WATCHING A COASTAL STORM FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

Behind our pre-Thanksgiving storm, the weather will be quiet, but cold for late this week into the weekend.

Intellicast

By Saturday and Saturday night, a frontal zone will draw near the region, adding plenty of cloud cover by Saturday night into Sunday. Some very light rain or a rain/snow mix is possible Saturday overnight into Sunday; areas to the east of NYC stand the best chance at seeing any precip during this time frame. Chances for light precip will persist into Monday, but amounts and location of the rain will be very spotty.

Meanwhile, a more organized low pressure will begin to take shape along the frontal zone to our south early next week. It is here where the forecast will depend on the track of this low. If there is an impact at all, the prospects for mainly rain in the city and coast are high, but as you get further inland, the chances for more significant frozen precip do exist if the timing and track are just right.

By Wednesday, skies clear out, but it'll be breezy in the wake of the departing storm. Temps for  Wednesday and Thursday will be near their normal levels for this time of year.

There are signs in the long term which point to a rather cold, stormy December in the making.

The bulk of the cold will be confined to our west, but will try and press in from the northern plains states. This should aid in the development of storms where the warmth (over the southern states) and cold intersect.

More to come Saturday or Sunday.

COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE 2002 ON THE MENU

1985 and 1994 also had highs of 41 degrees

1. Coastal storm will disrupt travel Tuesday night into Wednesday night. Heavy rain and gusty winds likely during this time frame, with strong gales out of the south. Mild and breezy. Much needed rainfall in most areas will average 2 inches, possibly more.

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2. After the storm clears, it's cold again! We could crack the top ten coldest Thanksgivings in the last 50 plus years at Central Park. Blustery Thursday; Big parade may have problems with the various floats, which may have to be sidelined due to winds gusting to 40mph!

Intellicast

3. Long term trends point towards below normal temps to open December. With storm track becoming evident, prospects for an above normal snow cover nationwide will continue. However, no El Nino/La Nina signal is expected through the winter, which will complicate any shot at clues beyond a week or two as to how harsh the winter will be.

BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES LIKELY FOR SUNDAY, WITH RECORD COLD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING

The latest push of arctic air over the eastern states will out-do the last two shots beginning late Saturday night and continuing through Monday.

The worst of the cold will be accompanied by very strong gusty winds Saturday night through Sunday, so that wind-chill values will be in the teens on Sunday and Sunday night, with actual high temps struggling to reach the mid 30s. The point-and-click temps from a few days ago depicting highs near 40 on Sunday are in retreat mode, as the models pick up on the ferocity of the cold, which, for the time of year compared to normal, are nothing short of brutal!

Old Intellicast Temps From Monday

New Intellicast Temps

NOAA Forecast for this Sunday's Highs back on Monday

New NOAA forecasted HIGHS Sunday

Temps will come up gradually Monday; winds will relax on Monday, but highs will still be well below normal levels, only making to the mid and upper 30s for high temps.

Tuesday and Wednesday are problematic. A series of storm systems will be the focus for the extended forecast.

Overall, the pattern is becoming more volatile. Airport travel during one of the busiest times of the year next week may be a big issue nationwide, even if our area does not feel the effects of any particular storm.

In terms of our weather, the development of a coastal storm (and its path) and a renewed shot of well below normal temps for late next week will have to be fine-tuned over the weekend.

Thanksgiving weekend looks chilly at this time.

PRECIP: The sure shot at rain will arrive on Friday, but amounts and intensity will be very light. A coastal storm will not get its act together this weekend. The bulk of the steadier rains should arrive with the passage of the front sometime Saturday morning, before things clear out. 

Small disturbances on the heels of the powerful arctic frontal boundary on Saturday evening will lead to the development of snow showers in most locations.

more to come this weekend...

MORE FRIGID TEMPS ON TAP TO OPEN THANKSGIVING WEEK

After a tranquil, late week temp rebound, we'll see the development of a storm for Saturday night into Sunday. This storm will most likely bring us a chilly rainfall and gusty winds during this time frame. Some wet snow flakes will mix at the end when precip lightens up Sunday morning. Well north and west of the city,  there is the prospect of a wet snowfall at the end of the storm, but details are still in the works.

What is much more certain is a renewed push of well-below normal temps for Sunday and Monday, with some relaxation for Tuesday. The intellicast temps are cold, but likely overdone for Sunday; low-level cold rushing in behind the storm should be plentiful, which is tough for forecast models to pick up.

Intellicast

Notice how far south the freezing line is for daytime HIGHS on Sunday in the NOAA graphic. Also notice that readings are only near 20F up near Minnesota!

NOAA HIGHS Sunday

With all of Canada covered in snow, combined with the plunging of the jet stream like we've seen for the past two weeks or so, the stage is set for more waves of winter-like air to have a free pass at the eastern states as we move into December.

NAFES Model Temps Show Well Below Normal For 11/26-12/1

more tomorrow or Wednesday

ANOTHER BRIEF SHOT OF WINTRY CHILL NEXT WEEK

1. After the snow and winter cold of this past mid-week, a mild weekend is ahead! Temps will make a run at 60 today. Clouds build in late, with light rain showers possible near the coast in the morning Saturday morning as a small disturbance moves through. Clearing briefly ensues Saturday afternoon for all areas.

Intellicast

2. Cloudiness and fog chances quickly increase again Saturday night and will continue through Sunday.  A warm front will push through Sunday midday, bringing with it light rain and drizzle; the development of fog looks likely even during the daylight hours, as the very mild air surges quickly in above a relatively cool land area.

3. Winds increase Sunday night, with rain developing ( up to a half inch) late Sunday into Monday morning.  Clearing skies Monday midday and into Monday night, but becoming chilly and remaining breezy (winds will shift from a mild southerly flow to a chilly northwesterly flow Monday afternoon).

NOAA: Precip amounts from 2am MON-7am MON 

4. Tuesday through Thursday are much cooler, but overnight temps are problematic; models still trying to determine the strength of the high pressure that will preside over our weather mid-week. The stronger the high, the colder the temps will be at night. This will need updating.  Temps creep up back to normal levels by next Friday through next weekend.

VIDEO: SNOW WILL FALL FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE, WITH WINTER-LIKE COLD TO FOLLOW

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MAJOR MID-WEEK COLD SHOT NEXT WEEK COULD SET OFF A POWERFUL COASTAL STORM

*****Prepare now for winter-like chill for late next week*****

But first,

Friday and Saturday are fair, but temps are knocked back to where they should be for this time of the year. It'll be very chilly on Friday, which will make it feel like it's in the 40s; actual temps will be closer to 50.

Another benign cold front will push through early next week. Dry conditions will prevail, but temps will take a hit later Monday and into Tuesday.

Overall, the upper level winds will continue to usher disturbances and reinforcing cool shots through as we progress through the week.

Intellicast

Intellicast

Once the dry cold front passes through Monday night,  the stage will be set for a very remarkable cold shot for mid-November, as temps are likely to plummet from Wednesday through Friday into next week. Readings DURING THE DAYTIME may not surpass 40 degrees, with a strong northwest wind.

NOAA HIGHS Wednesday

NOAA LOWS Wednesday night/Thurs

NOAA Highs Thursday

 

The details surrounding the evolution of a potential coastal storm are still in doubt for Wednesday of next week, but the ingredients are there for a significant rain-maker on the coast, with heavy inland snows on its northwest flank.

 

The last two years alone should be good enough evidence that snow can and will happen in late fall around these parts.

 

Stay tuned