chance of widespread rain is Sunday night, with lingering showers into Monday morning.

A prolonged stretch of cold weather is likely from Christmas to New Years' Day and beyond, as more cold air seeps in from Canada.

Snow threats will have to be monitored after the 25th.

Seasonal Snowfall
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM

Worcester: 18.6"
Allentown: 13.1"
Hartford: 12.4"
Boston: 11.4"
Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"
Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"
Newark Airport: 9.4"
NYC Central Park: 8.6"
NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"
Providence: 7.1"
NYC JFK: 6.9"
Islip, NY: 6.7"
Washington Dulles: 4.7"
Atlantic City: 3.3"
Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"
Washington National: 1.5" 

UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM WILL BE WET, NOT WHITE...

1. Snow develops tomorrow morning between 6-9AM and continues for much of the day. A general 2-4” is likely before the snow dissipates between 4-6pm. Highs will hover near 30 under cloudy skies. Clearing late. Rain should mix with snow in south shore communities, which will hold down accumulations there.

 

2. Fair and dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temps start to become much warmer by weeks end.

 

Intellicast

3. Mild, but wet weekend looking likely this weekend. Moist southerly flow combined with small-scale storm systems will trigger rain starting Friday, but particularly Saturday. Best weekend day is Sunday, with clearing skies and temps returning to near normal levels.

Accuweather.com

4.  Christmas Day temps look cold, but not overpoweringly so for this time of year.  No sign of any rain/snow chances yet in the long term beyond this weekend. 

VIDEO: INLAND SNOWSTORM ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MIXED BAG IN NYC

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PRELIMINARY WINTER STORM IDEA FOR SATURDAY

The question that still needs to be ironed out for the upcoming weekend storm are as follows:
a). How strong will the storm be?  A stronger storm would tend to drive warmer air up the coastal plain and make for more of a mixed precip event for the city and coast. However, a weaker storm would actually mean MORE SNOW for the coast; in this scenario, warm air would not get here in time to change the precip over to a mix. And with cold air in place, it would be able to hold on for the duration of the storm.

Ironically, the opposite effect would take place further away from the coast. Well inland, the strong storm option would crush the Hudson Valley and points to the north, as copious amounts of moisture would be thrown up into the higher elevations, with very little changeover to plain rain. However, a weaker storm would be robbed of moisture, thus only giving the region to the north of the coast a light to moderate storm...

Having fun yet...?

More later

UPDATED SNOWFALL IDEA FOR 12/10 STORM...

A WINTRY WEEK OF WEATHER IN THE MAKING...

An active, cold wintry pattern has established itself over the norther tier of states. As a result, the region is primed for bouts of light to perhaps moderate snowfalls as well as significant cold, even by December standards.

Current Snow Cover

On Tuesday,  a storm system will brush the region with a light snowfall, particularly for the city band coast. Timing looks to be in the afternoon.

My thinking...Not an official forecast...

By late week, attention will shift toward how long and how strong a bitterly cold air mass will affect the region.

Intellicast

 Temps will likely stay below freezing during the day beginning on Thursday and into Friday.

The weekend is problematic. There is some concern for potentially extreme cold by the weekend, but more than the usual amount of uncertainty exists.

Another shot at snowfall will come late this weekend and early next week, as a storm makes a move out of the southern plains states towards the east coast.

Frequent updates will be necessary this week...

VIDEO: UPDATE ON THE STORM TONIGHT AND THE SUNDAY NIGHT STORM

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ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SHAPING UP FOR DECEMBER

The stretch of benign weather with very little precipitation over the last few months is now transitioning to a more stormy. active picture overall. The presence of both very bitter arctic air over the Canadian Prairies (bolstered by a healthy snow cover over our neighbor to our north), as well as the typical strengthening of the jet stream, should spell lots of opportunities for rain and eventually frozen precip types as we move deeper into the month. This is in contrast to last December already; chances for storms didn't materialize until the last ten days of the month, and few of them managed to bring any wintry weather. But with the extreme contrast in air masses this month, we should look for a combination of wild temp swings (which we've seen already) and generally speaking, an uptick in storminess.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Wednesday night/Thursday: Widespread drizzle and fog should develop ahead of the warm front and continue through the morning.  Light rain and drizzle should scour out in the afternoon Thursday, with very mild temps. Readings many top 60 in the normally warmer spots around the region, even in NYC.

Intellicast

Intellicast: Hourly Temp Forecast for December 5 (Thursday)

Thursday Night/Friday: Steadier rains develop late at night and should persist through much of Friday and Friday night. Up to an inch of liquid is expected with this front. Rain will transition to snow and sleet well north and west of the city and coast Friday night, so that extreme northwestern New Jersey could pick up a light accumulation late Friday night into early Saturday morning before precip ends everywhere.

On Friday morning, it's still quite mild! However, temps will tumble steadily through the daytime hours and through the night Friday night as the winds shift to the northwest.

Intellicast 7-Day Temp Forecast

Saturday: Best looking day of the weekend, but we're cold again. Saturday night looks quite chilly.

NOAA Lows Saturday Night

Sunday-Tuesday: Complex series of storms will move through.

Potential for a wintry mix for all areas for at least a few hours during the afternoon, eventually becoming  rain at the coast and in the city for Sunday night into Monday. As you head well away front the city and coast, it's more of a wintry mix scenario. This will need fine tuning.

Another storm may follow in behind for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

VIDEO: DECEMBER STARTS OFF ON A MILD NOTE

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WATCHING A COASTAL STORM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

Behind our pre-Thanksgiving storm, the weather will be quiet, but cold for late this week into the weekend.

Intellicast

By Saturday and Saturday night, a frontal zone will draw near the region, adding plenty of cloud cover by Saturday night into Sunday. Some very light rain or a rain/snow mix is possible Saturday overnight into Sunday; areas to the east of NYC stand the best chance at seeing any precip during this time frame. Chances for light precip will persist into Monday, but amounts and location of the rain will be very spotty.

Meanwhile, a more organized low pressure will begin to take shape along the frontal zone to our south early next week. It is here where the forecast will depend on the track of this low. If there is an impact at all, the prospects for mainly rain in the city and coast are high, but as you get further inland, the chances for more significant frozen precip do exist if the timing and track are just right.

By Wednesday, skies clear out, but it'll be breezy in the wake of the departing storm. Temps for  Wednesday and Thursday will be near their normal levels for this time of year.

There are signs in the long term which point to a rather cold, stormy December in the making.

The bulk of the cold will be confined to our west, but will try and press in from the northern plains states. This should aid in the development of storms where the warmth (over the southern states) and cold intersect.

More to come Saturday or Sunday.

COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE 2002 ON THE MENU

1985 and 1994 also had highs of 41 degrees

1. Coastal storm will disrupt travel Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Heavy rain and gusty winds likely during this time frame, with strong gales out of the south. Mild and breezy. Much needed rainfall in most areas will average 2 inches, possibly more.

Add caption

2. After the storm clears, it's cold again! We could crack the top ten coldest Thanksgivings in the last 50 plus years at Central Park. Blustery Thursday; Big parade may have problems with the various floats, which may have to be sidelined due to winds gusting to 40mph!

Intellicast

3. Long term trends point towards below normal temps to open December. With storm track becoming evident, prospects for an above normal snow cover nationwide will continue. However, no El Nino/La Nina signal is expected through the winter, which will complicate any shot at clues beyond a week or two as to how harsh the winter will be.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SUNDAY, WITH RECORD COLD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING

The latest push of arctic air over the eastern states will out-do the last two shots beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Monday.

The worst of the cold will be accompanied by very strong gusty winds Saturday night through Sunday, so that wind-chill values will be in the teens on Sunday and Sunday night, with actual high temps struggling to reach the mid 30s. The point-and-click temps from a few days ago depicting highs near 40 on Sunday are in retreat mode, as the models pick up on the ferocity of the cold, which, for the time of year compared to normal, are nothing short of brutal!

Old Intellicast Temps From Monday

New Intellicast Temps

NOAA Forecast for this Sunday's Highs back on Monday

New NOAA forecasted HIGHS Sunday

Temps will come up gradually Monday; winds will relax on Monday, but highs will still be well below normal levels, only making to the mid and upper 30s for high temps.

Tuesday and Wednesday are problematic. A series of storm systems will be the focus for the extended forecast.

Overall, the pattern is becoming more volatile. Airport travel during one of the busiest times of the year next week may be a big issue nationwide, even if our area does not feel the effects of any particular storm.

In terms of our weather, the development of a coastal storm (and its path) and a renewed shot of well below normal temps for late next week will have to be fine-tuned over the weekend.

Thanksgiving weekend looks chilly at this time.

PRECIP: The sure shot at rain will arrive on Friday, but amounts and intensity will be very light. A coastal storm will not get its act together this weekend. The bulk of the steadier rains should arrive with the passage of the front sometime Saturday morning, before things clear out. 

Small disturbances on the heels of the powerful arctic frontal boundary on Saturday evening will lead to the development of snow showers in most locations.

more to come this weekend...

MORE FRIGID TEMPS ON TAP TO OPEN THANKSGIVING WEEK

After a tranquil, late week temp rebound, we'll see the development of a storm for Saturday night into Sunday. This storm will most likely bring us a chilly rainfall and gusty winds during this time frame. Some wet snow flakes will mix at the end when precip lightens up Sunday morning. Well north and west of the city,  there is the prospect of a wet snowfall at the end of the storm, but details are still in the works.

What is much more certain is a renewed push of well-below normal temps for Sunday and Monday, with some relaxation for Tuesday. The intellicast temps are cold, but likely overdone for Sunday; low-level cold rushing in behind the storm should be plentiful, which is tough for forecast models to pick up.

Intellicast

Notice how far south the freezing line is for daytime HIGHS on Sunday in the NOAA graphic. Also notice that readings are only near 20F up near Minnesota!

NOAA HIGHS Sunday

With all of Canada covered in snow, combined with the plunging of the jet stream like we've seen for the past two weeks or so, the stage is set for more waves of winter-like air to have a free pass at the eastern states as we move into December.

NAFES Model Temps Show Well Below Normal For 11/26-12/1

more tomorrow or Wednesday

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF WINTRY CHILL NEXT WEEK

1. After the snow and winter cold of this past mid-week, a mild weekend is ahead! Temps will make a run at 60 today. Clouds build in late, with light rain showers possible near the coast in the morning Saturday morning as a small disturbance moves through. Clearing briefly ensues Saturday afternoon for all areas.

Intellicast

2. Cloudiness and fog chances quickly increase again Saturday night and will continue through Sunday.  A warm front will push through Sunday midday, bringing with it light rain and drizzle; the development of fog looks likely even during the daylight hours, as the very mild air surges quickly in above a relatively cool land area.

3. Winds increase Sunday night, with rain developing ( up to a half inch) late Sunday into Monday morning.  Clearing skies Monday midday and into Monday night, but becoming chilly and remaining breezy (winds will shift from a mild southerly flow to a chilly northwesterly flow Monday afternoon).

NOAA: Precip amounts from 2am MON-7am MON 

4. Tuesday through Thursday are much cooler, but overnight temps are problematic; models still trying to determine the strength of the high pressure that will preside over our weather mid-week. The stronger the high, the colder the temps will be at night. This will need updating.  Temps creep up back to normal levels by next Friday through next weekend.

VIDEO: SNOW WILL FALL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD TO FOLLOW

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MAJOR MID-WEEK COLD SHOT NEXT WEEK COULD SET OFF A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM

*****Prepare now for winter-like chill for late next week*****

But first,

Friday and Saturday are fair, but temps are knocked back to where they should be for this time of the year. It'll be very chilly on Friday, which will make it feel like it's in the 40s; actual temps will be closer to 50.

Another benign cold front will push through early next week. Dry conditions will prevail, but temps will take a hit later Monday and into Tuesday.

Overall, the upper level winds will continue to usher disturbances and reinforcing cool shots through as we progress through the week.

Intellicast

Intellicast

Once the dry cold front passes through Monday night,  the stage will be set for a very remarkable cold shot for mid-November, as temps are likely to plummet from Wednesday through Friday into next week. Readings DURING THE DAYTIME may not surpass 40 degrees, with a strong northwest wind.

NOAA HIGHS Wednesday

NOAA LOWS Wednesday night/Thurs

NOAA Highs Thursday

 

The details surrounding the evolution of a potential coastal storm are still in doubt for Wednesday of next week, but the ingredients are there for a significant rain-maker on the coast, with heavy inland snows on its northwest flank.

 

The last two years alone should be good enough evidence that snow can and will happen in late fall around these parts.

 

Stay tuned