Wednesday, November 5, 2014
Sunday, November 2, 2014
NOVEMBER WILL BE COLD AND STORMY ACROSS THE REGION
1. Weekend nor'easter was the second straight storm to over-perform when compared to the forecast. Rain lasted the entire day for NYC and points east, with amounts from one half to one inch of rain.
2. Mainly dry through Wednesday, but there could be widely scattered showers Tuesday night as a warm front moves through. Most if not all of Election Day is dry. Temps start to creep back up after Monday (tomorrow).
3. Another coastal storm for the end of the week, with rain and wind likely thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Clearing for the weekend, with cooler temps taking hold. Windy on Friday night and Saturday. Look for another coastal storm and cold shot sometime during the week of the 9th.
4. In general, an active pattern of storms should combine with slightly colder-than-normal monthly temps through much of November, setting the stage for another rough winter in NYC.
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| NOAA Precip estimate shows .50-1.00 fell on Long Island for 11/1 |
2. Mainly dry through Wednesday, but there could be widely scattered showers Tuesday night as a warm front moves through. Most if not all of Election Day is dry. Temps start to creep back up after Monday (tomorrow).
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| Accuweather.com |
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| www.PIX11.com/weather |
3. Another coastal storm for the end of the week, with rain and wind likely thursday afternoon into Friday morning. Clearing for the weekend, with cooler temps taking hold. Windy on Friday night and Saturday. Look for another coastal storm and cold shot sometime during the week of the 9th.
4. In general, an active pattern of storms should combine with slightly colder-than-normal monthly temps through much of November, setting the stage for another rough winter in NYC.
Thursday, October 30, 2014
Monday, October 27, 2014
MAJOR COLD “SPELL” LOOMS FOR HALLOWEEN WEEKEND…
1. After a gorgeous Tuesday, temps begin to tumble on Wednesday and Thursday. Threat of rain in the form of showers Wednesday during the day will be minimal; areas to the west and north of NYC will stand the best chances.
2. Calm Thursday and Friday. All of Halloween will be sunny and cool, but clouds rapidly lower and thicken toward evening.
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| Intellicast |
3. Our first intrusion of bona fide arctic air will hit the region beginning late Friday night and it will last through the weekend. Temps will struggle to get out of the 40s for daytime highs Saturday and again Sunday, with wind-chill values in the upper 30s to low 40s. Very windy Saturday.
4. Low confidence forecast remains for sensible weather this weekend. Complex pattern evolves as the arctic air plunges southward. A storm will develop to our south and track northeastward, with both an initial shot of precip overnight Friday night and another shot at precip on Saturday night. The potential is there for accumulating snow in the interior of CT and the Lower Hudson Valley; in a worst case, accumulations could make it down to the coast, as we saw back in late October 2011 and again with the post-Sandy storm in 2012.
More later…
Saturday, October 25, 2014
PREPARE FOR ANOTHER SNOWY WINTER ACROSS THE AREA
THIS WINTER:
If the consensus holds for a snowier-than-normal winter, it would be the 6th winter out of the last 7 with above normal snowfall...and that has not happened since the 1880s.
This year, many of the same factors that contributed to our snowy pattern last year are yet again in place. A border-line El Niño, a favorable overall water temperature profile in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans and above normal October snow cover in Eurasia should sew the seeds for another cold, snowy winter, with amounts compared to seasonal averages well-above normal area-wide, particularly towards the coast.
One would think (and some would hope) that the odds of beating last year's robust snowfall totals would be low.
But the last time NYC saw back-to-back 50 plus inch seasonal snowfalls was not long ago -- 2009-10 and 2010-11. Indeed, with few exceptions, the late 1990s through 2013 will -- by far and away -- be remembered for being one of the snowiest periods of weather around these parts since the 1940s!
NY NJ PA Winter Forecast
Weatherbell Winter Forecast
NOAA Winter Forecast
Weather Channel/WSI Winter Outlook
Accuweather Winter Outlook
WINTER 2013-2014:
Last winter saw heavy snows blanket the area in January and February. NYC recorded 57.3 inches for the season, with many locales totaling similar results.
Things got started on December 14-15, when our first coastal storm brought half snow/half rain to the coast, while dumping heavy snow inland.
The first snowstorm with little to no rain occurred shortly after the New Year, with blizzard conditions, 8-12" of new snow, and bone-numbing cold which followed directly in behind the storm.
A second potent winter storm came around Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with similar accumulations, but less wind. February had a close call early on, but then another winter storm came calling February 13-14, with a blinding snowfall that snarled the morning rush. In the evening, snow changed to a drenching rain for the coast, while areas to our north remained with frozen precip.
Toward the end, the interesting part of winter was what DIDN'T happen; three storms missed the area to the south in the month of March, sparing the area the chance of smashing all-time seasonal snowfall records.
Bottom Line: In the very long term, subtle, but cyclical shifts in the overall hemispheric and water temperature pattern over the next several years may well yet spell the decline of prolific snowy seasons like we've had. However, in the short run, while maybe not as cold as last year, we should expect to see a season which once again will be capable of producing very disruptive wintry events similar to those we've grown accustomed to, and this is in line with the historical trends of the last 15-20 years.
If the consensus holds for a snowier-than-normal winter, it would be the 6th winter out of the last 7 with above normal snowfall...and that has not happened since the 1880s.
 |
| Accuweather.com |
This year, many of the same factors that contributed to our snowy pattern last year are yet again in place. A border-line El Niño, a favorable overall water temperature profile in the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans and above normal October snow cover in Eurasia should sew the seeds for another cold, snowy winter, with amounts compared to seasonal averages well-above normal area-wide, particularly towards the coast.
One would think (and some would hope) that the odds of beating last year's robust snowfall totals would be low.
But the last time NYC saw back-to-back 50 plus inch seasonal snowfalls was not long ago -- 2009-10 and 2010-11. Indeed, with few exceptions, the late 1990s through 2013 will -- by far and away -- be remembered for being one of the snowiest periods of weather around these parts since the 1940s!
 |
| 2013-14 Winter Stats: Courtesy of Weather works inc. |
NY NJ PA Winter Forecast
Weatherbell Winter Forecast
NOAA Winter Forecast
Weather Channel/WSI Winter Outlook
Accuweather Winter Outlook
WINTER 2013-2014:
Last winter saw heavy snows blanket the area in January and February. NYC recorded 57.3 inches for the season, with many locales totaling similar results.
Things got started on December 14-15, when our first coastal storm brought half snow/half rain to the coast, while dumping heavy snow inland.
The first snowstorm with little to no rain occurred shortly after the New Year, with blizzard conditions, 8-12" of new snow, and bone-numbing cold which followed directly in behind the storm.
A second potent winter storm came around Martin Luther King Jr. Day, with similar accumulations, but less wind. February had a close call early on, but then another winter storm came calling February 13-14, with a blinding snowfall that snarled the morning rush. In the evening, snow changed to a drenching rain for the coast, while areas to our north remained with frozen precip.
Toward the end, the interesting part of winter was what DIDN'T happen; three storms missed the area to the south in the month of March, sparing the area the chance of smashing all-time seasonal snowfall records.
Bottom Line: In the very long term, subtle, but cyclical shifts in the overall hemispheric and water temperature pattern over the next several years may well yet spell the decline of prolific snowy seasons like we've had. However, in the short run, while maybe not as cold as last year, we should expect to see a season which once again will be capable of producing very disruptive wintry events similar to those we've grown accustomed to, and this is in line with the historical trends of the last 15-20 years.
Monday, October 20, 2014
SLOW-MOVING NOR'EASTER WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...
1. Tuesday: Light rain will affect eastern Long Island as well as the northern suburbs of NYC during the overnight hours. Less rain overnight for the NYC metro area. Showers during the day will be scattered in nature; breaks of sun could develop at times, with temps in the 60s.
2. As the storm takes shape to our south, light rain will develop from southwest to northeast Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. A steady, moderate rainfall takes shape for Wednesday afternoon and night area-wide, with a few thunderstorms possible.
3. By Thursday, the rainfall once again becomes scattered, with the more organized area of rainfall vacating the region by mid morning. Residual showers could threaten any time from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, but we should dry out completely for late friday through the weekend.
2. As the storm takes shape to our south, light rain will develop from southwest to northeast Tuesday night and continue through Wednesday. A steady, moderate rainfall takes shape for Wednesday afternoon and night area-wide, with a few thunderstorms possible.
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| Accuweather.com |
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| intellicast.com |
3. By Thursday, the rainfall once again becomes scattered, with the more organized area of rainfall vacating the region by mid morning. Residual showers could threaten any time from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning, but we should dry out completely for late friday through the weekend.
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