CHILLY WEATHER STILL LURKS AS WE HEAD INTO APRIL

1. Eastern winter storm left most of the area on Monday with nary a flake.  The worst of the snow was confined to coastal Jersey. The map from this past Saturday held serve for the most part.

2. Quiet week overall, but windy conditions develop Thursday. Temps in the upper 40s, with 30s at night. Showers are likely Thursday morning and afternoon, with clouds building late Wednesday and lasting through much of Thursday.

3. Nice Easter weekend, but then things start to get unsettled for late Sunday into Monday, as a cold front presses in. Yankees' and Mets' openers look good for now, as rain moves through early enough to not cause problems. Temps near 50 all weekend, with falling temps Monday afternoon, as a shot of chill whips in from the north.

WPC shows front crossing the region Monday morning

Intellicast

4. A return to chilly weather arrives Tuesday, with a possible storm mid-week. Temps below normal, with highs staying in the 40s.

Accu-weather

Accu-weather

MONDAY STORM SNAPSHOT

Here's the latest idea, which is a good blend the model guidance as well as Accuweather/Weatherbell.

If the forecast holds, the NYC metro would get a couple of inches at most, but the danger of the heavier precip sneaking in is making this a very low confidence situation; a deviation of 50-75 miles north of the placement of the main low pressure would double these amounts across the board in a hurry!

If anything drastic changes with respect to the "high impact" zone coming north, an update will be needed tomorrow night.

By the way, the cold will hold through the week, as the pattern remains locked in to a cold regime.

TWC temps for Tuesday and Wednesday struggle to reach 50; the normal high for this time of year is in the low to mid 50s.

Anyone hoping for spring to show up any time within the next week or so will be looking like an April fool...

ON THE FRINGE (FOR NOW) OF AN EARLY SPRING WINTER STORM

Even with the blizzard back in February, the tristate area has been on the periphery of storms; in other words, they would be either just to our south, or, as in the case of the February blizzard, too far to our east. Recall those places in eastern Long Island and Eastern Connecticut were an outlier as far as their astronomical totals, but most of the rest of the region had uniform snow totals of around 6-10 inches on average.

Sunday night and Monday, the song remains the same.

Once again, the question will become how far north the storm can get. Introducing heavier rates of precipitation will ultimately lead to a heavy wet snowstorm for most of the region, but especially in the higher terrain. Lighter rates with the storm would create a nuisance type situation for most of the NYC metro; this is mainly because of the time of year when ground temps are marginal at best to support snow.

So without further ado, here are the two scenarios! The bulk of the storm would be Monday.

Another update will come tomorrow.

SCENARIO #1: created by Accu-weather

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WATCHING FOR A CROSS-COUNTRY STORM EARLY NEXT WEEK

The overview which handled the storm yesterday was poor, as the snow changed over later than expected, making for widespread accumulations of up to five inches in some places Monday evening. Also, the winds never seemed to ramp up once the storm left town late Tuesday afternoon.

Snow showers and flurries should develop tomorrow night into Thursday morning, with light accumulations possible, especially near the coast (east of NYC).

ACCU-weather

A chilly, but fairly tranquil end of the week/weekend looks to be on tap.

However, a major storm will develop and sweep across the country at the same time. Any potential affects in our area would be around Monday, but how far north the storm comes remains in question. The potential is certainly there for a heavy precip/strong wind producer early next week, so updates will be needed.

As noted here since late February, the blocking pattern we're seeing is not breaking down; it will lead to continued chilly weather through at least the end of the month, along with additional coastal storms.

Bittersweet Bust

there's no denying it; i love snow. But also there's no denying the fact that there will be a lot of water cooler bashing of the weatherpeople tomorrow, and with good reason. Nearly 4 inches of snow has piled up in the Park, with places in coastal Northeast New Jersey getting close to 6 inches. The title of the post says it all; it's very rare when this blog is completely off the mark, but this is one of those occasions for NYC metro and Nassau counties.

So what do we take from this? It's only the second time since 2000 when snow accumulated in the park after March 15th TWICE. However, with the pattern being locked in for the foreseeable future, i cannot see why, at this juncture, many places won't end up with at least a trace of snow twice more before April first.

The first opportunity comes wednesday night into thursday, as the strong northwesterly flow will usher in a few small disturbances that can squeeze out a shot at some light snow on Wednesday night. '

A major storm will develop over the western states and chug eastward; the question will be how far north will it come Sunday into Monday. This looks like another slow-moving, pain-in-the-neck storm, and if we get caught in it,  we have the necessary cold air to work with to produce something significant.

I cannot for the life of me ever seeing this much of a signal towards cold being touted by CPC. it's very rare to see them this bullish on the chill in the 6-10 day period, but my guess is that, because of the enormous blocking pattern, a slow transition from winter to some semblance of spring, is all we can reasonably hope for going forward into April.

SPRING ARRIVES IN NAME ONLY THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS

1. Talk of pre-St. Patrick's day precip is overdone, as only VERY light rain/snow could fall on the big parade during the day; higher chances are over southern NYC and the coast, but amounts will be pesky. Highs near 40. Light winds during the day, but becoming a bit breezy at night tomorrow night, with temps droping into the low 30s.

NOAA products show about a tenth of an inch of liquid falling tomorrow. 

2. Sunday into Monday morning are dry, than a soaking rainfall will encompass the region. Temps quite raw and chilly for this time of year Monday night into Tuesday, which is when the bulk of the rain will fall. Continued highs near 40 at best through the period.

WPC.gov shows potential for 1-2 inches of rain Monday night/Tuesda

3. Higher elevations north and west of NYC stand the best shot at mixed precip through the entire storm for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

Accu-weather

4. Potential is high for a period of very strong winds to develop Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning; highest gusts could reach 50mph near the coast and in higher elevations.

5. Dry Wednesday-Friday, but temps will struggle to reach the mid-40s through the end of next week. Pattern remains bottled up and blocky, which will mean the persistent pattern of cold and storminess will continue until it breaks down.

A COLD ST PATRICKS DAY; WINTERS' GRIP WILL BE SLOW TO FADE AWAY

First though, while the rain will build in Monday night, the steadiest and heaviest rains will come during Tuesday, as the timing of the system heading towards us is a bit slower than originally thought.

A risk of an afternoon shower will still be possible on Wednesday, as very cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere combines with daytime heating; this set-up is common in late winter and early spring and typically poses the greatest risk of a shower away from the coastal sections and with higher elevations.

Thereafter, cold, dry weather takes charge once again, as the false spring of the last few days is wiped out.

Intellicast

The next chance for a significant storm system comes early the week of the 17th (the time to watch would be Monday through Wednesday). If it pans out to its fullest potential, parts or all of the region could see a significant winter storm right around the time of the Vernal Equinox.

Euro model shows a strong signal for an east coast storm around 3/20

In short, winter is not done for at least another week to ten days, and one more storm could make it so that March has a decent chance to be our snowiest month for the entire winter of 2012-13.