TWO STORMS TO TRACK THROUGH MONDAY

The ideas for Friday night into Saturday's storm are pretty much on track from the earlier post. Rain becomes likely late Friday night through Saturday afternoon, with a period of moderate rain overnight Friday/Saturday morning. Total rainfall should average around 0.50 to 1 inch, with lesser amounts north and west.  As mentioned previously,  cold air, which is entrenched now, will give way to the oncoming storm as it approaches from the south.  A stubborn high pressure needs to hold its ground in order for the region to get a winter storm, but in this case, the high will push off the coast and allow warm air to flood the mid and North Atlantic states .

Tropical Tidbits: 18z GFS 1/13/15

Meanwhile, during Saturday, a new storm should take shape over the southern plains. The storm's interaction with the northern branch of the jet stream will be critical to our weather for Sunday night into Monday.  If the two entities stay separate, our weather would be blustery and cold to open the new week; however, should they merge, we would have a chance at accumulating snow for Sunday night into Monday.

7online.com/weather

One thing's for certain: Next week looks cold, with highs struggling to get out of the 20s from Monday through Wednesday. A moderating temperature trend should occur by late next week, but more storm chances will come with it.

WEEKEND COASTAL STORM THREAT

1. Weak storm system shuffles through the region on Tuesday afternoon and evening. Mainly light rain/snow for NYC and points south and east during the late afternoon through the evening hours before ending.  Windy conditions Tuesday. Across the Lower Hudson Valley and Connecticut (especially in the hilly terrain),  all snow is likely, with generally less than 2 inches of accumulation for the entire storm. Temps in the 40s Tuesday, then much cooler for Wednesday.

HudsonValleyWeather.com

2. Cool conditions persist from Wednesday through the end of the week. Wednesday is the coldest day of the week; highs in the 30s and strong northwest winds will make it feel like it's in the 20s and teens most of the day.




3. Cold air retreats as a potent storm pulls up the coast. Rain should develop from south to north Friday night and continue into Saturday afternoon before ending. A period of freezing rain is possible well inland before rain takes over Saturday.  Another update will come Wednesday to address this.

4. Turning sharply colder for Sunday and MLK Day. Temps in the 30s .

VIDEO: MID-MONTH METEOROLOGICAL MISCHIEF

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JANUARY 1-15 OVERVIEW; COLD AND STORMY

Last January got off to a slow start. In fact, the over-hyped blizzard which started it all,  did not rear its ugly head until the 25th. This year however, we look to be facing a month in which cold and storm threats show up earlier, with the emphasis on the first half of the month. Thereafter, a pullback of sorts should ensue, before another active period of weather sets up for late January into much of February.

The temperature forecast for Monday through Wednesday is problematic. The forecasted high and low temps are not catching up to reality in some circles;  with a direct discharge of Arctic air, we should struggle to get out of the 20s on Tuesday, with low temps in the teens for Wednesday morning!

more later....

WINTER COMES BACK AND IT'S ON THE ATTACK

1. Historic Christmas Eve/Day warmth gradually gives way over the weekend. Light rain moves in late Friday night/early Saturday before ending Saturday afternoon and night.

WPC: Rain chances for 7am Saturday

2. Additional scattered showers will move through the region on Sunday, but the overall extent and coverage of these showers will be less than Saturday's rainfall.

3. Monday is dry, but much cooler. Temps may get stuck in the 30s for the Mid-Hudson Valley and points north. Closer to the coast, highs will be in the 40s.

4. Rain for Tuesday,  ending by evening. Snow and ice for areas well inland, then changing over to rain. Potential for ice accumulations Tuesday morning well inland.

5.  Dry for Wednesday, then light rain early on New Years' Eve.  Drying out but turning colder for New Years' Weekend, with temps in the 40s.




6. Evolving pattern change to cold and stormy has begun. Stage is set for back-and-forth winter, with plenty of cold and storms to go with it. Active southern jet stream will often phase with polar jet, creating prolific snow-makers. Bears watching.

VIDEO: A MURKY, MILD CHRISTMAS WEEK

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MID-WEEK RAIN PRECEDES A DRY CHRISTMAS

1. 36-48 hour period of December chill takes shape for Friday and Saturday. Temps hit the upper 40s Friday, but highs will struggle to reach 40 on Saturday on a brisk northwest wind. Wind-chill values Saturday will be in the 20s and 30s all day; a few flurries are possible both days.

2. Short-lived chill lingers Sunday with less wind.  By Monday,  temps once again rebound to above-normal levels.  Clouds increase for Monday afternoon into Tuesday.

NOAA: Temps from 12am Sunday to 11pm Monday

NOAA: Temps from 12am Tuesday to 11pm Wednesday

3. Rain arrives early Wednesday with warm temps.  Rain continues for a 6-10 hour period on Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night.

4.  Record highs are likely on Christmas Eve with plenty of clouds and a few showers late.  Thursday night,  a weak cold front clears the area of rain and lowers our temps for Christmas Day. Passage of aforementioned frontal boundary should dash any hopes of cracking the top 5 warmest Christmas "days" on record, but it'll be close, with high temps in the 50s.

NOAA: Warmest recorded temps for 12/25 at Central Park

5.  After this weekend, no significant cold for the remainder of the month. Much like last winter, any pattern change to cold and stormy won't come before January 10.