HOPING FOR RAIN THIS WEEK? THE TREND IS NOT YOUR FRIEND...

 Weather models struggled the last few days with the placement of steady, heavy rain for the upcoming week. What looked like a decent pattern for rain in our area is now evolving into one where the bulk of much-needed precipitation stays mainly offshore.

Clouds come in late tonight and winds turn onshore, making it a cool week overall. 

National Weather Service-Upton, New York

We'll remain basically dry Monday, but then a few showers are possible area-wide on Tuesday. By Wednesday, a coastal storm will pass offshore, with areas over eastern Long Island and Connecticut seeing the best chance of a soaking rain. 

NYC and points north and west get fringe effects.

Tropical Tidbits

Weather Prediction Center/NOAA

The expected amounts of rain for tonight through next Saturday has dwindled on the National Weather Service's graphical forecasts. 

U.S. Drought Monitor

Meanwhile, the short-term drought should continue. 

After Wednesday, our next best chance of rain looks to arrive late in the weekend; expect humidity levels to come back up starting Thursday, but fair skies should largely prevail through Sunday of next weekend.  

TURNING COOLER NEXT WEEK, BUT DRY

 

We'll be dealing with hot temps through the weekend with slight fluctuations in heat and humidity through Monday. By Tuesday, a more important change in the weather pattern will lead to more reasonable temps in the mid-80s for mid-week next week. The area is abnormally dry and drought conditions are developing locally and becoming moderate to severe in parts of Eastern New England. 

EARLY AUGUST OUTLOOK

 

HEAT RELAXES EARLY WEEK

Record heat likely on Sunday as the heat wave reaches its peak. We'll see temps closer to normal for this time of year after Monday, but it'll still be warm for the balance of the week with highs generally in the mid-to-upper 80s. A severe weather threat exists for Monday as the worst of the heat is pushed away; look for the threat of damaging winds and heavy rain for Monday afternoon. A cold front will push through on Thursday with more storms possible. Next weekend looks okay for now, with major heat shifting to the west coast of the U.S for next weekend. 

HOT WEATHER IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND

 

CLASSIC MID-JULY WEATHER AHEAD

 

It looks very warm and dry through much of next week, with only scattered storms around from time to time.  The northern branch of the jet stream wants to finally head further north, making it more likely we'll see at-or-above normal temps (but not terribly hot). 

HEAT KEPT AT BAY THROUGH MID-JULY