JANUARY 1-15 OVERVIEW; COLD AND STORMY

Last January got off to a slow start. In fact, the over-hyped blizzard which started it all,  did not rear its ugly head until the 25th. This year however, we look to be facing a month in which cold and storm threats show up earlier, with the emphasis on the first half of the month. Thereafter, a pullback of sorts should ensue, before another active period of weather sets up for late January into much of February.

The temperature forecast for Monday through Wednesday is problematic. The forecasted high and low temps are not catching up to reality in some circles;  with a direct discharge of Arctic air, we should struggle to get out of the 20s on Tuesday, with low temps in the teens for Wednesday morning!

more later....

WINTER COMES BACK AND IT'S ON THE ATTACK

1. Historic Christmas Eve/Day warmth gradually gives way over the weekend. Light rain moves in late Friday night/early Saturday before ending Saturday afternoon and night.

WPC: Rain chances for 7am Saturday

2. Additional scattered showers will move through the region on Sunday, but the overall extent and coverage of these showers will be less than Saturday's rainfall.

3. Monday is dry, but much cooler. Temps may get stuck in the 30s for the Mid-Hudson Valley and points north. Closer to the coast, highs will be in the 40s.

4. Rain for Tuesday,  ending by evening. Snow and ice for areas well inland, then changing over to rain. Potential for ice accumulations Tuesday morning well inland.

5.  Dry for Wednesday, then light rain early on New Years' Eve.  Drying out but turning colder for New Years' Weekend, with temps in the 40s.




6. Evolving pattern change to cold and stormy has begun. Stage is set for back-and-forth winter, with plenty of cold and storms to go with it. Active southern jet stream will often phase with polar jet, creating prolific snow-makers. Bears watching.

VIDEO: A MURKY, MILD CHRISTMAS WEEK

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MID-WEEK RAIN PRECEDES A DRY CHRISTMAS

1. 36-48 hour period of December chill takes shape for Friday and Saturday. Temps hit the upper 40s Friday, but highs will struggle to reach 40 on Saturday on a brisk northwest wind. Wind-chill values Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s all day; a few flurries are possible both days.

2. Short-lived chill lingers Sunday with less wind.  By Monday,  temps once again rebound to above-normal levels.  Clouds increase for Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

NOAA: Temps from 12am Sunday to 11pm Monday

NOAA: Temps from 12am Tuesday to 11pm Wednesday

3. Rain arrives early Wednesday with warm temps.  Rain continues for a 6-10 hour period on Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night.

4.  Record highs are likely on Christmas Eve with plenty of clouds and a few showers late.  Thursday night,  a weak cold front clears the area of rain and lowers our temps for Christmas Day. Passage of aforementioned frontal boundary should dash any hopes of cracking the top 5 warmest Christmas "days" on record, but it'll be close, with high temps in the 50s.

NOAA: Warmest recorded temps for 12/25 at Central Park

5.  After this weekend, no significant cold for the remainder of the month. Much like last winter, any pattern change to cold and stormy won't come before January 10.

WARMTH WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH CHRISTMAS...

1. Record warmth from this weekend will be replaced by cooler temps for Tuesday through Thursday. However, temps will still run well above normal levels from where they should be for this time of year, with highs in the lower 50s for the majority of the work week ahead. 

2. Downpours and a few thunderstorms are a good bet for Monday night into Tuesday. Expect a 6-8 hour window of rain from about 4pm onwards Monday night into early Tuesday before it clears out. The rainfall deficit will be chipped away, but only slightly from this cold frontal passage.

Tropical Tidbits: GFS forecast for 7pm Monday

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3. Dry for mid-week. Windy on Tuesday, with cooler temps (but still above normal).

4. Showers develop for Thursday and Thursday night. Chilly weekend settles in next weekend, with highs in the 40s. Some rain/wet snow could clip the region Friday as a storm develops off of the New England coast and heads out to sea.

7online.com/weather

5. Temps quickly rebound into "above normal" territory for Christmas week. Any shots of cold look to be transient, with storms staying confined mostly to the western states.

ANOTHER QUIET WEEK OVERALL

The active southern storm track which is associated with El Nino continues to show prominence over the southern and western states. Subtropical moisture from the Pacific Ocean will, by and large, continue to fuel systems across the Lower-48 States.

Intellicast

However, at least for this week, the storms won't be able to turn up the coast. Rather, they will get blocked as they come up with the result being a fairly dry week for the area.

NOAA: Total precipitation through Friday

Moreover, bitter cold air remains trapped in Canada; this is due to the overall configuration of the jet stream.



As the cold intensifies over the next few weeks, the active southern storm track will ultimately lead to many opportunities for substantial winter storms; but this process will be slow to evolve.

WATCHING A COASTAL STORM FOR NEXT WEEK

1. After Wednesday’s rain, skies remain cloudy for a good part of Thursday before clearing late Thursday afternoon and night. Departing low pressure will leave strong gusty winds in its wake from mid-morning Thursday through much of Thursday night. Temps initially will be in the 50s during the day, but then start to fall rapidly into the 30s at night. A chilly night is on tap for Thursday night, with gusty winds.

WPC.noaa.gov

2. Winds relax on Friday as high pressure takes control. Fair weather persists for the weekend into early next week. Temps will be seasonable, with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s.

7online.com/weather

3. Low pressure will take shape early next week off the South Atlantic coast. Track of the slow-moving storm is uncertain; potential is there for a soaking rainfall accompanied by strong winds for Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Conversely, aforementioned strong high situated to our north may block the storm’s progress, keeping the rain to our south. Bears watching.

4. No sign of any widespread wintry weather (cold and/or snow) in the long range through mid-month.