LATE SUMMER TEMP SURGE BEGINS WITH STORMS....

Overall,  the next 72 hours will feature very warm temps for this time of year, with uncomfortable humidity values.

NYC dew point history from 4pm 8/28 to 8am 8/31. 

The very high humidity values combined with small disturbances rolling through our region will lead to widespread showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight. Any shower or storm that does move over the region will produce very heavy rain. By late afternoon, storms should be ongoing north and west of NYC, then they will spread south and east through the remainder of the evening and overnight before ending late tonight.

For tomorrow, more showers and thunderstorms will develop for the afternoon and evening, but they will be a little less widespread than today's storms.

Accuweather.com

Afternoon and evening storms will try to develop once again for Tuesday, but then the winds turn more northerly on Wednesday, which will lower the humidity values and our rain chances through at least Saturday morning.

Intellicast.com

Weatherspark.com. Average September highs and lows for select dates in NYC

VIDEO: A WARM SEPTEMBER IN THE MAKING

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PRE-LABOR DAY WARM-UP

1. Winds which have been from out of east these last few days switch gears and start to turn southerly. This wind shift will set the stage for warm, humid weather for both Tuesday and Wednesday.  Best shot at the elusive 90 degree mark will be Wednesday for NYC north and west, with mid-and-upper 80s elsewhere.

Intellicast.com

2. Scattered strong storms Wednesday night area-wide will help usher in cooler weather for late week. Temps return to near normal levels through Labor Day weekend.

3. Some opportunity for rain in the form of showers and thunderstorms does exist for the weekend, with the best chance at anything significant coming Saturday night into Sunday. Timing on any rain over the weekend is suspect as models disagree on the actual details. Update will be needed.

4. Cristobal will only deliver rough surf to the area beaches Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

SEPTEMBER-LIKE BLOCKING MEANS HEAT CAN'T COME KNOCKING...

The overall pattern the next 7-10 days will be characterized by times of clouds during the day,  little in the way of rainfall, and a cool, easterly flow off the Atlantic Ocean. All of the factors that will dominate our weather are largely in response to a blocking pattern which will remain stagnant over the next week, and possibly beyond.

Intellicast.com Temps

Intellicast.com cloud coverage

Chances for rain have been dwindling in the various forecasts this week. The only real shot at any appreciable rainfall looks to arrive no sooner than Thursday during the day. However, not all areas will receive rain; expect showers, but in the scattered variety on Thursday before we return to dry conditions for the weekend.

VIDEO: THIS WEEKS' WEATHER AND ISLIP RAINS

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EXTREME RAINFALL BATTERS CENTRAL LONG ISLAND ON AUGUST 13, 2014

NOAA

The set up for heavy rain that was  highly touted for the mid-week period this week far exceeded expectations, particularly across Long Island. The heaviest of the rains for the metro area in general were from about  5-7am, and in many locales, topped four inches plus in a single hours time. The extent of the very extreme totals of between 6-14 inches occurred in a very narrow, but prolific band of rains that persisted over the same areas.


An explanation as to what led to the historic rains can be found here.

Accuweather--Areas in white are 10"+....
areas in red are 5"+

MID WEEK SUMMER SOAKER

1. Dry through Monday and much of Tuesday. Humidity values will be noticeably higher Monday and into Tuesday. Clouds begin to build in late Monday night. A few isolated showers possible Tuesday morning.

2. Widespread, soaking rainfall begins Tuesday evening (north and west of NYC) and late evening (NYC and points east). Rain should last into the first half of Wednesday before clearing. Amounts will generally be around an inch, but amounts to 2 inches could occur locally. Lack of rainfall recently means that only urban/road flooding is the main concern .

3. Clearing out Wednesday night, with dry conditions taking hold for the rest of the week. Another gem of a summer weekend looks likely.

Intellicast.com

4. No sign of any excessive heat in the long term. Persistent pattern all summer long remains in the long range guidance