VIDEO

ANOTHER PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOMS FOR EARLY WEEK

TONIGHT'S RAINFALL LOOKS HEAVY FOR EASTERN LONG ISLAND...

There can still be some leftover showers tomorrow, but the bulk is done by mid morning the latest, with westernmost sections clearing first. Eastern sections will get the heaviest rainfall, as a coastal storm develops to our south and heads up and out.

OVERALL WEATHER BACKDROP PORTENDS RAINY, COOL SUMMER AND A ROUGH WINTER

Last week, the Accuweather summer forecast came out, and it is in concert with the Weatherbell forecast. 

The implication is for a “normal” summer, with hot shots being transient. A wet June and August is in the works if the predictions from Accuweather hold, with some tropical influence not out of the question. It should be noted that so far, their predictions of drought relief for the northeast states have been good, and it was pointed out here in an earlier post.

  

NOAA SUMMER TEMP FORECAST

Additionally, as far as the tropics are concerned, Weatherbell warns that in-close development to the United States during the hurricane season (as opposed to long-tracked storms like Irene) will be a threat; both outlets predict near-to-below normal overall activity in the tropics.

EXAMPLE OF "IN-CLOSE DEVELOPMENT."  HURRICANE BOB (1991)

EXAMPLE OF "LONG-TRACKED STORM." HURRICANE IRENE (2011)

A number of mitigating factors will put a lid on a cornucopia of named storms.

Looking even further ahead, according to weatherbell, the prospect of a cold, stormy winter is more likely than a benign winter, IF the trends towards a weak El Nino signal were to continue through the summer months. This trend will be watched closely and updated accordingly.

From NASA: THE DELICATE EL NINO BALANCE

"Weak" phase of El Nino often leads to cold, stormy winter in the Northeast. However, if the El Nino develops too strong, storms can usher in warm air, which would overwhelm the pattern and prevent snow from becoming prodigious. 

Finally, the last two years (which saw La Nina dominate the equatorial Pacific waters) led to erratic and inaccurate seasonal forecasting, particularly when it came to winter.  However, the rise of a weak El Nino pattern in the Pacific, and the ebbing of the La Nina pattern in the very same areas, may give weight to overall MORE predictability of weather over the next year.

MID-WEEK MARRED BY MURKINESS, THEN A MAGNIFICENT MOTHERS’ DAY WEEKEND

1. Slow-moving storm system to bring showers and a few thunderstorms beginning towards afternoon Tuesday into early Thursday. Rain should be intermittent, but should add up to a general ½-1-inch amount. Small chance of heavy rain over Long Island Wednesday night from coastal storm, but probability is low for now. Temps low 60s throughout.

 

 

2. Slow clearing Thursday, but rain chances diminish for the most part (except for east of NYC Thursday, where a few showers should linger).

 

Intellicast Probability of Precip:

3. Skies clear for weekend weather, and temps rebound to near 70. Some middle 70s possible for NYC and points west. Afternoon sea breeze for coastal sections. Lows in the 50s.

 

4. Monday needs to be watched for next chance of rain, but probability is low for now.

 

5. Early-season mischief possible in the Caribbean late May/early June according to Weatherbell. Overall pattern may be able to support early tropical storm/hurricane.

WHEN IN DOUBT, LEAVE WHAT'S OUT

Well, since last wednesday, if you've read here, you got the jump on what's becoming another ugly weather week ahead. The heaviest rains look to be Wednesday into Thursday morning, but showers and some thunderstorms will work their way into the picture as soon as early Tuesday morning. The three-day precip totals from HPC are easily over an inch for most

but the question for Wednesday is how heavy will the rain amounts be from a coastal storm, which should at least clip the areas east of NYC with a good soaker.

accuweather.com

As we move through the rest of the year, the prospect of erasing the dry winter is increasingly likely

Expect slow clearing again like last week, but the weekend should be basically okay. A good mothers' day is in the offing.

the bigger post on the winter and summer outlooks are coming tomorrow, along with a video. Sorry for the slowness of the posting.

BIGGER POST TOMORROW ON SUMMER/WINTER OUTLOOKS AND OBSERVATIONS. . .

i'm pretty fired up over what i'm seeing from multiple sources on  the summer and winter seasons that are on the horizon.

It may be indeed be time to start pondering the idea that our benign period of weather that started in December and culminated in the historic March heat wave, may be at an end.

A pretty dramatic ride is underway, and it could very well last into winter 2012-13...

more later.

PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A BREAK SUNDAY/MONDAY...

The maddening weather waffling continues, with many forecasters scrambling to adjust to a weather pattern that is stagnant, making it difficult to pinpoint periods of cloudiness, sunshine and rain. For the next few days, with the exception of Sunday and Monday, this general theme should continue, with the risk of showers and some thunderstorms (Friday) persisting into Saturday, before we get a sunny, settled day to end the weekend.

A front draped across the Middle-Atlantic states is responsible for all the chaos, as it stubbornly and painfully moves from the south to our north. The other culprit is a blocking high pressure situated across northeast Canada, which is pushing clouds over us and a raw wind right off of the cool New England waters. Oddly enough, as we witnessed yesterday, this pattern can allow for some breaks from time to time in the mid to late day period, which can cause wide temp variations over a relatively small geographical area.

Here is the front on Thursday, located near the Del Marva Peninsula:

Now here is the front on Friday evening:

this process will literally take until Saturday evening, before a second front ( depicted above over central PA) comes in and clears us out for Sunday.

Until then, with the exception of Friday, the warmth that was promised early week continues to get chopped apart.

Once we get past Monday,  another storm system will advance in and make things unsettled again by Tuesday into Wednesday. There's a threat that this pattern leads into next weekend.

May is typically a wet month around here. The region has received a general 2-4 inch rainfall over the span of a few weeks time, and there is a good chance that once to the 15th, we find that many parts of the tri state region pick up even more (not counting what falls before Sunday).