STRONG LATE SPRING/EARLY SUMMER STORM WILL INDUCE MORE FLOODING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT

 

After a windy, but dry day on Wednesday, a potent coastal storm will develop and track towards the area on Thursday with more heavy rain and isolated thunderstorms. The region will be on the northern side of the storm, which will limit severe weather chances aside from the flooding.

Accuweather

In the zone in red, a significant wind damage/tornado threat exists for Thursday. If the forecasted path of the low pressure holds firm, the immediate tri state area will only experience heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms. However, an additional update may be needed if the severe weather threat area gets bumped north tomorrow afternoon. 

 

Strong winds will mount on the coast, with frequent gusts to 40mph possible in the afternoon and evening. 

Temps will be miserable for this time of year as well, with readings struggling to get to the mid-60s.

 

The storm will tend to linger a bit into Friday with residual scattered showers and times of cloudiness

 

the weekend still looks warm and dry.

A NEW WEEK, WITH MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOMING

1. Heavy rain threat will begin anew Monday into Tuesday, as a slow moving warm front pushes through the region. A general 1-2 inches of rain area-wide is likely, with some higher amounts possible in isolated locations.  Best opportunity for heavy rain will be Monday afternoon into Monday evening, with only light to moderate rain falling during early Monday morning through early afternoon.

Accuweather

2. Rain tapers off overnight Monday into Tuesday, but the threat of showers will increase for Tuesday into Tuesday night with the passage of a cold front.

3. A break comes for Wednesday, with dry conditions. Another significant rainfall is possible on Thursday, with the potential for another 1-2 inches of rainfall. This will need updating.

Intellicast WInds

4. Friday through the weekend looks decent for now, but no summer-like warmth is on the horizon just yet, as the overall pattern will keep the searing heat to our south and west over the southern plains states.

Intellicast Temps

CPC 6-10 day temps

CPC 6-10 day precipitation 

VIDEO: TROPICAL STORM ANDREA WILL DUMP HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING

RISK OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS: LOW


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HEAVY RAIN THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

A storm system developing in the Gulf of Mexico may combine with an oncoming mid-west system to produce a potentially heavy rainfall for Friday through Saturday afternoon...

At the very least, conditions will become humid by Thursday, as the winds turn to the south and begin to pump in a moist, tropical air mass...


In spite of the threat of several inches of rain in the worst case scenario (number 2), and in spite of what may become a late week media hype-fest, most of the region can still manage to handle upwards of three inches of rain without any major problems.

The most susceptible areas would be any region near streams and creeks, as well as typical urban/poor drainage flooding on the highways.

The best chance of seeing any flooding would be for Northeast New Jersey, where the soil has taken on a lot of water over the past month in that particular area. Upwards of 2.5 inches would be enough to cause widespread flash flooding

more later...

SUNDAY'S STORMS WILL HERALD IN A COOLER WEEK NEXT WEEK

The ingredients for storms to become severe on Sunday was alluded to earlier this past week

NOAA's official outlook for this Sunday is very close to the original idea, but does not include the coastal sections as of yet for the strongest storms

Nevertheless, widespread storms will make their way through the region LATE Sunday afternoon and night, and linger into much of Monday afternoon, as the front which will cool us down slows to a crawl.

A flash flooding threat will exist for western Sections of NYC and points to the north. To the east across Long Island, lesser rainfall amounts will take place through Monday night, but the idea of at least an inch of precip area-wide is a good bet.

Once we get past Monday, things look pretty dry. Temps will return to normal; the indication is that this will remain so through a good part of the week, with the heat staying well to our south.

Intellicast

WPC Forecasted High Temps for June 7

VIDEO FROM YESTERDAY...THIS TIME IT WORKS

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SUDDENLY IT'S SUMMER!

The cool and windy weather of the Memorial Day weekend will be a faint memory this coming week, as the first sustained summer-like weather pattern of the season takes shape this week in ernest.

Intellicast

The chances for rain will be limited this week. The first offering at some scattered showers will be late tuesday night into Wednesday, with only isolated chances for Thursday through Saturday. A shot at a widespread severe weather episode with afternoon thunderstorms will arrive around Sunday afternoon; this will need to be watched.