A MORE SUSTAINED COLD WILL GRIP THE AREA BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND

PATTERN SHOULD PRODUCE MULTIPLE SNOW THREATS, AS WELL AS BITTER SHOTS OF ARCTIC COLD THROUGH FEBRUARY 5...


The winter has had some pretty impressive cold shots thus far. Going back as far as the last week of November, we've seen bitterly cold air charge in for a day or two. However, while nasty in its own right, the cold we've seen has been transient; warm air has made quick inroads, scouring out the arctic air masses. Even the blizzard back in early January was a quick memory the following week, with most of the snow cover actually being wiped out in short order.

But as mid-winter arrives, there are strong signs that a more sustained wintry pattern will evolve over the eastern two thirds of the nation.

Accuweather.com

NOAA Temp Probabilities From Jan 23-Jan 29th, 2014

Beginning this weekend, successive cold shots from the north will carve out a dip in the jet stream; cold will be longer lasting and warm air will have limited opportunity to gain ground through the first week of February. Also, fast-moving disturbances will lead the arctic charge in a way that will promote deeper and deeper cold to get involved, making for times of potentially severe cold during this time frame. The combination of these two elements will ultimately mean numerous snow chances.

Through Tuesday of next week, any snow/mixed precipitation will be light. The first shots of precip will come Friday night, then again Sunday, both bringing very minor impacts to our region. However, a more organized storm will try to get going next Tuesday night into Wednesday near the coast. This storm could yield a more widespread snowfall for the region.

 HIGHLIGHTS:

Friday/Saturday: light snow and rain during the day, then light snow Friday night into Saturday. Little to no accumulation.

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Sunday: Another close call with a weak, fast moving storm, but at worst, it's a light snow Sunday with a dusting to an inch in some spots. The bigger story is the wind Sunday, with cold temps moving in Sunday night into Monday.

Intellicast.com

Tuesday/Wednesday: Stronger storm will develop, but its track is uncertain. A widespread snowfall would be felt if the storm is close enough to our coast. A cold shot will likely follow in for Thursday into Friday, where temps could stay in the teens and low 20s for Thursday and Friday. Watch for forecasted highs and lows to trend downward for late next week from where they are now!

Beyond the 24th: The sustained pattern of well-below normal temps should continue virtually unabated through the first 5-7 days of February.

The bottom line: Beginning this weekend, we're likely to be locked into a wintry regime, with multiple snow threats through at least the 5th of February and possibly a bit beyond that point, before the overall pattern can try and break down in a significant way!

stay tuned...

WINTER WEATHER WORRIES WON'T WANE AS WE HEAD INTO FEBRUARY...

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1. Storm for tomorrow should not deliver as much rain as the one from Saturday did. Heaviest rains will be from 6am-3pm in most spots, with drying out for the evening commute. Total rainfall should average about a half an inch.

2. Wednesday and Thursday are dry. Temps remain on the "warmer" side, with readings staying above normal levels for this time of year. A weak coastal low misses us during this period.

Intellicast

3. Friday night/Saturday: Some uncertainty with how close the next coastal low gets to our region. Best shot at snow is north and west of NYC, with several inches possible Friday night into early Saturday morning before things clear out for the majority of the weekend.  For the city and coast, it would be a mixed bag/plain rain. Bears watching.

4. Saturday night/Beyond: Overall pattern points to a very formidable period of wintry weather in the form of storms and cold for the last ten days of January and early February. Indications are that plenty of cold air will be available to tap into for any storms that come along.  Above average snowfall likely from Jan 21st-Feburary 5th. We'll have to see if another surge of arctic air can plummet into the east between the 25th and the 1st.

JANUARY THAW WILL FEATURE TWO POTENT STORMS...

Much like last year at this time, a spike in temps and a respite of sorts will commence for the next 5-7 days.  Unlike last year however, we'll have two storms to deal with, which will spoil what should be a welcomed break from Old Man Winter's icy grip.

On Saturday, rain will overspread the region during a very warm mid afternoon, and become heavy by late afternoon and night. Winds will pick up from the south, with gusts as high as 50mph Saturday night. Urban flooding and Ice Jams along rivers are likely Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday are dry. Winds will remain somewhat elevated on Sunday behind the storm, but temps will still be solidly in the 40s throughout the period from Sunday through Tuesday for hight.

Intellicast

Another cold front and storm system will pass through Tuesday night into a good part of Wednesday. Rain should be the main factor with this storm, along with yet another push of strong southerly winds.

Near - to - below normal readings will build back in late next week. The last ten days of the month look generally stormy and cold for much of the northern U.S.

BEFORE THE TEMPS PLUNGE....

I've experienced few flash freeze events before, and the NWS is not exactly setting things in stone as of their last forecast discussion. It's going to be a "nowcast" situation; we'll have to see how much (and i suspect we'll have a lot) of rainfall and standing water freezing over tomorrow night.

That'll have to be reported by the public. it's not something that i think can be modeled well or, for that matter, forecasted well. I don't know of any models or product, aside from observations, which ascertains how much standing water is on the ground. Best you can hope for is a rapid snow melt between now and tomorrow night at around 8pm. We have temps surging into the 40s and lower 50s right now! Amazing!

So between now and then, I guess there's at least a shot at most of the liquid to melt and/or run off, but it's not likely in my humble opinion. In either case, people need to watch out on Tuesday morning for dangerous black ice, especially while driving. . .

BEYOND THE BLIZZARD, ANOTHER FIERCE ARCTIC ATTACK LOOMS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...

1.  After a very cold night in the wake of the storm, temps will surge Saturday night overnight into Sunday. The change in temps from Friday's bitter nighttime lows to those of Sunday will border on spectacular, with readings surging into the 40s for highs Sunday! Rain develops Sunday night, and becomes heavy into Monday morning.

Accuweather

2. Spike in temps Sunday will be swept away Monday afternoon and night by a vicious arctic air mass. This time, the mercury plummets to dangerous levels yet again for Monday night. Readings will bottom out dramatically from the 40s to the teens and single digits to near zero in a matter of hours; potential for "flash freeze" of standing water from the rainfall may lead to dangerous icing conditions on roads, bridges and transit systems for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Intellicast

3. Continued cold for Tuesday into Wednesday, with windy conditions persisting. Temps moderate yet again for late next week, but we'll have to watch for a storm for around the 9th, which could still produce snow/mixed precip for  our region.

4. A general respite from the cold looks to establish itself around the 11th and continue into much of that week.

VIDEO: MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY MORNING...

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PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL IDEA FOR UPCOMING WINTER STORM...

The idea that this storm can be a bigger deal is still on the table. Subtle differences in the models could mean a far greater impact to the region.  However, the idea of a complete miss is not in the offing using all available guidance.

For now though, the combination of the very cold temps for the duration of the storm (and afterwards) plus the amounts we will receive, will leave no doubt that this is shaping up to be a very formidable period of winter weather.

The fluff factor of the storm along with gusty northeasterly winds will create whiteout conditions for a brief time early Friday morning.

Accuweather.com

A storm will affect us Sunday night into Monday, but with much warmer temps before and during
the storm.  For the Monday-Tuesday period, we should look for more bitterly cold air to dive in and produce dangerously cold conditions for a time, before temps start to come up for mid to late next week.

more tomorrow