are as follows:
The tendency for slightly more high-lattitude blocking over the pole of late would suggest that the option for a storm is certainly there.
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| North Atlantic Oscillation going "negative" is a signal for blocking |
However, most modeling is very inconclusive as to the overall impact.
At the very least, barring a complete miss (least likely option), some accumulating snow and mixed precipitation is a good bet for Thursday into Thursday night, with at least a light/moderate impact on travel.
Scenario #1 would surely be a much bigger deal, producing a major impact to travel on Thursday night. This idea, while less likely, cannot be ruled out just yet.
Cold temperatures would provide for a quick accumulation from a powdery snow in either case.
A quick shot of very cold air will move in behind the departing storm for Friday night into Saturday morning, regardless of the magnitude of the storm's eventual impact. The potential is growing for lows to be in the teens and single digits for Saturday morning's low temps in NYC. A threat of near 0 degree readings for far outlying areas Saturday morning becomes even more likely with an established snow cover in place.
The overall pattern of well-below normal temperatures should continue virtually unabated through the 15th. Any let up in temps below the average (our average is around 40 for a high temp) should be on the order of 1-2 days at most, before more bitter, arctic air makes headway into the eastern states.
For example, we should see a moderation in temps for Saturday night through Monday night, before more cold air plunges in for the middle of next week, probably around the 7th or 8th.
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| Intellicast |
more later...
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