Sunday, September 20, 2015
Wednesday, September 16, 2015
SUMMER HEAT IN RETREAT NEXT WEEK...
1. Mid-summer like heat will remain over the region through Sunday, with fair skies. Temps so far have run well-above normal throughout the month; in many locations, monthly mean temps for September could be in the top five when all is said and done.
2. Higher humidity works into the region for the weekend. A weak cold front will spark isolated showers for interior sections Saturday night, but most places will be dry.
3. Onshore flow develops for Monday; large high pressure building over the northeast will usher in cooler air and plenty of clouds.
4. Showers work their way towards the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall pattern would support a steady rain at some point during the mid-week period; however, there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to the evolution of the track of any organized coastal storm. Bears watching.
5. Skies should clear late week; temps should rebound to above-normal levels once again by next weekend.
2. Higher humidity works into the region for the weekend. A weak cold front will spark isolated showers for interior sections Saturday night, but most places will be dry.
3. Onshore flow develops for Monday; large high pressure building over the northeast will usher in cooler air and plenty of clouds.
4. Showers work their way towards the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall pattern would support a steady rain at some point during the mid-week period; however, there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to the evolution of the track of any organized coastal storm. Bears watching.
5. Skies should clear late week; temps should rebound to above-normal levels once again by next weekend.
Wednesday, September 9, 2015
Sunday, September 6, 2015
WATCHING FOR LATE-WEEK RAIN CHANCES
1. Much of the week will be very warm to hot, with daily high temps easily surpassing the normal values (for this time of the year) by 5-10 degrees each day. Conditions will be dry through Thursday; humidity values will be uncomfortable, but not oppressive Monday and Tuesday. The worst day for combined heat and humidity should occur on Wednesday, when dew points climb into the 70s.
2. By late Thursday into Friday, a front will approach from the west and slow down near the area. Weak disturbances in the atmosphere should work in tandem with the warm, humid air mass in place to generate one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Thursday night and into part of Friday. Any rain would help alleviate the short-term drought that has developed, especially over Long Island and Connecticut, where conditions are driest.
3. Conditions should improve for the upcoming weekend with temps remaining above normal. More warm, dry weather should persist for mid-to-late month, solidifying the widely held idea that September would be a very mild month across the east and south.
2. By late Thursday into Friday, a front will approach from the west and slow down near the area. Weak disturbances in the atmosphere should work in tandem with the warm, humid air mass in place to generate one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Thursday night and into part of Friday. Any rain would help alleviate the short-term drought that has developed, especially over Long Island and Connecticut, where conditions are driest.
3. Conditions should improve for the upcoming weekend with temps remaining above normal. More warm, dry weather should persist for mid-to-late month, solidifying the widely held idea that September would be a very mild month across the east and south.
Sunday, August 30, 2015
SEPTEMBER SIZZLE
A very warm pattern for this time of year will dominate our weather through at least the first 10 days of the month. The alignment of the jet stream will stay unchanged; this will lead to well-above normal temps and very low chances for rain.
Some isolated showers and storms could pop up on Thursday and again on Friday (both in the afternoon hours) but most places will remain dry though at least Sunday and probably beyond.
Easterly winds will take hold for weekend beginning on Friday, meaning slightly cooler and less humid conditions. However, temps will stay in the mid to upper 80s, which is some 5-8 degrees above normal.
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| Weatherspark: Average daily high temps in September for New York |
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| 7online.com/weather |
Easterly winds will take hold for weekend beginning on Friday, meaning slightly cooler and less humid conditions. However, temps will stay in the mid to upper 80s, which is some 5-8 degrees above normal.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
Wednesday, August 19, 2015
FRIDAY DOWNPOURS
Any rainfall over the last week has been spotty around the region and has done little to alleviate the dry conditions we’ve experienced over the last 30 days.
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| NOAA: rainfall last 30 days |
In the short term, it’ll remain warm and humid through Thursday for the entire area. Clouds will be more prevalent on Thursday, which will mitigate the influence of daytime heating. Any showers or thunderstorms will be heavily confined to west of the Hudson River, with more isolated chances the further east you head, including Long Island.
By dawn Friday morning, a slow moving front will trigger heavy showers area-wide. These showers will slowly move east. With a highly moistened atmosphere in place, any shower can produce very heavy rain in a short amount of time; this could cause urban and highway flooding to transpire very quickly during the morning rush hour. Chances for showers should begin to wane by mid-to-late afternoon as the front slowly creeps through the region.
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| Intellicast: weather map for 8am Friday |
Conditions will improve by Saturday and Saturday night. Any showers or thunderstorms during this time frame will be widely scattered.
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| Weather Underground: Smartphone |
The next front will arrive on Tuesday morning with less humid air. Until then, the air mass will remain tropical, while temps will be very close to normal for this time of year.
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