HEAVY RAIN FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...JOAQUIN'S IMPACT STILL UNKNOWN

6:10am

EXCESSIVE RAINS BECOMING LIKELY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE WEEKEND

SYNOPSIS: A highly complex pattern will result in continued unsettled weather well before the brunt of Joaquin makes its closest approach on Sunday and Monday; the overall impact of Joaquin to the region is highly uncertain and updates will be needed.

current sea-surface temperatures

The key to the forecast late in the weekend lies with the interaction between the tropical system (Joaquin) and the incoming strong low pressure trough from the Midwest. Regardless, the overall set-up from now through the weekend will lead to an extended period of coastal flooding, beach erosion and heavy rain. 

Over the last few cycles of model runs, projected amounts of rainfall have markedly increased for the period, not including what has already fallen on Wednesday.  All told, if the current trends continue, moderate drought which ensued over the summer months would be virtually wiped out with this week's rains alone;  too much rain could prove overwhelming for some rivers and streams.

Northeast winds which have already developed will continue through the weekend, regardless of the storm's eventual path.  Wind speeds could be able to mount to over 50mph at the coast, particularly late in the weekend. This prolonged northeasterly fetch will constantly push water towards our shorelines for many days.

THE DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:

Wednesday night/Thursday:  periods of rain.

Thursday night/Friday: Classic set-up for heavy rain begins with frontal boundary draping itself over the region. Moderate to heavy rain at times, starting in eastern areas, then coming westward and overspreading the region.  Amounts during this time frame will range from 1-3 inches, with locally excessive amounts due to the tropical supply of moisture.

Friday night through Sunday: Increasing winds and periods of rain, with rain heavy at times. Additional rainfall of 1-2 inches will be possible.

Sunday/Monday: Worst case scenario would be that the brunt of  Joaquin hits all or part of the area with heavy to excessive rains, damaging winds and tidal flooding, but this is highly uncertain at this time.

Temps remain in the 60s through the forecast period.

stay tuned.....

ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT A SULTRY SEPTEMBER

1. Increasing clouds tonight with drizzle developing late. Warm on Monday. Some light rain should move in by late day into the evening with areas west of the Hudson seeing it first. Spotty light rain continues through Monday night into early Tuesday.

2. By Tuesday, temps surge into the 70s once again. At  night, a cold front with ample tropical moisture moves through with moderate to heavy rains and a stray thunderstorm. Front slows down as it works its way through, meaning showers will still be around through most of Wednesday morning before ending. Around an inch of rain is likely with this feature.

3.  Dry for late week, but breezy and much cooler temps beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.

4. Meanwhile,  a new area of low pressure will strengthen over the mid-Atlantic states late in the week. Complex series of events including some influence from the tropics yet again, could result in a soaking nor'easter for the region for much of Saturday and Saturday night. Coastal flooding, heavy rains and strong winds are the main threats. Astronomical tide will have peaked, which might mitigate the extent of the coastal flooding. Bears close watch.

5. Storm may linger for Sunday and Monday, but with more showery rains and some breaks in the clouds. For now, expect damp and dreary weather during this time frame, with slow improvements by Tuesday.

VIDEO: FALL BEGINS MILD AND DRY

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SUMMER HEAT IN RETREAT NEXT WEEK...

1. Mid-summer like heat will remain over the region through Sunday, with fair skies. Temps so far have run well-above normal throughout the month; in many locations, monthly mean temps for September could be in the top five when all is said and done.

2. Higher humidity works into the region for the weekend. A weak cold front will spark isolated showers for interior sections Saturday night, but most places will be dry.

3. Onshore flow develops for Monday; large high pressure building over the northeast will usher in cooler air and plenty of clouds.

4. Showers work their way towards the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall pattern would support a steady rain at some point during the mid-week period; however, there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to the evolution of the track of any organized coastal storm. Bears watching.

5. Skies should clear late week; temps should rebound to above-normal levels once again by next weekend.

VIDEO: TWO SHOTS AT MUCH NEEDED RAIN

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WATCHING FOR LATE-WEEK RAIN CHANCES

1. Much of the week will be very warm to hot, with daily high temps easily surpassing the normal values (for this time of the year) by 5-10 degrees each day. Conditions will be dry through Thursday; humidity values will be uncomfortable, but not oppressive Monday and Tuesday. The worst day for combined heat and humidity should occur on Wednesday, when dew points climb into the 70s.

2. By late Thursday into Friday, a front will approach from the west and slow down near the area. Weak disturbances in the atmosphere should work in tandem with the warm, humid air mass in place to generate one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Thursday night and into part of Friday. Any rain would help alleviate the short-term drought that has developed, especially over Long Island and Connecticut, where conditions are driest.

3. Conditions should improve for the upcoming weekend with temps remaining above normal. More warm, dry weather should persist for mid-to-late month, solidifying the widely held idea that September would be a very mild month across the east and south.