MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW TOTALS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

A powerful and far-reaching winter storm will track towards our region, bringing with it yet another significant snowfall accumulation on Thursday. This storm will make travel very dangerous region-wide;  both the morning and the evening rush hours on Thursday will be severely impacted by this intense storm. The heavy nature of the snowfall will create some power outages because it will fall onto existing snow cover on trees and branches.

TIMING: Snow will develop between 2-4am Thursday morning and continue in ernest until midday or so before letting up somewhat during the day.

Accuweather.com

 The snow will come down very heavy at times during the morning commute, with hourly snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour at times through about 11am.  Accumulations around midday area-wide should range from 4-6 inches. 

Image courtesy of NOAA

Then, after a brief respite, another round of moderate to heavy snow will break out and cross the region from west to east from Thursday afternoon through Thursday night before completely ending during the overnight Friday morning. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain may try to work in for a  brief time, especially near the southern and eastern shores during the afternoon on Thursday, before changing back to all snow for Thursday afternoon and night.

AMOUNTS: A widespread significant accumulation of snowfall is likely. Most areas will see a storm total of 6 inches or greater by the time the storm ends early Friday morning. Amounts will exceed a foot north and west of NYC in a widespread fashion. Some excessive totals of more than 12 inches are possible over the mid-Hudson Valley

WINDS: Winds will be highest along the coast. Wind speeds could ramp up to 30mph during Thursday afternoon. This wind speed would be short of “blizzard” criteria, but it could exacerbate the threat to power lines.

COASTAL FLOODING: There is a threat for minor coastal flooding along the south shore of Long Island as well as Western Long Island Sound.

Another update tomorrow night

Stay tuned

WINTER STORM SCENARIOS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

more coming later today or Tuesday...

LATE WEEKEND STORM SHOULD DELIVER ONLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE AREA...

First off, the analysis here will turn out to be flawed. The system ultimately responsible will not emerge from out of the Gulf of Mexico, but rather, it will be two weak storms coming out of the Mid-western states.  This detail is critical; it'll mean that the disturbance from the midwest will not will be able to draw on additional Gulf moisture (or merge with another storm), thus sparing the region a major snowfall. The scenarios depicted by Accuweather are shown below and the lighter, less robust impact (scenario #1) is the more likely outcome.

Light snow is most likely overnight Saturday/early Sunday for a few hours, with another round of light snow Sunday night. Accumulations could top 3 inches.

Lost in all of the absurd speculation about this storm is the fact that this active pattern will continue overall through mid-month.

Every few days, we'll have to watch for storm systems traversing the lower-48. Any one of these storms will have the potential to bring a moderate snowfall to the region through the 15th or so.

Intellicast.com

Our next shot at significant wintry precip will come mid-week for Wednesday into Thursday, so stay tuned.

WINTER STORM FOR WEDNESDAY WILL INCLUDE A GLAZE OF ICE...

The second in what could ultimately be three storms this week will affect the area beginning overnight Tuesday/Wednesday and continue for much of Wednesday before ending Wednesday night.

The majority of the storm now looks like it's snow for areas in red. However, the lack of depth to the cold air in place ahead of the storm will lead to snow changing to sleet and freezing rain for a time, especially during the mid-morning hours.

Intellicast.com

Regarding the weekend, all numerical guidance shows a powerful winter storm tracking along the Atlantic seaboard from Saturday night into Sunday night. 

The closest approach of the low to our region will be Sunday into Sunday night. 
Right now, a significant accumulation is looking likely. 
There will be more than the usual amount of speculation about this storm, 
but the only thing we know for sure is that the odds of another heavy snowfall
 appear to be growing at this time. 

Speculation of total accumulations will not be dealt with until Thursday or Friday, 
but there is a chance that this system could be the most disruptive storm of 
the entire winter season to date.

 Stay tuned.

SNOWFALL IDEA FOR MONDAY'S STORM...

the trend in the last 1-2 days has been for a more substantial snowfall across the region. And just as we've seen with other storms this year, a shift north will take people off guard on Monday. There is room for a further north track of the storm on Monday, which could put sections of the region in the 4-8 inch areas. For now though, the idea here is a conservative one and should serve as a good backdrop for this event.

February is shaping up to be a snow-lovers' delight around these parts...get ready.

Next Update Monday night on the Wednesday storm.

THREE IMPORTANT STORMS TO WATCH AS WE OPEN FEBRUARY.....

But first, the weekend system is trending further north now. Most of the area will miss out on the bulk of the precip for this Saturday night into Sunday. A plain light rain is now the most likely outcome early Sunday, with a quick shot of light rain in the afternoon. The rest of the weekend looks dry. Conditions at game time Sunday night look to be warmer than the last update.

Some light snow is possible on Monday. Areas to the south and east of NYC and Long island stand the best shot of an accumulation snowfall. In fact, areas that got more than 2 inches of snow this past Wednesday stand the best chance of seeing similar or locally higher amounts.

NOAA: 7am Monday surface map

Thereafter, two potent storm systems will need to be closely monitored over the next seven to ten days. The first system is likely to make its closest approach on Wednesday into Thursday. A significant winter storm is possible, with a variety of precipitation types involved. The brunt of the storm would occur Wednesday before clearing. A change to plain rain or a mixed bag of precip is likely to transpire at the coast and in NYC, as only a shallow dome of cold air will be in place ahead of the oncoming storm.

Intellicast.com

Thereafter, another system will emerge out of the Gulf of Mexico for late next week, and make its closest approach by next Saturday. This time, a more substantial cold air mass will be in place which will either deflect the storm to our south and east, or aid in the development of a major snowstorm for the region. The track of the storm will determine how much, if any, impact there is to the area.

NOAA: Thursday morning surface map 2/6/14

Stay tuned.

SUPERBOWL SUNDAY SPELLS SEASONABLE TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS

1. Passing flurries from a coastal low for Tuesday night into Wednesday, particularly near the coast. A light dusting to an inch would be the maximum impact.

 

2. Moderating temps towards the end of the week. Pattern will transition from frequent arctic shots of cold air to that of a more regular, mid-winter cold around here from late this week through the first full week of February

 

3. Said patterns of this type will often feature building warmth in the southeast states. Implication of a clash between stubborn cold air entrenched to the north and warmth building to the south would make for a stormy month, with overall above normal precipitation for February.

image provided by tropicaltidbits.com

 

4. Next shot at significant winter weather will come Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning.  Developing low pressure could offer a shot at a wintry mix during this time.

Intellicast.com

 

5. Seasonably cold and dry for the historic Superbowl, with breezy conditions behind the departing storm. Next shot at a significant storm will come around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, as a parade of storms begins to traverse the lower-48 states.