Wednesday, January 1, 2014
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
PRELIMINARY SNOWFALL IDEA FOR UPCOMING WINTER STORM...
The idea that this storm can be a bigger deal is still on the table. Subtle differences in the models could mean a far greater impact to the region. However, the idea of a complete miss is not in the offing using all available guidance.
For now though, the combination of the very cold temps for the duration of the storm (and afterwards) plus the amounts we will receive, will leave no doubt that this is shaping up to be a very formidable period of winter weather.
The fluff factor of the storm along with gusty northeasterly winds will create whiteout conditions for a brief time early Friday morning.
A storm will affect us Sunday night into Monday, but with much warmer temps before and during
the storm. For the Monday-Tuesday period, we should look for more bitterly cold air to dive in and produce dangerously cold conditions for a time, before temps start to come up for mid to late next week.
more tomorrow
For now though, the combination of the very cold temps for the duration of the storm (and afterwards) plus the amounts we will receive, will leave no doubt that this is shaping up to be a very formidable period of winter weather.
The fluff factor of the storm along with gusty northeasterly winds will create whiteout conditions for a brief time early Friday morning.
 |
| Accuweather.com |
A storm will affect us Sunday night into Monday, but with much warmer temps before and during
the storm. For the Monday-Tuesday period, we should look for more bitterly cold air to dive in and produce dangerously cold conditions for a time, before temps start to come up for mid to late next week.
more tomorrow
SNOWSTORM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY MORNING....
ARCTIC COLD WAVE WILL PRODUCE BITTERLY COLD TEMPS FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING
1. Significant snowstorm likely starting Thursday morning, but highest snowfall totals should peak for Thursday afternoon into Friday early morning before ending. Option for a more robust storm still an option, but a moderate-sized snow event remains more likely. Update to come tonight or tomorrow.
2. Significant travel delays likely Thursday night into Friday morning. Some blowing and drifting of the snow is likely due to falling temps Thursday, increasing winds and powdery nature of snow. Widespread significant accumulations of around 6” are likely for all areas.
3. Temps plummet Friday night in the storm’s wake. Actual temps will plummet to between 0 and 5 degrees for NYC, with below-zero readings likely for north and west of town. Dangerous wind-chill values of below zero are likely Saturday morning.
more later
Sunday, December 29, 2013
LATE WEEK WINTER STORM SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID FIRST-HALF OF JANUARY
Most modeling is now converging on a storm for late week. The scenarios
are as follows:
The tendency for slightly more high-lattitude blocking over the pole of late would suggest that the option for a storm is certainly there.
However, most modeling is very inconclusive as to the overall impact.
At the very least, barring a complete miss (least likely option), some accumulating snow and mixed precipitation is a good bet for Thursday into Thursday night, with at least a light/moderate impact on travel.
Scenario #1 would surely be a much bigger deal, producing a major impact to travel on Thursday night. This idea, while less likely, cannot be ruled out just yet.
Cold temperatures would provide for a quick accumulation from a powdery snow in either case.
A quick shot of very cold air will move in behind the departing storm for Friday night into Saturday morning, regardless of the magnitude of the storm's eventual impact. The potential is growing for lows to be in the teens and single digits for Saturday morning's low temps in NYC. A threat of near 0 degree readings for far outlying areas Saturday morning becomes even more likely with an established snow cover in place.
The overall pattern of well-below normal temperatures should continue virtually unabated through the 15th. Any let up in temps below the average (our average is around 40 for a high temp) should be on the order of 1-2 days at most, before more bitter, arctic air makes headway into the eastern states.
For example, we should see a moderation in temps for Saturday night through Monday night, before more cold air plunges in for the middle of next week, probably around the 7th or 8th.
more later...
are as follows:
The tendency for slightly more high-lattitude blocking over the pole of late would suggest that the option for a storm is certainly there.
 |
| North Atlantic Oscillation going "negative" is a signal for blocking |
However, most modeling is very inconclusive as to the overall impact.
At the very least, barring a complete miss (least likely option), some accumulating snow and mixed precipitation is a good bet for Thursday into Thursday night, with at least a light/moderate impact on travel.
Scenario #1 would surely be a much bigger deal, producing a major impact to travel on Thursday night. This idea, while less likely, cannot be ruled out just yet.
Cold temperatures would provide for a quick accumulation from a powdery snow in either case.
A quick shot of very cold air will move in behind the departing storm for Friday night into Saturday morning, regardless of the magnitude of the storm's eventual impact. The potential is growing for lows to be in the teens and single digits for Saturday morning's low temps in NYC. A threat of near 0 degree readings for far outlying areas Saturday morning becomes even more likely with an established snow cover in place.
The overall pattern of well-below normal temperatures should continue virtually unabated through the 15th. Any let up in temps below the average (our average is around 40 for a high temp) should be on the order of 1-2 days at most, before more bitter, arctic air makes headway into the eastern states.
For example, we should see a moderation in temps for Saturday night through Monday night, before more cold air plunges in for the middle of next week, probably around the 7th or 8th.
 |
| Intellicast |
more later...
Friday, December 27, 2013
Thursday, December 26, 2013
SHARP COLD SHOT WILL RING IN THE NEW YEAR IN NYC...
1. Isolated rain and snow showers possible under mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning into the afternoon, especially east of the city. Clearing and turning windy by day's end through the overnight hours into friday morning; temps start out near 40, then drop off with lows in the 20s.
 |
| Intellicast Precip Chances: 12am Thursday 12/26/13 through 11pm Thursday 12/26/13 |
2. Friday and Saturday are sunny, with temps starting in the 30s for highs Friday. Even warmer readings move in for Saturday, with highs well into the 40s -- pushing 50.
3. Clouds move in for Sunday with rain chances increasing during the day. Culprit would be a coastal storm, which could last into Monday before clearing out. This will need updating.
4. Significant cold shot moves in behind the departing low on Monday, with widespread below normal temps taking hold for the eastern two thirds of the nation through the end of the week. Ball drop on New Years' Eve should be quite cold, with readings in the low 20s a very good bet!
 |
| Intellicast Temps |
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| NOAA Low Temp Forecast For New Years' Eve |
5. Generally, much colder-than-normal weather looking likely through at least the 10th of January. We'll have to watch for a storm sometime around the 6th to see if the pattern delivers just cold, or cold, plus a significant winter storm.
Thursday, December 19, 2013
RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THEN CHRISTMAS COLD
The strength of the warmth for this weekend will be bolstered by a high pressure cell that is typical of wintertime in the Southeast states. With a broad southwesterly flow, this high will flex its muscle, providing us with record-challenging warmth Sunday. At the same time, the high will keep precip at bay, especially near the coast through Sunday night, leading to a mostly dry weekend in and around NYC and Long Island.
But the skies will remain cloud covered most of the weekend
Still, it will feel like a heat wave compared to the last week or so
Temps will return to normal levels for Christmas.
The best chance of widespread rain is Sunday night, with lingering showers into Monday morning.
A prolonged stretch of cold weather is likely from Christmas to New Years' Day and beyond, as more cold air seeps in from Canada.
Snow threats will have to be monitored after the 25th.
Seasonal Snowfall
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM
Worcester: 18.6"
Allentown: 13.1"
Hartford: 12.4"
Boston: 11.4"
Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"
Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"
Newark Airport: 9.4"
NYC Central Park: 8.6"
NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"
Providence: 7.1"
NYC JFK: 6.9"
Islip, NY: 6.7"
Washington Dulles: 4.7"
Atlantic City: 3.3"
Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"
Washington National: 1.5"
 |
| Accuweather OLD map |
 |
| Accuweather New Map |
But the skies will remain cloud covered most of the weekend
 |
| Intellicast cloud cover |
 |
| Intellicast Precip chances |
Still, it will feel like a heat wave compared to the last week or so
Temps will return to normal levels for Christmas.
 |
| Intellicast Temps |
The best chance of widespread rain is Sunday night, with lingering showers into Monday morning.
A prolonged stretch of cold weather is likely from Christmas to New Years' Day and beyond, as more cold air seeps in from Canada.
Snow threats will have to be monitored after the 25th.
Seasonal Snowfall
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM
Worcester: 18.6"
Allentown: 13.1"
Hartford: 12.4"
Boston: 11.4"
Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"
Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"
Newark Airport: 9.4"
NYC Central Park: 8.6"
NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"
Providence: 7.1"
NYC JFK: 6.9"
Islip, NY: 6.7"
Washington Dulles: 4.7"
Atlantic City: 3.3"
Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"
Washington National: 1.5"
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