SHARP COLD SHOT WILL RING IN THE NEW YEAR IN NYC...

1. Isolated rain and snow showers possible under mostly cloudy skies Thursday morning into the afternoon, especially east of the city. Clearing and turning windy by day's end through the overnight hours into friday morning; temps start out near 40, then drop off with lows in the 20s.

Intellicast Precip Chances: 12am Thursday 12/26/13 through 11pm Thursday 12/26/13

2. Friday and Saturday are sunny, with temps starting in the 30s for highs Friday. Even warmer readings move in for Saturday, with highs well into the 40s -- pushing 50.

3. Clouds move in for Sunday with rain chances increasing during the day. Culprit would be a coastal storm, which could last into Monday before clearing out. This will need updating.

4. Significant cold shot moves in behind the departing low on Monday, with widespread below normal temps taking hold for the eastern two thirds of the nation through the end of the week. Ball drop on New Years' Eve should be quite cold, with readings in the low 20s a very good bet!

Intellicast Temps

NOAA Low Temp Forecast For New Years' Eve

5. Generally, much colder-than-normal weather looking likely through at least the 10th of January. We'll have to watch for a storm sometime around the 6th to see if the pattern delivers just cold, or cold, plus a significant winter storm.

RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE SUNDAY, THEN CHRISTMAS COLD

The strength of the warmth for this weekend will be bolstered by a high pressure cell that is typical of wintertime in the Southeast states. With a broad southwesterly flow, this high will flex its muscle, providing us with record-challenging warmth Sunday. At the same time, the high will keep precip at bay, especially near the coast through Sunday night, leading to a mostly dry weekend in and around NYC and Long Island.

Accuweather OLD map

Accuweather New Map

But the skies will remain cloud covered most of the weekend

Intellicast cloud cover

Intellicast Precip chances

Still, it will feel like a heat wave compared to the last week or so

Temps will return to normal levels for Christmas.

Intellicast Temps

The best chance of widespread rain is Sunday night, with lingering showers into Monday morning.

A prolonged stretch of cold weather is likely from Christmas to New Years' Day and beyond, as more cold air seeps in from Canada.

Snow threats will have to be monitored after the 25th.

Seasonal Snowfall
2013-14 Winter
As of 12/19/2013 / 4:30 PM

Worcester: 18.6"
Allentown: 13.1"
Hartford: 12.4"
Boston: 11.4"
Philadelphia Intl. Airport: 11.2"
Bridgeport / Sikorsky: 10.8"
Newark Airport: 9.4"
NYC Central Park: 8.6"
NYC LaGuardia: 7.8"
Providence: 7.1"
NYC JFK: 6.9"
Islip, NY: 6.7"
Washington Dulles: 4.7"
Atlantic City: 3.3"
Baltimore (BWI): 2.9"
Washington National: 1.5" 

UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM WILL BE WET, NOT WHITE...

1. Snow develops tomorrow morning between 6-9AM and continues for much of the day. A general 2-4” is likely before the snow dissipates between 4-6pm. Highs will hover near 30 under cloudy skies. Clearing late. Rain should mix with snow in south shore communities, which will hold down accumulations there.

 

2. Fair and dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temps start to become much warmer by weeks end.

 

Intellicast

3. Mild, but wet weekend looking likely this weekend. Moist southerly flow combined with small-scale storm systems will trigger rain starting Friday, but particularly Saturday. Best weekend day is Sunday, with clearing skies and temps returning to near normal levels.

Accuweather.com

4.  Christmas Day temps look cold, but not overpoweringly so for this time of year.  No sign of any rain/snow chances yet in the long term beyond this weekend. 

VIDEO: INLAND SNOWSTORM ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A MIXED BAG IN NYC

Watch Now

PRELIMINARY WINTER STORM IDEA FOR SATURDAY

The question that still needs to be ironed out for the upcoming weekend storm are as follows:
a). How strong will the storm be?  A stronger storm would tend to drive warmer air up the coastal plain and make for more of a mixed precip event for the city and coast. However, a weaker storm would actually mean MORE SNOW for the coast; in this scenario, warm air would not get here in time to change the precip over to a mix. And with cold air in place, it would be able to hold on for the duration of the storm.

Ironically, the opposite effect would take place further away from the coast. Well inland, the strong storm option would crush the Hudson Valley and points to the north, as copious amounts of moisture would be thrown up into the higher elevations, with very little changeover to plain rain. However, a weaker storm would be robbed of moisture, thus only giving the region to the north of the coast a light to moderate storm...

Having fun yet...?

More later

UPDATED SNOWFALL IDEA FOR 12/10 STORM...

A WINTRY WEEK OF WEATHER IN THE MAKING...

An active, cold wintry pattern has established itself over the norther tier of states. As a result, the region is primed for bouts of light to perhaps moderate snowfalls as well as significant cold, even by December standards.

Current Snow Cover

On Tuesday,  a storm system will brush the region with a light snowfall, particularly for the city band coast. Timing looks to be in the afternoon.

My thinking...Not an official forecast...

By late week, attention will shift toward how long and how strong a bitterly cold air mass will affect the region.

Intellicast

 Temps will likely stay below freezing during the day beginning on Thursday and into Friday.

The weekend is problematic. There is some concern for potentially extreme cold by the weekend, but more than the usual amount of uncertainty exists.

Another shot at snowfall will come late this weekend and early next week, as a storm makes a move out of the southern plains states towards the east coast.

Frequent updates will be necessary this week...