VIDEO: UPDATE ON THE WEEKEND STORM

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WEEKEND COASTAL STORM SCENARIOS.....

Simply put, the forecast problem for the Saturday storm will ultimately come down to how the cyclone interacts with the jet stream. Refer to the previous post for more information.

SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM APPEARS LIKELY FOR SATURDAY

A large storm will emerge out of the Gulf of Mexico on Friday and move up the eastern seaboard for Saturday into Saturday night. 

WPC: Position of storm 7pm Friday

The combination of a storm with a rich moisture supply and a strong jet stream will lead to an  intensifying cyclone just off of the New Jersey coast Saturday morning; from there, the storm will track to Cape Cod, MA and head out to sea. 

In general, snow will begin in the pre-dawn hours of Saturday, with a gradual mix of snow, sleet and rain by mid-morning; a change back to snow will ensue by afternoon and the snow will finally taper off during the early evening hours. Strong winds out of the northeast will mount to between 25-35mph in the afternoon.   

This track, if it materializes, would ultimately give the region a heavy, wet snowfall.  However, much is still unknown about the transition back to snow during the afternoon;  significant accumulations have the greatest chance of happening during that period in time. 

To reiterate, the potential is there for widespread significant snowfall totals, even in places where rain initially cuts down on snowfall amounts. This is due to the storm being capable of rapidly intensifying just before it reaches beyond our latitude.

Stay tuned.

VIDEO: THIS WEEK'S WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS

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COLD AIR WILL REMAIN STEADFAST AND INTENSIFY BY LATE MONTH

1. A much talked about respite from cold temps for mid-month in many circles will be short-lived to a period of 24-36 hours, starting and ending Sunday. Thereafter, near-to-below normal temps will once again take hold of the region through the end of the month and probably beyond. 

2. On Friday, a cold front will cross the region with some cloud cover and gusty breezes in the afternoon. Winds will remain elevated through the night before diminishing by Saturday. 

Intellicast: Surface map for Friday 1/16/15

3. After a cold, dry day on Saturday, a chilly rain will fall Sunday and into Sunday night. Highest rainfall totals will be felt over the city and coast and points south; light rain in the morning will become steady to heavy at times in the afternoon, finally tapering off late at night.

7online.com/weather

 4. Progressively colder weather will build in throughout the week next week, with a chance at snow showers Wednesday. Very cold weather looks likely by the 25^th, with a shot of at least one significant storm before the month draws to a close.

FOR MONDAY, A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE FOR MOST OF THE REGION....

A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain will begin just before dawn Monday and continue
most of the day. Precipitation amounts will generally be light, but the combination of stubborn cold air and the variety of precip types will make for slippery, trecherous travel for much of the day.

Intellicast.com: 7am Monday projected surface map

PLEASE ALLOW EXTRA TRAVEL TIME MONDAY!

Aside from the travel problems of Monday, the rest of the week looks benign. A warm-up is likely by the weekend into early next week, with temps rising into the 40s, possibly to near 50.

COLD REMAINS ENTRENCHED THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK

1. After a very cold day Saturday, temps rebound into the low 30s for Sunday, as the strong Arctic high pressure starts its retreat.

Intellicast hourly temps for Sat 1/10

2. By Monday, low pressure will influence our weather with a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. Potential for slick travel Monday, but the retreating cold air mass will ensure that snowfall accumulations stay on the meager side.

Meteorologist Joe Cioffi on Facebook: Monday's storm snap shot

3. Tuesday and Wednesday are dry and chilly. A stronger, more organized storm will emerge out of the southern states by late in the week, offering a shot at a significant winter storm for the region. Bares watching.

7online.com/weather

4. In general, the overall pattern will turn less favorable for extreme cold as we approach next weekend and the following week, as a strong Pacific jet stream reasserts itself and eventually scours out the remainder of the Arctic air across the lower-48 states. A return to a more wintry regime should ensue after the 25^th.

Climate Predictions Center- 8-14 day temp probability