HEAVY RAIN THREAT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

A storm system developing in the Gulf of Mexico may combine with an oncoming mid-west system to produce a potentially heavy rainfall for Friday through Saturday afternoon...

At the very least, conditions will become humid by Thursday, as the winds turn to the south and begin to pump in a moist, tropical air mass...


In spite of the threat of several inches of rain in the worst case scenario (number 2), and in spite of what may become a late week media hype-fest, most of the region can still manage to handle upwards of three inches of rain without any major problems.

The most susceptible areas would be any region near streams and creeks, as well as typical urban/poor drainage flooding on the highways.

The best chance of seeing any flooding would be for Northeast New Jersey, where the soil has taken on a lot of water over the past month in that particular area. Upwards of 2.5 inches would be enough to cause widespread flash flooding

more later...

SUNDAY'S STORMS WILL HERALD IN A COOLER WEEK NEXT WEEK

The ingredients for storms to become severe on Sunday was alluded to earlier this past week

NOAA's official outlook for this Sunday is very close to the original idea, but does not include the coastal sections as of yet for the strongest storms

Nevertheless, widespread storms will make their way through the region LATE Sunday afternoon and night, and linger into much of Monday afternoon, as the front which will cool us down slows to a crawl.

A flash flooding threat will exist for western Sections of NYC and points to the north. To the east across Long Island, lesser rainfall amounts will take place through Monday night, but the idea of at least an inch of precip area-wide is a good bet.

Once we get past Monday, things look pretty dry. Temps will return to normal; the indication is that this will remain so through a good part of the week, with the heat staying well to our south.

Intellicast

WPC Forecasted High Temps for June 7

VIDEO FROM YESTERDAY...THIS TIME IT WORKS

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SUDDENLY IT'S SUMMER!

The cool and windy weather of the Memorial Day weekend will be a faint memory this coming week, as the first sustained summer-like weather pattern of the season takes shape this week in ernest.

Intellicast

The chances for rain will be limited this week. The first offering at some scattered showers will be late tuesday night into Wednesday, with only isolated chances for Thursday through Saturday. A shot at a widespread severe weather episode with afternoon thunderstorms will arrive around Sunday afternoon; this will need to be watched. 

ANOTHER WEEKEND FORECAST DEBACLE IN THE MAKING ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA.

The overly optimistic forecast from last weekend may be followed for a second straight week by another miserable turnabout in the forecast for the Memorial Day weekend. 

As low pressure departs Friday, another will follow in behind it from the south and then only slowly pull away for Saturday. As such, the potential is markedly increasing that the benign prognostications for this upcoming weekend may be left by the wayside.

Accuweather

 As noted before int the video, a steady, soaking rain and a few thunderstorms will develop Thursday evening and continue into much of Friday. Another round of rain should follow in behind this first batch of precipitation and last through much of the day Saturday before slowly abating. The potential now exists for another inch or two of rainfall from Friday through Saturday evening (not counting what falls Thursday through midnight with the showers and thunderstorms for the evening commute), with residual cloud cover and windy conditions lingering into Sunday as the main push of rainfall exits for Sunday.

With the onshore wind set to prevail through all of Sunday, temps will struggle into the mid 60s for much of the weekend, with the exception of Monday, where the overall weather picture looks to be its best. 

OLD INTELLICAST TEMPS:

NEW INTELLICAST TEMPS:

 

Temps may try to make a run at 80 Tuesday and Wednesday, before the next front arrives with a risk of a shower Wednesday afternoon and night. 

All in all, the stage is set for yet another weekend where forecasts changed dramatically just before the actual period in question.

 

More later

VIDEO: THURSDAY'S SOAKING STORMS, THEN A MEMORIAL DAY GEM!

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MID-MAY WILL TURN ACTIVE, WITH WET CONDITIONS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE REGION

This weekend's forecast was way too optimistic from just about all sources. And that's putting it lightly.

 The next ten days starting today will be characterized by a lot of bouts with wet weather, including thunderstorms.  The exception will be days where it's completely dry; we're likely to see a brief respite  Wednesday and much of the weekend, but every other day is dicey.

The prospects for storms will oscillate as we head through the course of the work week.  this is due to the fact that a front will be bouncing around our neck of the woods for days. So while at first, the front ushers in progressively very muggy conditions by Monday-Wednesday, it turns cool for the balance of Wednesday, before getting muggy again by Thursday!

Humid air masses and nearby fronts will lead to frequent spells of primarily afternoon and early evening rainfalls this week, which should easily average several inches for most locations.

WPC 5-day rainfall totals

Severe thunderstorms may occur thursday. The ingredients are there for unusually intense storms (more to follow later).

DAILY HIGHLIGHTS:

TODAY; Periods of showers, ending after midnight.

MONDAY: Some clearing, but slow-moving thunderstorms will threaten the region in the late afternoon. Heavy downpours a good bet with any one storm. Storms clear the region by late evening, but fog will develop late.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Best chance for storms will be north and west of NYC in the afternoon, with lesser chances towards the city and  coast.

THURSDAY: Best chance for widespread strong to severe thunderstorms to develop and move from west to east in the evening.

FRIDAY-MONDAY: Looking dry, but temps will be held to near 70, with 60s at the shoreline.

Intellicast

Intellicast

Intellicast

Overall, a low confidence scenario for the upcoming week, so updates will be needed.

Give credit to Mt Holly Weather Service and Climate Predictions Center for being the most out-front on this week's pattern .