ACTIVE WEEK OF WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT A SULTRY SEPTEMBER

1. Increasing clouds tonight with drizzle developing late. Warm on Monday. Some light rain should move in by late day into the evening with areas west of the Hudson seeing it first. Spotty light rain continues through Monday night into early Tuesday.

2. By Tuesday, temps surge into the 70s once again. At  night, a cold front with ample tropical moisture moves through with moderate to heavy rains and a stray thunderstorm. Front slows down as it works its way through, meaning showers will still be around through most of Wednesday morning before ending. Around an inch of rain is likely with this feature.

3.  Dry for late week, but breezy and much cooler temps beginning on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend.

4. Meanwhile,  a new area of low pressure will strengthen over the mid-Atlantic states late in the week. Complex series of events including some influence from the tropics yet again, could result in a soaking nor'easter for the region for much of Saturday and Saturday night. Coastal flooding, heavy rains and strong winds are the main threats. Astronomical tide will have peaked, which might mitigate the extent of the coastal flooding. Bears close watch.

5. Storm may linger for Sunday and Monday, but with more showery rains and some breaks in the clouds. For now, expect damp and dreary weather during this time frame, with slow improvements by Tuesday.

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SUMMER HEAT IN RETREAT NEXT WEEK...

1. Mid-summer like heat will remain over the region through Sunday, with fair skies. Temps so far have run well-above normal throughout the month; in many locations, monthly mean temps for September could be in the top five when all is said and done.

2. Higher humidity works into the region for the weekend. A weak cold front will spark isolated showers for interior sections Saturday night, but most places will be dry.

3. Onshore flow develops for Monday; large high pressure building over the northeast will usher in cooler air and plenty of clouds.

4. Showers work their way towards the region for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall pattern would support a steady rain at some point during the mid-week period; however, there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to the evolution of the track of any organized coastal storm. Bears watching.

5. Skies should clear late week; temps should rebound to above-normal levels once again by next weekend.

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WATCHING FOR LATE-WEEK RAIN CHANCES

1. Much of the week will be very warm to hot, with daily high temps easily surpassing the normal values (for this time of the year) by 5-10 degrees each day. Conditions will be dry through Thursday; humidity values will be uncomfortable, but not oppressive Monday and Tuesday. The worst day for combined heat and humidity should occur on Wednesday, when dew points climb into the 70s.

2. By late Thursday into Friday, a front will approach from the west and slow down near the area. Weak disturbances in the atmosphere should work in tandem with the warm, humid air mass in place to generate one or two rounds of showers and thunderstorms, particularly on Thursday night and into part of Friday. Any rain would help alleviate the short-term drought that has developed, especially over Long Island and Connecticut, where conditions are driest.

3. Conditions should improve for the upcoming weekend with temps remaining above normal. More warm, dry weather should persist for mid-to-late month, solidifying the widely held idea that September would be a very mild month across the east and south.

SEPTEMBER SIZZLE

A very warm pattern for this time of year will dominate our weather through at least the first 10 days of the month. The alignment of the jet stream will stay unchanged; this will lead to well-above normal temps and very low chances for rain.

Weatherspark: Average daily high temps in September for New York

Some isolated showers and storms could pop up on Thursday and again on Friday (both in the afternoon hours) but most places will remain dry though at least Sunday and probably beyond.

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Easterly winds will take hold for weekend beginning on Friday, meaning slightly cooler and less humid conditions. However, temps will stay in the mid to upper 80s, which is some 5-8 degrees above normal.

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