Wednesday, July 17, 2013
Friday, July 12, 2013
ANOTHER SURGE OF HEAT, THEN A LATE JULY RETREAT
A very complicated forecast setup this week ended in disaster, as rain did in fact plague much of Friday across the tri state area.
Conditions will improve though, leaving the majority of the weekend dry for most spots. A risk of a stray heavy shower will exist tomorrow, then attention will turn to increasing heat for much of next week.
Storm chances will be low next week overall, especially for NYC and the coast. However, by Thursday, the overall pattern will allow higher chances for afternoon storms. This will continue into Friday as well.
Lurking on the horizon for the last week ten days of July is a renewed shot of cool air building in Northwest Canada.
The odds are high that once again, the heat of the summer of 2013 is transient. Some long range experts feel that the cooler pattern overall will follow from 7/20 to perhaps through the first ten days of August.
More Later.
Conditions will improve though, leaving the majority of the weekend dry for most spots. A risk of a stray heavy shower will exist tomorrow, then attention will turn to increasing heat for much of next week.
Intellicast's temps put forth in no uncertain terms that, if right, it's the hottest stretch of weather we've had thus far. Aiding us somewhat will be the appearance of some afternoon cumulus clouds, in combination with the "mixing out" of the higher humidity values; this should occur during the peak of the heating each day, and thus, keep the dangerous "heat index" values at bay.
Storm chances will be low next week overall, especially for NYC and the coast. However, by Thursday, the overall pattern will allow higher chances for afternoon storms. This will continue into Friday as well.
Lurking on the horizon for the last week ten days of July is a renewed shot of cool air building in Northwest Canada.
The odds are high that once again, the heat of the summer of 2013 is transient. Some long range experts feel that the cooler pattern overall will follow from 7/20 to perhaps through the first ten days of August.
More Later.
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Sunday, July 7, 2013
DECREASING HEAT, BUT INCREASING STORM THREATS THIS WEEK
1. Repetitive pattern which has dominated the summer thus far will settle in again, making it easy to see temps lowering for high temps, but just as hard to pinpoint rain chances this week. Buckling of the jet stream is once again responsible.
4. Tropics will turn active, with the Southeast US at risk for at least heavy rains late week in to next week.
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| WPC: Jet stream through Monday
2. PRECIP: Most days are fair game for an afternoon thunderstorm for north and west of NYC. City and points east have their best chances Monday, Wednesday, Thursday night/Friday. Heavier, more widespread rainfall looks like it would happen for a good part of Friday, as front stalls in our vicinity. Saturday, the chances for rain diminish except for in the late afternoon; Sunday's the better bet, with even less chance for afternoon storms.
3. TEMPS: Cooling off each day, with bust potential for Friday if steady, widespread rains do develop. Windiest day will be Wednesday.
WPC: Highs for Friday and Saturday:
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| Intellicast Temps |
4. Tropics will turn active, with the Southeast US at risk for at least heavy rains late week in to next week.
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| Accuweather |
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Sunday, June 30, 2013
AS WE HEAD FOR THE FOURTH, RAIN CHANCES WILL WANE
1. NYC and Long Island were in a virtual rain-free hole this week, while areas to the north and south received at least an inch of precip in the last seven days. Thus, the overall forecasts proved to be unreliable for the metro area this week.
2. Persistance will pay off in terms of planning Monday and Tuesday; showers and storms will be relegated to areas north and west of nyc each day, with NYC/Long Island largely missing out
3. Change in the overall pattern will reduce rain chances even further from Wednesday through the weekend, as a more stable air mass takes hold. Fewer triggers in the atmosphere to ignite daily storms. Highs will climb slowly each day, with typical nighttime lows in the 60s and 70s.
4. NYC will fall just shy of all-time June record rainfall.
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| Intellicast precip amounts for the week |
3. Change in the overall pattern will reduce rain chances even further from Wednesday through the weekend, as a more stable air mass takes hold. Fewer triggers in the atmosphere to ignite daily storms. Highs will climb slowly each day, with typical nighttime lows in the 60s and 70s.
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| Intellicast |
4. NYC will fall just shy of all-time June record rainfall.
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| Accuweather |
Wednesday, June 26, 2013
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